Between October 21-25, the FourSight task force convened in Washington D.C. for a workshop on China’s Strategic Futures. Participants learned about contemporary debates in China policy across the Quad countries, examined the future of Chinese power and perceptions through structured exercises, co-wrote a joint report to be published in November 2024, and presented their findings to U.S. policymakers.
FourSight Wrap Up
Day 1
The task force formally kicked off at the ORF America office with a keynote on the arc of Chinese power, followed by sessions on India-China relations and the United States, Australia, and the Quad.
Speakers:
Greg Brown, Senior Analyst, ASPI DC
Dhruva Jaishankar, Executive Director, ORF America
Dougal McInnes, Minister-Counselor Political, Embassy of Australia, Washington D.C.
Amb. Sripriya Ranganathan, Deputy Chief of Mission, Embassy of India, Washington D.C.
Nadege Rolland, Distinguished Fellow, China Studies, National Bureau of Asian Research
Day 2
The task force was briefed by subject matter experts on China’s domestic politics and leadership, economics and technology, and military power and security. These sessions covered various themes relating to China’s elite decision making, strategies and concepts of internal security, economic policymaking, industrial policy, nuclear modernization, military reforms, and gray-zone tactics. The day concluded with an informal reception at the Embassy of India with officials from the Political and Military wings.
Speakers:
Martin Chorzempa, Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Sheena Greitens, Associate Professor, LBJ School of Public Affairs
Isaac Kardon, Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Liza Tobin, Senior Director for Economy, Special Competitive Studies Project
Joseph Torigian, Assistant Professor, American University
Philip Saunders, Distinguished Research Fellow, National Defense University
Day 3
The task force convened at ASPI DC’s office for a scenario planning exercise, also known as Alternative Futures exercise. After framing a research question, participants identified and ranked more than 125 variables that may determine China’s strategic outlook in 2030. Following an intensive discussion, participants selected two key variables and constructed a 2x2 matrix with each quadrant depicting a future scenario. They then constructed narratives for each scenario within smaller groups.
The day concluded with a networking reception hosted by ORF America, where participants spoke to young professionals about their experience on China studies and the Quad. More details here.
Speakers:
Greg Brown, Senior Analyst, ASPI DC
Day 4
The task force returned to ORF America for a day of writing. By the late afternoon, the task force had completed a 3,500-word joint report examining China’s strategic outlook in 2030, as well as prepared a presentation highlighting key arguments and findings of the joint report.
Day 5
On the final day of the workshop, participants briefed officials from the U.S. Department of Defense, the White House National Security Council staff, and the U.S. Department of State on their findings. During each briefing, participants fielded various questions on U.S.-China comparative military advantages, recent developments in India-China relations, Chinese elite decision making, and cross-straits competition. The day and the workshop ended with an informal reception.
Speakers:
Dr. Matthew Daniels, Senior Advisor, Office of Net Assessment, U.S. Department of Defense
Ms. Joy Li, Director, White House National Security Council
Ms. Nancy Jackson, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for India, U.S. Department of State
Ms. Katherine Chin, Global Unit Chief for East Asia, U.S. Department of State
Office of China Coordination, U.S. Department of State
