Background

ORF America along with the German Marshall Fund and the Sweden Ministry of Foreign Affairs hosted the 20th India Trilateral Forum in Stockholm. Bringing together over 45 participants including government officials and corporate leaders from India, U.S., Sweden, France, UK and Germany for conversations and discussions on strengthening U.S.-India-EU trilateral cooperation.

Discussion Summary

Held in the backdrop of the ongoing Ukraine conflict, the panel discussions featured themes such as defense sector reforms in India, supply chains resiliency, the Russia-China “no-limits” partnership and the Russia challenge as seen from India, the U.S. and the EU. All three regions have taken different responses to the Ukraine war, yet participants underlined the importance of the UN charter and the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity. While the U.S. and Europe are channeling its resources towards helping Ukraine defend its territory, India is more concerned with the economic and energy costs of the conflict.

There was strong convergence however on the fact that no matter how this war ends, Russia will emerge weaker and more dependent on an external patron like China for economic assistance and military capabilities. Participants also highlighted the imperative of the China challenge- be it across the disputed border and the Indian Ocean region for India or as a “systemic”/whole of government challenge to Europe and the U.S. Coupled with a closer Russia-China “no-limits” partnership, participants agreed that structural factors therefore portend closer and stronger trilateral cooperation between India, the U.S. and the EU.

Participants homed in on this conclusion to suggest that India will only further accelerate the diversification of its defense and military platforms away from Russia; a trend that was underway even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Government officials also touted the standing up of new mechanisms like the US-EU and EU-India Trade and Technology Councils (TTCs) which signals close levels of political trust between three like-minded democracies. On the U.S.-India partnership, the 2+2 dialogue along with 40 plus inter-agency working groups conveys efforts to channel and implement hard issues through the bureaucracy.