The IBSA+Indonesia Energy Transitions Dashboard (Desktop View)
Brazil, India, Indonesia, and South Africa hold complementary positions in the clean energy value chain — manufacturing scale, procurement and inputs, green fuels, and critical minerals. This dashboard tracks what they're endowed with, what capital they attract, what it costs them to borrow, and how much of what gets announced actually gets built.
THE ANCHORS
Four complementary roles in the clean energy value chain
STARTING CONDITIONS
Emission and Energy Mix
COST OF CAPITAL
for IBSA+Indonesia vs. Global benchmarks
THE INVESTMENT MAP
Where clean manufacturing capital is going
FROM ANNOUNCEMENT TO ASSET
Conversion of announced investment to concrete projects
Notes & Sources
How to read this dashboard
The Anchors — four roles in the clean-energy value chain
India (manufacturing scale), South Africa (procurement & critical inputs), Brazil (green fuels & clean grid) and Indonesia (critical minerals) hold complementary positions covering stages of the chain otherwise concentrated in China.
Why This Grouping — population, GDP, emissions, G20
~25% of population: combined ~2.0B of ~8.2B (India 1.46B, Indonesia 286M, Brazil 212M, South Africa 64M). ~7% of GDP: ~$8.5T of ~$115T nominal. ~12% of emissions: India ~7.8%, Indonesia ~2.3%, Brazil ~1.3%, South Africa ~1.0%. 4 consecutive G20 presidencies: Indonesia 2022 → India 2023 → Brazil 2024 → South Africa 2025.
Sources: UN World Population Prospects 2024; IMF World Economic Outlook 2025; EDGAR 2025 / Global Carbon Budget 2025; G20 presidency records.
CO₂ emissions per capita vs high-income countries (1990–2024)
All four sit far below high-income per-capita levels; South Africa is the coal-driven outlier. The shared condition is decarbonising while still developing.
Source: Global Carbon Budget 2025; population from various sources (2024). CO₂ from fossil fuels and industry, excluding land-use change.
Total energy supply by source (2023)
Coal dominates Indonesia (35.6%) and India; South Africa's power is coal-weighted; Brazil is distinct for large biofuels and significant hydropower.
Source: IEA energy balances, 2023.
Top clean-manufacturing investment destinations outside China
Of the top 15 destinations for actual clean manufacturing & industry investment (2018–2026), the US leads (~$160B). Outside China, India ranks 2nd (~$46B) and Indonesia 4th (~$21B); Brazil 21st, South Africa 49th. "Actual" tracks committed projects, not announcements. Billion 2024 USD.
Source: Rhodium Group, Clean Investment Monitor (March 2026).
The capital trap — utility-scale solar cost of capital (2015–2024)
Brazil ~12.5%, India ~11.5%, Indonesia ~11%, South Africa ~13.5%, against a North America / Europe benchmark of ~5.0–6.5%. The same project costs far more to finance — country-risk pricing plus fragmented taxonomies and reporting rules.
Source: IEA Cost of Capital Observatory (2025); OECD (2025). Nominal, post-tax, local currency.
Net-zero timelines and the price tag to get there
India ~$22.7T by 2070 (cumulative; ~$6.5T gap needs international finance); Brazil ~$6.0T by 2050 (energy sector); Indonesia ~$1.2T by 2060 (~$50B/yr); South Africa ~$330B by 2050 (~$98B in first five years).
Not directly comparable — scopes and horizons differ. Target years are official government commitments; the Brazil figure is a BNEF estimate. Bubble size is √-scaled for legibility, not linearly proportional.
Sources: NITI Aayog (2026); Bappenas / Ministry of Finance (2026); Presidential Climate Commission, JET-IP 2023–2027; BloombergNEF (2025).
The supply-chain trap — concentration + cost
~90% of battery-grade lithium refined in China; >60% of rare earths processed in China; ~70% of clean-tech manufacturing value in China; diversifying carries a ~30% cost premium, driven by the higher cost of capital.
Source: IEA critical minerals and clean-tech supply-chain analysis.
CleanTech project execution rates (announced 2018–2023)
Share reaching operation or construction by Q2 2026: India 86%, Indonesia 85%, Brazil 49%, South Africa 10%. Cohort-controlled, dollar-weighted; denominator includes cancelled projects, so these are delivery rates, not survival rates.
Source: Rhodium Group, Global CIM facility-level dataset (2026-Q2).
Announced vs. actually deployed investment (2018–2021)
Indonesia: critical minerals show the widest gap ($9.3B announced vs $3.9B actual). India: batteries $4.15B vs $0.95B, solar $3.48B vs $1.54B. Brazil: EVs $2B announced but near-zero deployed in this window.
Source: Rhodium Group, Clean Investment Monitor / Global CIM facility-level dataset (March 2026 / 2026-Q2).
Creatd by: Medha Prasanna, Program Coordinator, Energy and Climate Program and Pietro Zecca, Summer 2026 intern. Rhodium Group provided the Clean Investment Monitor Data Sets and feedback