The IBSA+Indonesia Energy Transitions Dashboard (Mobile View)
Brazil, India, Indonesia, and South Africa hold complementary positions in the clean energy value chain — manufacturing scale, procurement and inputs, green fuels, and critical minerals. This dashboard tracks what they're endowed with, what capital they attract, what it costs them to borrow, and how much of what gets announced actually gets built.
Notes & Sources
How to read this dashboard
Complementary roles in the clean-energy value chain
India (manufacturing scale), South Africa (procurement and critical inputs), Brazil (green fuels and clean power), and Indonesia (critical minerals) hold complementary positions across the clean-energy value chain.
| Country | Evidence covered | Source |
|---|---|---|
| India | Solar-module manufacturing capacity of approximately 210 GW at end-2025; 173.1 GW listed under ALMM List I when the report was released. | Mercom India, State of Solar PV Manufacturing in India 2026 |
| Official estimate of approximately 172 GW of cumulative domestic solar-module manufacturing capacity by the end of FY2025–26. | Government of India, Press Information Bureau | |
| India’s position as a major global manufacturing hub for solar and wind technologies. | IEA, The State of Clean Technology Manufacturing | |
| Non-fossil sources reaching 52.57% of installed electricity capacity; emissions-intensity and non-fossil-capacity targets for 2035; net-zero target for 2070. | Government of India, New India Samachar; India’s 2031–35 NDC, UNFCCC | |
| ALMM requirements for domestically manufactured modules and cells; estimated US$22.7 trillion investment requirement and approximately US$6.5 trillion financing gap for net zero. | Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, ALMM; NITI Aayog, Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero | |
| South Africa | Concentration of global platinum-group-metal reserves and South Africa’s position as the world’s largest manganese producer. | South Africa Critical Minerals and Metals Strategy 2025; USGS, South Africa mineral-industry profile |
| More than US$16 billion in committed private investment mobilised through the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme. | NDC Partnership, South Africa’s REIPPPP | |
| Coal accounted for 83% of electricity generated domestically in 2024. | Statistics South Africa, A breakdown of South Africa’s energy mix | |
| Net-zero target for 2050; 2035 NDC range of 320–380 MtCO₂e, equivalent to approximately 16–29% below 2022 levels. The target is not assessed as fully compatible with a 1.5°C fair-share pathway. | NDC Partnership, South Africa; Climate Action Tracker, South Africa’s 2035 NDC | |
| ET Energies–Isondo Precious Metals agreement to develop PEM electrolyser stacks and the first close of the SA-H2 Fund at ZAR 3 billion in 2026. | ET Energies, company announcement; European Commission, SA-H2 Fund announcement | |
| Five-year Just Energy Transition Investment Plan requirements and longer-term estimates of the investment needed for South Africa’s transition to net zero. | Presidential Climate Commission, Just Energy Transition Investment Plan; National Business Initiative, Just Transition and Climate Pathways | |
| Brazil | Brazil’s position as the world’s second-largest biofuels producer and its growing low-carbon hydrogen and green-fuels industries. | U.S. Energy Information Administration, Brazil country analysis; Government of Brazil, Low-Carbon Hydrogen Programme |
| Renewable energy share of total final energy consumption and Brazil’s dependence on imported natural gas and coal. | World Bank, Renewable energy consumption; Empresa de Pesquisa Energética, Brazilian Energy Balance | |
| Net-zero target for 2050 and Brazil’s 2035 NDC range of 59–67% below 2005 emissions levels. | Brazil’s First Biennial Transparency Report, UNFCCC; Climate Action Tracker, Brazil’s 2035 NDC | |
| Fuel of the Future Law and its expected mobilisation of at least R$260 billion, approximately US$47 billion, in private investment. | Government of Brazil, Fuel of the Future | |
| Acelen Renewables securing US$1.5 billion in 2026 to begin construction of a Bahia SAF and renewable-diesel biorefinery; commercial operation is expected in 2029. | S&P Global, Acelen financing announcement; Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Project HEFACo | |
| More than US$6 trillion in estimated energy investment through 2050 under a net-zero pathway and assessment of Brazil’s recent emissions trajectory. | BloombergNEF, New Energy Outlook: Brazil; World Resources Institute, G20 climate-progress analysis | |
| Indonesia | Indonesia’s position as the world’s largest nickel producer and holder of the largest reported nickel reserves. | USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026; IEA, The battery industry has entered a new phase |
| Indonesia’s expanding position in anode-active-material, cathode-active-material and cathode-precursor manufacturing. | IEA, Global EV Outlook 2026: Electric-vehicle batteries | |
| Coal, oil, natural gas and renewable-energy shares in Indonesia’s total energy supply. | IEA, Energy Statistics Data Browser | |
| Indonesia’s 2030 unconditional and conditional NDC targets and its stated objective of reaching net-zero emissions by 2060. | Indonesia’s First Biennial Transparency Report, UNFCCC; IEA, Energy Sector Roadmap to Net Zero in Indonesia | |
| Multiple Indonesian HPAL plants producing nickel intermediates for the battery industry and approximately US$121 billion in proposed investment opportunities for an integrated EV-battery ecosystem. | Wood Mackenzie, The rise of Indonesian HPAL; Antara News, Indonesia’s EV-battery investment push | |
| Estimated annual requirement of Rp794–800 trillion to reach net zero by 2060, compared with approximately Rp73.5 trillion in current annual public climate spending. | Antara News, Indonesia’s climate-finance requirements |
Why This Grouping — population, GDP, emissions, G20
~25% of population: combined ~2.0B of ~8.2B (India 1.46B, Indonesia 286M, Brazil 212M, South Africa 64M). ~7% of GDP: ~$8.5T of ~$115T nominal. ~12% of emissions: India ~7.8%, Indonesia ~2.3%, Brazil ~1.3%, South Africa ~1.0%. 4 consecutive G20 presidencies: Indonesia 2022 → India 2023 → Brazil 2024 → South Africa 2025.
Sources: UN World Population Prospects 2024; IMF World Economic Outlook 2025; EDGAR 2025 / Global Carbon Budget 2025; G20 presidency records.
CO₂ emissions per capita vs high-income countries (1990–2024)
All four sit far below high-income per-capita levels; South Africa is the coal-driven outlier. The shared condition is decarbonising while still developing.
Source: Global Carbon Budget 2025; population from various sources (2024). CO₂ from fossil fuels and industry, excluding land-use change.
Total energy supply by source (2023) and RE Power Capacity (2025)
Sources: IEA energy balances, 2023; and IRENA (2026), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026, International Renewable Energy Agency. Renewable capacity figures are for year-end 2025.
Top clean-manufacturing investment destinations outside China
Of the top 15 destinations for actual clean manufacturing & industry investment (2018–2026), the US leads (~$160B). Outside China, India ranks 2nd (~$46B) and Indonesia 4th (~$21B); Brazil 21st, South Africa 49th. "Actual" tracks committed projects, not announcements. Billion 2024 USD.
Source: Rhodium Group, Clean Investment Monitor (2026 Q2).
The capital trap — utility-scale solar cost of capital (2015–2024)
Brazil ~12.5%, India ~11.5%, Indonesia ~11%, South Africa ~13.5%, against a North America / Europe benchmark of ~5.0–6.5%. The same project costs far more to finance — country-risk pricing plus fragmented taxonomies and reporting rules.
Source: IEA Cost of Capital Observatory (2025); OECD (2025). Nominal, post-tax, local currency.
Net-zero timelines and the price tag to get there
India ~$22.7T by 2070 (cumulative; ~$6.5T gap needs international finance); Brazil ~$6.0T by 2050 (energy sector); Indonesia ~$1.2T by 2060 (~$50B/yr); South Africa ~$330B by 2050 (~$98B in first five years).
Not directly comparable — scopes and horizons differ. Target years are official government commitments; the Brazil figure is a BNEF estimate. Bubble size is √-scaled for legibility, not linearly proportional.
Sources: NITI Aayog (2026); Bappenas / Ministry of Finance (2026); Presidential Climate Commission, JET-IP 2023–2027; BloombergNEF (2025).
The supply-chain trap — concentration + cost
~90% of battery-grade lithium refined in China; >60% of rare earths processed in China; ~70% of clean-tech manufacturing value in China; diversifying carries a ~30% cost premium, driven by the higher cost of capital.
Source: IEA critical minerals and clean-tech supply-chain analysis.
CleanTech project execution rates (announced 2018–2023)
Share reaching operation or construction by Q2 2026: India 86%, Indonesia 85%, Brazil 49%, South Africa 10%. Cohort-controlled, dollar-weighted; denominator includes cancelled projects, so these are delivery rates, not survival rates.
Source: Rhodium Group, Clean Investment Monitor (2026-Q2).
Announced vs. Actually Deployed Investment
Announced reflects investment commitments dated to this period; deployed reflects capital physically flowing during this period, from the quarterly spend data. Because large projects spend over several years, the two won't match within a window — and that mismatch is the point: it shows where commitment is running ahead of build-out (a future pipeline) versus where spending is catching up to or exceeding past commitments (execution landing now).
Source: Rhodium Group, Clean Investment Monitor (2026-Q2).
| Sector | Technology | Subcategories |
|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing | Solar | Modules, cells, wafers, polysilicon |
| Wind | Blades and nacelles | |
| Batteries | Electrode active materials, cells, modules | |
| Critical minerals | Lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite | |
| Zero-emission vehicles | Battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles | |
| Industry | Cement | Carbon capture and storage (CCS), low-carbon ordinary Portland cement (OPC), OPC alternatives, clinker substitution |
| Iron & steel | Hydrogen and Fossil-based Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) with and without CCS, blast furnace with CCS, electrochemical approaches, biomass-based traditional ironmaking | |
| sustainable aviation fuels | Hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids, alcohol to jet, biomass using Fischer-Tropsch technology, power to liquid | |
| Electric Power | Solar | Solar PV, concentrating solar power |
| Wind | Onshore wind, offshore wind | |
| Nuclear | Conventional and advanced nuclear reactors | |
| Other clean electricity | Geothermal, landfill gas, hydroelectric, biomass | |
| Storage | Batteries, pumped storage, long-duration storage | |
| Transport | Purchase of zero-emission vehicles | Battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles |
Created by: Medha Prasanna, Program Coordinator, Energy and Climate Program and Pietro Zecca, Summer 2026 intern. Rhodium Group provided the Clean Investment Monitor Data Sets and feedback