By Dhruva Jaishankar and Tanvi Madan
This article was originally published in Foreign Affairs, April 15, 2021.
Last month, a once obscure diplomatic grouping suddenly took center stage in the defining geopolitical competition of this century. When the leaders of the Quad—a coalition among Australia, India, Japan, and the United States—met virtually on March 12, its members proclaimed a new chapter in Indo-Pacific competition. The four leaders called the gathering a “spark of hope to light the path ahead” and promised collaboration on everything from COVID-19 vaccination campaigns and maritime security to climate change and infrastructure investment.
The logic behind such an effort is clear. A more assertive China is extending its influence across the Indo-Pacific and around the world. Existing alliances and institutions aren’t up to the task of addressing the consequences, and domestic politics across the region mean that an “Asian NATO” is off the table. That’s where the Quad comes in: as its members increasingly find themselves at loggerheads with Beijing, the group has become a test case for a new kind of flexible multilateral partnership designed to shape the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, offer alternatives, and alter China’s calculations. The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden has staked its regional strategy on this approach.
Nevertheless, the Quad’s growing public profile comes with a parallel rise in expectations. Members and other partners increasingly look to the group to deliver on a range of thorny and intractable issues—including Chinese territorial revisionism and Beijing’s efforts to weaponize economic interdependence and rewrite international norms. To make good on those expectations, the Quad will need to deepen existing security cooperation, economic partnerships, and multilateral coordination. If it succeeds, the group can help ensure a “free, open, inclusive, and resilient Indo-Pacific,” as its leaders have promised. If it fails, though, the Quad risks a world characterized by territorial insecurity, economic coercion, impotent international organizations, and authoritarian technology.
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Dhruva Jaishankar is Executive Director, Observer Research Foundation America.
Tanvi Madan is Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution.