By Harsh V Pant, Prithvi Iyer, Nivedita Kapoor, Aarshi Tirkey and Kartik Bommakanti
Preface
The word ‘unprecedented’ has often been used in the past year-and-a-half to describe the sheer scale of disruption that COVID-19 has unleashed upon the world. Indeed, now we know that the pandemic has spared no one, its wrath reaching the most cosmopolitan of cities and the remotest villages alike. Yet, in early 2020, as the outbreak of COVID-19 was declared a pandemic, leaders across the world would have thought the battle could be quickly won. They sounded off a war cry: Test, Trace, and Isolate. Countries shut down all movement in their cities and towns and closed their borders too, in an attempt to contain the spread of the virus. As lockdowns became the norm, the global economy was buffeted with strong headwinds, and many countries soon plunged into deep recession. Today, while we have a count of over 4 million lives lost (and counting), the real human cost of the pandemic remains immeasurable. The battle has not been won; the war is far from over.
The pandemic revealed the strengths and weaknesses of various governance systems, social welfare policies, principles of economic organisation, and multilateralism. It has also had an extraordinary impact on the churn that was already underway in the global order, even before the first reports of a ‘strange respiratory disease’ started coming out of Wuhan. Growing geopolitical rivalries—characterised by the need to gain technological, economic and military superiority—continue to disrupt the delicate balance of power that exists in the world today. The rise of protectionist sentiments, coupled with the growing discontent towards multilateralism and globalization, are dramatically changing the post-Second World War consensus on managing an increasingly integrated, albeit distrustful world.
As India navigates the challenges of this evolving global order amidst the massive fallout of the pandemic, its policy choices need to respond to the current complexities and reflect the needs, aspirations and will of its people. This first iteration of ORF’s “Foreign Policy Survey”, conducted in collaboration with Impetus Research, endeavours to understand the opinions and views of the country’s youth on some of the most important questions that confront India and the choices that the nation must make in this fast changing global environment.
The survey—which reached out to the urban youth and was conducted prior to the second wave—found an optimistic assessment of India’s foreign policy and an agreement with many of the current government’s recent policy interventions and external engagements. More than seven of every 10 (72 percent) of the respondents rated the conduct of India’s foreign policy as either very good or good. Not surprisingly, global pandemics were assessed as India’s biggest foreign policy challenge, followed closely by terrorism, climate change, and border conflicts. The apprehension regarding China’s rise was reflected in the low trust ratings for India’s eastern neighbour. In contrast, the United States was rated highly in the survey, mirroring the direction taken by Indian foreign policy in recent years. The poll also takes a deep dive into the nuances of the Indian youth’s outlook on the economy, globalisation, and multilateralism, as well as the performance of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Indian government on key issues.
Reflecting this survey’s goal of gaining a better understanding and a more rounded view of the youth’s perception and opinion of India’s foreign policy, the authors of this report are young people who have a stake in the nation’s journey in the coming years. Our young scholars—Prithvi Iyer, Nivedita Kapoor, Aarshi Tirkey, and Kartik Bommakanti, led by ORF’s Director of Studies and Head of Strategic Studies Programme, Professor Harsh V Pant have worked through this difficult period to produce this very important survey available to all who engage with India and its external relations. As times change, so do aspirations and perceptions. ORF will institutionalise this Foreign Policy Survey as an annual endeavour to better track how India’s young demographic comprehends the country’s foreign policy goals and its approach to its growing role in world affairs.
Congratulations to the entire team for this effort. We are confident that ‘The ORF Foreign Policy Survey 2021’ will help bring to the fore voices of young India and help us understand the generation who will shape this country’s partnerships and determine its place in the global order.
Dr Samir Saran
President, ORF
August 2021
Executive Summary
Urban Indian youth surveyed in this poll have a positive assessment of the conduct of the country’s foreign policy, with 72 percent of respondents rating it as either very good or good. This is reflected in their support for some of the government’s key foreign policies, including on China, Pakistan, and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad). The area where the government has the respondents’ least support concerns the country’s withdrawal from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
The respondents’ level of concern about key foreign policy challenges – global pandemics, terrorism, border conflict with China, climate change, and border conflict with Pakistan – runs parallel to their awareness of the most pressing issues facing India. Moreover, the youth perceive the country’s challenges from its border conflicts with China to be more acute than those emanating from P
This assessment explains the views of the youth regarding goal-setting in Indian foreign policy, with the following as the top three priorities: strengthening the Indian economy; combatting terrorism; and improving relations with immediate neighbours (other than Pakistan and China). The next priorities are improving ties with the United States (US), and resolving differences with China and P
On questions pertaining to India’s neighbourhood, respondents were most trusting of Sri Lanka (68 percent) and displayed low levels of trust towards Pakistan with only 10 percent of respondents indicating positive trust ratings. They also hold a positive view of the Maldives, Nepal, and Bhutan.
The respondents expressed an overarching optimism on the status of India’s bilateral relationships with its neighbours, especially Sri Lanka (68 percent of respondents saw it as a burgeoning bilateral relationship).
Eight of every ten (80 percent) of the respondents felt India has poor or very poor relations with Pakistan. Respondents also believed relations with the Maldives, Bhutan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan have improved in recent years and hold greater
More than seven of every ten (77 percent) of the respondents rated the US as the country they trust the most among the leading global powers. The US was followed by Australia, Russia, Japan, France, the United Kingdom (UK), and the European Union (EU). The country that the respondents distrusted the most (77 percent) was China. These perceptions have also been reflected in the respondents’ vision for the future, about which powers will be India’s leading partners in the coming decade: the Quad, Russia, and Europe are preferred, in that order.
The high level of concern about the rise of China as a global power is an important factor driving the response of urban youth regarding Indian foreign policy. The survey found 62 percent of respondents were of the view that India should abandon non-alignment in case of rising US-China tensions. The respondents expressed concern not only about China interfering in India’s neighbourhood, but also about its military and economic superiority. They also expressed fears of a breakout of war.
More than seven of every 10 (76 percent) were of the view that India’s preferred mode of engagement should be global cooperation through multilateral organisations, and over 74 percent felt that India’s quest to acquire a permanent seat at the United Nations (UN) Security Council was a very important goal for India. The respondents also displayed a higher level of awareness of older multilateral organisations and forums such as the UN and the World Trade Organization, with the exception of the Non-Aligned Movement. In fact, two-thirds of the urban youth respondents said they had not heard of the forum.
There is low awareness about more recent platforms and forums, such as the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), the Group of 20 (G20), and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Regional groupings score much lower than the bigger power groupings on the list (G20).
The urban youth are deeply divided over the impact of globalisation on India and its economy, society and culture, their standard of living, travel to and from other countries, and education opportunities overseas. While the opportunity to study abroad is viewed positively, the optimism regarding moving abroad to work or stay is markedly much lower. Moreover, an overwhelming 71 percent of respondents felt that the ‘AatmaNirbhar Bharat Abhiyan’, the Indian government’s economic self-reliance mission, would be good for India.
This survey was originally published by Observer Research Foundation, August 15, 2021. Access the full report here.