By: Vivek Mishra
This article originally appeared in ORF on November 22, 2024.
This article is part of the series, "Reignited agendas: Trump’s return and its global repercussions".
With Donald Trump’s return to the White House after winning the 2024 presidential election, there is an implicit Yeatsian ‘the Second Coming’ allegory at play. The poem’s hint at the apocalypse in post-war European doom and gloom resonates strongly with the Republican narratives that catapulted Trump to a historic mandate in both the electoral college and popular vote. The narrative that this was America’s last chance to save the country and its military from ‘woke’ ideologies and the real inflation crisis may have had greater purchase with the American voter base than the Democratic party’s appeal to Trump representing a threat to American democracy.
Trump’s victory potentially marks a shift on multiple fronts. First, the emphasis on recentring the government’s focus back on domestic priorities could significantly change the American state’s outlook. The United States’ international agenda will be governed by the domestic, political, bureaucratic and financial overhaul within US institutions. The Trump 2.0 administration will be intent on changing the focus of the US both internally and externally.
Internal
Donald Trump has swiftly assembled a new Cabinet for his second term, learning from the challenges of his first. This time, his choices reflect a cautious yet assertive approach, signalling a departure from perceived institutional pressures that shaped his earlier administration. Pending Senate confirmations, the appointments are provocative at best and controversial at worst, with critics dubbing them a "show of force" to highlight his unflinching policy agenda. Key nominations include Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, Michael Waltz as National Security Advisor, Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense, Matt Gaetz as Attorney General, Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence, and Kristi Noem as Secretary of Homeland Security. These selections suggest a hard-line stance on policy and a pivot away from the compromises Trump felt compelled to make in his first term. They signal a comprehensive transformation within the departments of state, defence, homeland security and health services. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), headed by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy remains a wild card, with little clarity on its functioning.
The administration's domestic focus is expected to reduce external engagements that drain US resources while prioritising the domestic economy and encouraging job growth. Trump’s emphasis on energy independence includes plans to expand oil drilling and shale gas fracking, positioning the US as a leading energy exporter. This strategy is likely to disrupt global supply chains, especially in the Indo-Pacific and Europe, where nations may need to pivot towards US energy imports. Simultaneously, sanctions on countries like Iran and (potentially) Russia will be leveraged to maintain US dominance in global energy markets. Trump’s economic vision also includes the reintroduction of tariffs on international imports, likely affecting supply chains and exacerbating tensions in trade relationships with key partners such as China and the European Union (EU). While these policy measures may resonate with his base, their broader economic repercussions will attract close scrutiny.
Illegal immigration remains a central issue in Trump’s domestic agenda. Measures under consideration include reinstating travel bans on certain Muslim-majority countries, mass deportations, increased funding for border security, and a legislative push to overhaul the asylum system. Trump has signalled his intent to challenge the principle of birthright citizenship, a move that could have far-reaching implications for immigrant communities, including Indian-origin migrants who have benefited from this policy.
External
Trump’s foreign policy will focus on resolving the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, aligning with his campaign promise to end "endless wars". In Europe, his administration is likely to pressure Vladimir Putin and NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) allies to negotiate a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war. Stability in the region could pave the way for expanded US energy exports to Europe, reducing the reliance on Russian supplies.
In the Middle East, Trump will likely double down on Israel-Arab normalisation, leveraging initiatives such as the Abraham Accords and potentially the I2U2—a grouping of India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the US—along with the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). However, his administration’s hard-line stance on Iran could exacerbate tensions in the region, especially if it includes heightened sanctions or military posturing.
China will remain a focal point of Trump’s foreign policy. With hawkish advisors like Rubio and Waltz, the administration is expected to adopt a tougher stance, including higher tariffs and intensified competition in critical and emerging technologies. Trump's strategy in the Indo-Pacific will likely emphasise countering China's influence through strengthened alliances such as the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, which includes Australia, India, Japan, and the US), and trilateral partnerships with Japan and Australia. This approach may have ripple effects, reshaping supply chains and forcing US partners to recalibrate their economic and strategic policies.
India
India is poised to remain a key partner under Trump’s second administration. The structural depth of their bilateral relationship—spanning defence, security, trade, and technology—will continue to drive cooperation. However, longstanding issues like technology transfer restrictions under the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) could resurface, requiring deft negotiation. The Trump administration may push India to take on a more proactive role in regional security, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. In return, India could gain greater access to US defense technology and intelligence-sharing platforms, enhancing their bilateral synergy. India has long sought greater access to cutting-edge US technology, especially in critical emerging sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, quantum computing and advanced defence systems. However, the Trump administration’s America First policy and its Make America Great Again ethos might create friction with New Delhi’s Make in India initiative.
Resolving these tensions will require innovative solutions that balance US concerns about intellectual property and technology security with India’s ambitions for self-reliance in defence and technology. Key areas of focus might include co-development and co-production agreements, technology-sharing arrangements under ITAR (International Traffic in Arms Regulations) exemptions, and a full-throttle operationalisation of the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET).
Trade relations between the two nations are likely to face renewed scrutiny. Trump is expected to adopt a protectionist stance, which could see increased tariffs on specific Indian exports, particularly in the pharmaceutical, textile, and information technology sectors. Moreover, the Trump administration may pressure India on issues such as the elimination of agricultural subsidies, further opening up its markets to US goods, and advancing negotiations on a long-pending free trade agreement (FTA). India, for its part, is likely to resist such demands, citing domestic economic priorities and the need to protect vulnerable sectors like agriculture.
The strategic partnership, underpinned by foundational agreements like BECA (Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement), LEMOA (Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement), COMCASA (Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement), and GSOMIA (General Security of Military Information Agreement), is expected to have stability and continuity in defence cooperation. India’s designation as a Major Defense Partner and the robust 2+2 Dialogue format with the US will continue to anchor bilateral defence and security relationships. Key deliverables, such as the timely acquisition of MQ-9B drones and advanced anti-submarine warfare technologies like sonobuoys, will play a crucial role in enhancing India’s military capabilities. These systems will not only bolster India’s maritime domain awareness, but also strengthen its role as a net security provider in the Indo-Pacific.
The Trump administration is expected to double down on its China strategy, further underscoring India’s indispensability as a partner in the Indo-Pacific. Initiatives such as the Quad and broader regional mechanisms such as the trilateral partnership with Japan and Australia are likely to intensify. India, in turn, could leverage US support to enhance its own regional strategy, particularly, to counter Chinese assertiveness along its borders and in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). The two nations may also collaborate to reshape global supply chains and reduce the dependence on China, by investing in resilient infrastructure and critical technologies.
The Trump administration’s initial focus will be on delivering tangible results within the first two years, ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. While this urgency may drive bold decisions, it also carries the risk of overreaching policies. Key metrics for success will include the administration’s ability to stabilise inflation, manage immigration effectively and navigate complex foreign policy challenges. Trump’s second term promises to recalibrate US policies, both domestically and globally. While his administration’s assertive approach may yield short-term political gains, its long-term impact on America's alliances and global standing remains to be seen.
Vivek Mishra is a Visiting Fellow at ORF America.