By: Harsh Pant and Vivek Mishra
This article originally appeared in The Economic Times on November 6, 2024.
In light of Donald Trump's re-election as the 47th President of the United States, the international community is gearing up to adapt to potential shifts resulting from Washington's recalibrations. The second Trump presidency will likely echo themes from his previous term but with significant changes. While his first administration provides a reference point for assessing likely policies and their effects on the US, its allies, and global partners, Trump's return to the White House could introduce new dynamics due to other internal and external factors which have cropped up since he left office.
Internally, Trump has already indicated his administration will differ markedly from his prior one. Many key figures from his first term, such as John Kelly and John Bolton, have either distanced themselves from him or openly opposed his leadership, suggesting a fresh team with potentially distinct policy goals. This shift could result in notable changes across domestic and foreign policy fronts. The entry of people like Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy and Robert F. Kennedy Junior could mean very different policy priorities for the US in fields such as space, technology, innovation, medical and health.
Externally, the global landscape has changed drastically since Trump left office in 2021. The world now faces two major conflicts: the war in Ukraine and the escalating crisis in West. Meanwhile, China's economy, though experiencing slowdowns, has expanded in size and influence, and the US national debt has surged to unprecedented levels of $35 trillion. Significantly, the second Trump administration may operate with a rare bipartisan consensus against engaging in new military conflicts. Unlike the Biden administration, which was often divided on complex issues like Ukraine and Israel, Trump is expected to adopt a more unilateral approach, guided by his established views rather than shifting international pressures. His approach will be one guided by bare-bone interests rather than any self proclaimed value. As such, bringing the ongoing wars to a close would be more important than whether democracy is being safeguarded abroad. However, it was interesting to see Trump talk about saving American democracy in his victory speech, even as the ballots were being counted. His promise certainly compliments the recent survey that 76% of Americans consider the democracy under threat.
On Ukraine, Trump is expected to reassess US financial support, given that his campaign centred on criticisms of unending aid to Kyiv. He has argued that the war is draining American resources for limited strategic gain, suggesting that his administration might reduce or even cease aid to Ukraine, regardless of potential consequences for democracy in the region or for the European security architecture. With respect to Israel, Trump is likely to approach Middle Eastern policy pragmatically. Rather than merely reacting to regional conflicts, he may aim to solidify alliances that enhance security while maintaining political stability in Washington. Building on his last administration's legacy, Trump could revisit initiatives to foster regional cooperation, seeking to bring parties together for negotiations. This strategy would likely include isolating Iran diplomatically while strengthening ties among Abraham Accords signatories such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. Such moves could also revitalise stalled initiatives like the I2U2 and the IMEEC, boosting regional connectivity across the Indo-Pacific and the Middle East.
Trump's previous administration notably prioritised South Asia, a trend that may continue given the region's relative stability. For India, this could provide a favourable environment to strengthen regional relations on its own terms without significant external pressures from Washington. Trump's pragmatic approach may align well with India's regional ambitions, especially as New Delhi navigates its complex relationships with neighbouring countries.
As major powers recalibrate, the ripple effects will be felt worldwide. How Trump addresses global trade, tariffs, technology exports, and regional strategies-such as the Indo-Pacific strategy-will set the stage for American foreign policy in the coming years. His stance on transatlantic relations and the balance of power with China, in particular, will be closely watched, as these decisions will define the framework of "Trump 2.0" and its global impact.
However, Trump's promise to 'fix it' will have more domestic than international dimension to it.
Vivek Mishra is a Visiting Fellow at ORF America.