December 5, 2025 — In this week's episode of Around the World, hosts Dhruva Jaishankar and Rachel Rizzo discuss the latest status of the Ukraine negotiations, which have been revised from a 28-point plan to a 19-point plan. They also touch on Putin’s visit to India and its impact on the future of India-Russia relations, as well as Trump’s influence in the recent Honduras elections.
Available on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
Sneak peak
Dhruva Jaishankar: It's interesting in the readouts, including debates in the Duma They're really focused, continuing to focus on the defense aspects of the relationship with India. But overall, I think we have some broader structural constraints to this relationship. I think the biggest one is Russia, constraints in the Russian economy. And so these attempts to try to balance the economic relationship, which India is very keen on, are going to confront some obstacles.
Rachel Rizzo: The reason that the Europeans feel like they really haven't been at the table is because they really haven't been at the table. They've actually done a pretty good job of continuing this military support for Ukraine. But in terms of shaping the outcome here, this is very much up to both the United States and, of course, at the end of the day, Russia and Ukraine.
Dhruva Jaishankar: Elections in Honduras, and the reason that's interesting is that the United States under Trump has very clearly backed one candidate. And it's part of just a trend we're seeing across Latin America of polarization in politics and how that that the domestic politics of these countries is being so closely tied to the United States.
Welcome to Around the World
Dhruva Jaishankar: Hi, I'm Dhruva Jaishankar.
Rachel Rizzo: And I'm Rachel Rizzo. Welcome to the Around the World podcast. Your essential guide to understanding the forces shaping our world today. Every week, we cut through the noise to bring you clear, insightful analysis of the most important developments in geopolitics.
Dhruva Jaishankar: Whether it's security challenges across Europe, power dynamics in Asia, domestic updates from the United States, or regional updates in Latin America or the Middle East, we make sure you're up to speed on what's happening and more importantly, why it matters.
Rachel Rizzo: Thanks for tuning in. And be sure to like and subscribe to the Around the World podcast on both Youtube and Spotify. We are now also on Apple Podcasts. And now onto the show.
Ukraine negotiations
Rachel Rizzo: Happy Friday, Dhruva.
Dhruva Jaishankar: Hi Rachel, welcome I suppose to India. You're now going to be there for the next year.
Rachel Rizzo: Yeah, that is where I am. That's where I'm based now. So, high from New Delhi, where it's super late. So, you know, us trying to figure out a time that works for both of us to record is going to be super fun.
Dhruva Jaishankar: Yes, and I'm in Washington as usual. So it'd be interesting, actually, think over the next few minutes hearing actually some of your insights on what's happening in Washington. And I think I'll be giving a little bit on what's happening in Delhi. We'll be discussing the Ukraine negotiations that have over the last two weeks, since we didn't record last week, the last two weeks have been quite eventful. And also today we have Vladimir Putin, Russia's president in India. So we'll be discussing his visit as well. So start off with what's going on in the Ukraine negotiations now?
Rachel Rizzo: So it seems like this is a perennial topic, probably to our listeners. And that's because it is. And that's because every few weeks we think that these Ukraine negotiations are going to go somewhere and then they don't. And we're having the same issue this week as well. We're facing the same problems that Ukraine and Russia have faced for the last four years, which is that there is simply too much daylight between each side's minimal acceptable criteria to agree to any sort of ceasefire. And that's really the problem we're running into and that's why we're still at an impasse. And because of this, basically all year Trump has set these deadlines for both sides, Russia and Ukraine, and those deadlines have come and gone again because there's just too much daylight between Ukraine and Russia still. So over the last couple of weeks there's been a major diplomatic sprint, but the sticking points of this 28-point plan that we talked about a few weeks ago, which has been revised to a 19-point plan after talks between the U.S. and Ukraine appear to still be an issue. So that's kind of where we're at and that's kind of where we're going from here.
Dhruva Jaishankar: So one thing just before that 28 point plan, there was already some controversy around it, which is this was initially presented by Steve Witkoff in the United States or to Trump as this was something that had been discussed between the United States and Russia.
Rachel Rizzo: Yeah. Mm-hmm.
Dhruva Jaishankar: And others say that this was really just the Russian, initial Russian plan that was presented without any kind of revision. And that seemed to have been suggested by some members of the US Congress. So it's led to some.. it appears different viewpoints within the Trump administration, even on where the starting negotiation gambit is, right? So what's your sense of that?
Rachel Rizzo: Yeah, so this initial 28 point plan that came out was by many people seen as just Russian talking points and Russian desires to create an outcome that is basically ensuring that they gain all of the territory that they've been attempting to gain for the last four years, make sure that Ukraine is never going to join NATO, make sure it has a smaller military. But what happened this week was that Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with Putin and his team, I think for over five hours in Moscow on Tuesday, where they really tried to work through some of the sticking points with the Russians, of which there continue to be many. And they relayed back to Trump over the phone that it appears that Moscow really wants to find a deal. I'm skeptical about that. I think that Trump or sorry, not Trump, Putin thinks that time is still on his side and if he just pushes, he'll eventually get the gains that he's been looking for. So people familiar with these discussions basically say there are really four separate elements being negotiated in parallel. One concerns issues related to Ukraine's sovereignty, obviously, like limits on the future size of its peacetime army and on the range of its missiles. The other covers territory, economic cooperation, and broader European security issues. So Russia, Putin has suggested, not only wants Ukraine to cede land that Kiev still controls, but it also wants the United States to legally recognize Russia's conquests. And I have a hard time thinking that the United States is ever gonna do that. So we'll have to see how this plays out in the coming days and weeks.
Dhruva Jaishankar: So I just want to get your thoughts on slightly more, you know, some of the personalities involved here because again, one of the discrepancies appears to be that on the Russian side, it's been a pretty steady set of hands, right? The negotiations are led by Kirill Dmitriev, is actually really is that we grew up in the United States, studied at Harvard, Stanford, very well connected in the US. And then Yuri Ushakov, the former Russian ambassador to Washington. And on the US side, though, they seem to be just like a constellation of people. There's Witkoff and Kushner, who were in Moscow. You have Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Rachel Rizzo: Dan Driscoll. This is a new one. Yeah.
Dhruva Jaishankar: Dan Driscoll, the US Army secretary, involved in some of the talks in Kiev, but then was also withdrawn for some of the talks. And there have been parallel negotiations in Florida, as well as in Kiev and in Moscow, of course. So it seems like there's again, this discrepancy between, again, a pretty uniform set of actors on the Russian side and a mixed bag on the US side.
Rachel Rizzo: You're totally right. And I think on the Russian side, I mean, these are very seasoned Russian actors, right? These guys have been at this for not just years, for decades. These are former KGB guys, and they're really the best of the best. And I think this is what's difficult about the US position is that, know, no shame on Jared Kushner or Steve Witkoff, but this is a very different kind of conflict. This is not just sitting at a table and trying to find a deal that both sides think is going to work for them. This gets to the heart of, and I've said this before on our other episodes, Russian imperialism. It gets to the heart of Putin's legacy as a leader of Russia. And it's not going to be easy to come to the table and figure out what each side wants and get a ceasefire out of it. And that has been proven over and over again since Trump came into office but also since he was on the campaign trail and said that he was going to solve this war within 24 hours. It's just not going to happen that way. And unfortunately, if you were asking me, I think we've still got a lot of time ahead of us before we see any real outcomes here.
Dhruva Jaishankar: How are the Europeans reacting to it? Not coincidentally, French President Emmanuel Macron was in Beijing. There was, weirdly without any, normally he's traveled with a senior European official or self-underlying or something, this time without one. There was a lot of concern in Europe about during the US-China talks between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump that Ukraine was mentioned again without them in the room, without the Europeans in the room. So how is Europe reacting to these talks between direct talks with the United States and Russia.
Rachel Rizzo: Well, I think it's a mixed bag. I think at the end of the day, the reason that the Europeans feel like they really haven't been at the table is because they really haven't been at the table. And that's because Trump doesn't think that they really bring much to the table. I hate to say it. They've been trying. They've been trying to talk about this coalition of the willing. They've actually done a pretty good job of continuing this military support for Ukraine. But in terms of shaping the outcome here, this is very much up to both the United States and, of course, at the end of the day, Russia and Ukraine. There was some real frustration this week.
Dhruva Jaishankar: Mm-hmm.
Rachel Rizzo: I think that at this really key moment, Secretary of State Marco Rubio was not at the NATO foreign ministerial in Brussels, and instead he sent his deputy. This happens sometimes with European countries, but usually NATO will actually work around the secretary's schedule and accommodate him or her if there are conflicts. So I think there's some frustration there, but during this meeting, you know, the Europeans did the best they can to reaffirm their commitment to supporting Ukraine. Mark Rutte, NATO secretary general, said NATO isn't going anywhere. And he also said Donald Trump is the only person that can break the current deadlock between Russia and Ukraine.
Dhruva Jaishankar: Daddy, he likes to call him daddy.
Rachel Rizzo: He did call him daddy at the NATO summit earlier this year. I bet he would love to forget about that, but the internet lives forever, and so will that phrase, unfortunately. But I think, you know, something broader here is really this question of, you know, is Europe able to act as one? You have very strong actors like France and Germany and even to a certain extent, Italy, Poland, the Baltics. And then you have countries like Hungary, for example, that is really not in line with some of the other Europeans when it comes to, you know, continuing to support Ukraine, pushing back against Russia in terms of sanctions. you have these coalitions of the willing starting to emerge and it's going to be interesting to watch where that goes from here. So certainly something to watch closely.
Putin Meets With Modi
Rachel Rizzo: And then continuing on the European, Eurasian continent, Putin is a few blocks away from where I am in New Delhi. I think he's having dinner with Modi at the moment.
Dhruva Jaishankar: Yeah
Rachel Rizzo: There's a major Modi-Putin summit here in Delhi today and tomorrow is the main meeting. Can you tell us a little bit about what you're watching there and what we should be watching there?
Dhruva Jaishankar: Yeah, so just again for some context. So Putin Vladimir Putin doesn't like to travel abroad much. He doesn't do too many foreign visits. In fact, in the last six years, he's done only 14 visits outside the former Soviet, not counting former Soviet countries. Four have been to China. Two have been to meet US presidents, once with Joe Biden in Switzerland and then the famous Alaska summit with Donald Trump. He's visited Iran, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Mongolia, North Korea, Vietnam. But this is his second visit actually to India in that time frame. It tells you a little bit about in the relative hierarchy of things how he views the relationship with India. It isn't a long visit, he's there for 30 hours, a little over one day. And I think for, I mean it's interesting looking at from both vantage points because I think they both need something, right?
Rachel Rizzo: Okay.
Dhruva Jaishankar: So for India's standpoint, this visit is in some ways routine. They used to have annualized visits between the Indian and Russian leaders that go back quite a while. But it's also partly at this time a signal to Washington that India has options. And it's coming at a time when there's still pretty hefty tariffs by the United States on India, 50 % in some cases, and you still have some other difficulties in the relationship. So it is in some ways a signal to Washington at this time. At the same time, for New Delhi, it has to be balanced by outreach to Europe. And there is a free trade agreement that is being negotiated between India and the European Union.
Rachel Rizzo: Yep.
Dhruva Jaishankar: There's growing defense cooperation. I think you've just been meeting with some European diplomats in India, so you'd be interested to hear what you've heard from them. But the main practical objective from India's standpoint is to diversify beyond defense. know, in some ways the India-Russia relationship has been defined traditionally by defense and security..
Rachel Rizzo: Mm-hmm.
Dhruva Jaishankar: And then more belatedly by more recently by commodities, particularly oil but also coal fertilizers. And it's really swelled the trade deficit. We're talking about a $60 billion trade deficit now that India has with Russia only in the last couple of years since the outbreak of the war. So, you know, for India the challenge has been how do you keep up this engagement with Russia while also deeping relations with Europe and the European Union. And again, from India's the main objective is to widen that aperture, so have more balanced trade with Russia. Putin and Modi are attending India-Russia Business Forum.
Rachel Rizzo: Okay.
Dhruva Jaishankar: India wants more market access for pharmaceuticals, agricultural exports, maritime products, all of which are facing tariffs from the United States. And there's also talk about a mobility agreement, which may be finalized, which will allow Indians, instead of facilitate Indians to work in Russia. There has been this concern for a while about Indian contractors and even a couple of cases of students being forcibly recruited to fight in the front lines in Ukraine, and that has deterred Indians from actually going to Russia. So again, these are the issues that India would like to get out of this visit.
Rachel Rizzo: So I mean, just sort of taking a 30,000 foot view for a second here, you were talking about the balancing act that Modi is playing between Russia and Europe. Von der Leyen is coming again for Republic Day in January, which is going to be a huge visit. So there's that. But when it comes to the relationship with Russia, there's obviously a China aspect to this as well, right? I mean, they want to, know, obviously the relationship with Russia has been close for a long time, but isn't part of it at this point today ensuring that that relationship remains close so that Russia doesn't just become a vassal state of China?
Dhruva Jaishankar: Yeah, that's a big part of it. So, you the original impetus for the India-Russia relationship in the 1960s was, in fact, the Sino-Soviet split that took place in the 60s and early 70s and China's normalization of ties with the United States. And that led to, in some ways, closer cooperation between India and the Soviet Union. In 1971, they signed a treaty of friendship, a peace and friendship. in some ways, the relationship intensified in the 1990s because it was actually quite transactional. Russia needed... it was the time that the Russian economy wasn't doing so well. India needed relatively...inexpensive but high quality arms. And so that was where the relationship deepened. But it has been informed a lot by China. And now we're in a very different place, particularly since 2014, since the Russian annexation of Crimea. And then particularly after the more broad based invasion of Ukraine, where Russia has become much more dependent on China, geopolitically, economically. If you look at the trade between the two energy sales from Russia to China, the supply chain integration,
Rachel Rizzo: Mm-hmm.
Dhruva Jaishankar: Including in some very sensitive areas like missile components, naval components, there's now a great deal of cooperation.
Rachel Rizzo: Mm-hmm
Dhruva Jaishankar: There have been murmurs of unease in Moscow about the level of dependence that Russia has had to, you know, the level of dependence Russia now has on China.
Rachel Rizzo: Interesting.
Dhruva Jaishankar: And for example, that's translated into Russia trying to welcome more Indian investment in the Russian Far East,
Rachel Rizzo: Okay.
Dhruva Jaishankar: Where there are concerns about, you know, it's a very sparsely populated area, very close to China. But but so far, I mean again, we're on the path as long as the conflict continues where we are going to see a Russia-China relationship deepen and India's sort of trying to mitigate that by continuing to engage with Moscow.
Rachel Rizzo: Okay, so Modi is continuing to engage with Moscow, so is ⁓ India writ large? Is Putin playing ball?
Dhruva Jaishankar: To some degree, yes. It's interesting in the readouts, including debates in the Duma legislature in Moscow and in the Russian press, they're really focused, continuing to focus on the defense aspects of the relationship with India. And so we've had the announcement, expect today and tomorrow, the announcement formally of a reciprocal logistics agreement. This is a kind of allowing the militaries to service each other. India has a similar relationship, agreement with the United States, United Kingdom, France, Australia, Japan, South Korea, many others, it's doing a similar agreement with Russia now. We may see some defense deals, the reports of potentially leasing a nuclear submarine, more S-400 missiles, but that's pretty, that's kind of on pace with what India has been acquiring from Russia. A harder sell will be some, like new fighter jets and things like that, because that will undermine India's own attempts at trying to indigenize its own defense industry.
Rachel Rizzo: Okay.
Dhruva Jaishankar: But overall, I think we have some broader structural constraints to this relationship and some of which are Russia's continued relationship and deepening partnership with China, India's engagements with Europe and the United States. And then I think the biggest one is Russia, constraints in the Russian economy. And so these attempts to try to balance the economic relationship, which India is very keen on, are going to confront some obstacles.
Rachel Rizzo: Absolutely. I mean, mentioning the Russian economy, it's going to be really interesting kind of bringing it back to the Ukraine debate again. If it gets to a point where Trump decides to really tighten the levers of U.S. economic power in terms of sanctions, really trying to turn up the heat on Russian banks, it's going to be interesting to see what that does to the Russian economy, because it's really been able to weather the war actually pretty well over the last four years or so.
Dhruva Jaishankar: Mm-hmm.
Rachel Rizzo: So yeah, stuff that we're all gonna be watching.
Dhruva Jaishankar: There was just a report yesterday that while there has been a drop in Lukoil and Rosneft's exports, there has been a pickup by other entities, other Russian entities. there are always ways of trying to find, like circumvent some of the sanctions that have been placed.
Rachel Rizzo: And those two companies are significant because those are the two companies that Trump decided to sanction just a couple of weeks ago.
Dhruva Jaishankar: And yeah, the two largest energy exporters in Russia as well, they're behemoths, right? And the sanctions kicked in. And even though we've seen a drop from them, we haven't really seen, we've seen an increase from other Russian exporters, which again suggests that various actors are trying to find workarounds to the sanctions.
Rachel Rizzo: All right. So then kind of moving away from the Eurasian European continent, you've been watching the Honduras elections.
Trump's Backing in Honduras Elections
Dhruva Jaishankar: Well, just a few, mean, as a small thing, been a increased China-Japan spat after the Japanese prime minister made some comments, basically saying publicly what was known privately, which was a Taiwan scenario conflict would involve Japan. That was well known, but China has reacted in a very strong manner diplomatically and economically against that. And then Trump is going to host, another thing to watch, Trump is going to host leaders from Africa at the US Institute of Peace building, which now has Donald Trump's name on it.
Rachel Rizzo: Okay which is now renamed. Yep, it's new.
Dhruva Jaishankar: His name is now prominently on display there. One last thing, there are elections in Honduras, and the reason that's interesting is that the United States under Trump has very clearly backed one candidate. And this was a five-way race. There were really three main candidates there. And two of them are sort of essentially a right-wing and left-wing leader are on a knife edge. It's a very close election. It's actually the results have been delayed because of some technical glitches. But Trump has weighed in very strongly in favor of one. And it's part of just a trend we're seeing across Latin America of polarization in politics and how that the domestic politics of these countries is being so closely tied to the United States. One of the very odd bits of all of this is that in the midst of all of this, Trump pardoned a former president of Honduras, Juan Orlando Hernandez, who was in jail in the United States for a 45-year jail sentence. He was convicted on drug-related charges, had been arrested and extradited by Honduras to the United States. And Trump has now pardoned him and released him. So very much weighing into the domestic politics of a country like that.
Rachel Rizzo: Yeah, I'm just concerned that I missed this entire story because it's actually super fascinating. I didn't even know that that happened. So I'm glad you're keeping track of it. It's kind of crazy, right? Yeah.
Dhruva Jaishankar: Yeah, it's still ongoing, right? So they haven't actually announced the official results yet. But it's part of it, just again, a broader pattern, again, what we're seeing in Venezuela as well. We talked about this a few episodes ago, but there continues to be a buildup, a U.S. military buildup in Venezuela. Secretary of Defense, or Secretary of War, I should say, Pete Hegseth has been now embroiled in a scandal of sorts, which is that he ordered the killings of survivors to one of the attacks, which some would argue is a violation of human rights and things like that. So that has become a sort mini scandal, at least in Washington. see where that goes.
Rachel Rizzo: Yeah, I think we'll be discussing that even more in the next couple of weeks because I think this debate isn't going anywhere. Hopefully we're not at war with Venezuela when we record next week. But obviously we'll be keeping an eye on all of these and make sure we're keeping you, our listeners, to date on all the latest happenings. Be sure to tune in every Friday for the latest episodes.
Dhruva Jaishankar: Yeah, thank you for joining us and talk to you next week.