Foreign Policy & Security

Season 2 Episode 9 : Oil Market Volatility, U.S. War in Iran, Carney in the Indo-Pacific

March 13, 2026 — In this week’s episode of Around the World, hosts Dhruva Jaishankar and Rachel Rizzo explore the recent disruptions in global energy markets following the Strait of Hormuz closure, examining its impact on oil prices and the steps countries have taken to mitigate the effects. They also continue the conversation on the Middle East conflict, delving into the debate over potential U.S. troop deployments to Iran despite opposition from both Democrats and Republicans. They wrap up the episode with a quick look at Canadian PM Mark Carney’s trips to India, Australia, and Japan, and what they signal about Canada’s efforts to reduce dependence on the United States.

Available on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Transcript Available SOon

Image: Andrew Ly / Shutterstock

Image: Tasnim News Agency / Hossein Zohrevand, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons. Cropped from original.

Image: 205269. PM meets the Prime Minister of Canada, Mr. Mark Carney at Hyderabad House, in New Delhi on March 02, 2026. Courtesy of the Government of India Press Information Bureau, via pib.gov.in.

Season 2 Episode 8 : Iran War in the Middle East

March 6, 2026 — In this week’s episode of Around the World, hosts Dhruva Jaishankar and Rachel Rizzo zero in on the escalating conflict in the Middle East, unpacking the U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Iran’s retaliation against military bases and critical infrastructures in the Gulf. They explore Israel’s push for regime change, the impact on U.S. domestic politics, and how Europe and the Gulf Arab states are being drawn into the widening war.

Available on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Transcript Available SOon

Image: Avash Media, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Season 2 Episode 7 : U.S. Tariffs after Supreme Court Ruling, Trump’s State of the Union

February 27, 2026 — In this week’s episode of Around the World, hosts Dhruva Jaishankar and Rachel Rizzo recap a landmark U.S. Supreme Court ruling that struck down President Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose global tariffs, exploring its implications for current trade deals and future negotiations. They then pivot to Trump’s State of the Union address, highlighting his claims of economic revival and conflict resolution abroad.

Available on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Transcript Available SOon

Image: Mathieu Landretti, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
Image: The White House, Public Domain, via WhiteHouse.gov

Season 2 Episode 6 : India AI Summit, Japan's Stunning Election

February 13, 2026 — In this week’s episode of Around the World, Amlan Mohanty, Technology and Society Fellow at Carnegie India, joins hosts Dhruva Jaishankar and Rachel Rizzo to discuss India’s upcoming AI Impact Summit, which will take place in New Delhi and feature global leaders and CEOs from companies like Nvidia, OpenAI, and Microsoft. They explore the Summit’s implications for global AI governance, India’s role as the first Global South host, and tensions around access, inclusion, and U.S.-China competition. Dhruva and Rachel then pivot to Japan, where they recap Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's major victory for the Liberal Democratic Party during the recent snap election.

Available on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Transcript Available SOon

Image: Ministry of Culture (GODL-India), GODL-India, via Wikimedia Commons
Image: 内閣広報室|Cabinet Public Affairs Office, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Season 2 Episode 5 : India-U.S. Trade Deal, U.S.-Iran Tensions

February 6, 2026 — In this week’s episode of Around the World, hosts Dhruva Jaishankar and Rachel Rizzo break down a major shift in U.S.-India relations after U.S. President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a trade deal earlier this week. They explore what’s driving the breakthrough, what remains unclear, and whether this deal will put the bilateral relationship back on steadier ground. The episode then turns to rising tensions with Iran, as the United States increases its military presence in the Gulf even as informal nuclear talks take shape, heightening questions about escalation, diplomacy, and what to watch for next.

Available on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Transcript Available SOon

Image: The White House, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
Image: Tasnim News Agency, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Season 2 Episode 4 : Trump’s Board of Peace, U.S. Defense Strategy, China Military Purges

January 30, 2026 — In this week’s episode of Around the World, hosts Dhruva Jaishankar and Rachel Rizzo examine Trump’s Board of Peace, a multilateral initiative originally aimed at overseeing the Gaza ceasefire — and the questions around its membership, funding, and Trump’s ongoing role. They also assess the Department of War’s newly released National Defense Strategy and its priorities for U.S. security, as well as China’s recent detainment of top PLA officers. 

Available on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Transcript Available SOon

Image: Board of Peace session with world leaders at the Official, on 22/1/2026 from 10:30 to 11:30 in the Congress Centre – Congress Hall (Zone C), Stakeholder Dialogue (special session/board of peace). CC BY-NC-SA 4.0. Courtesy of the World Economic Forum / Jason Alden, via Flickr.

Season 2 Episode 3 : Transatlantic Rift, EU-India Summit, UK-Mauritius Chagos Deal

January 23, 2026 — In this week’s episode of Around the World, hosts Dhruva Jaishankar and Rachel Rizzo are joined by Garima Mohan, Senior Fellow at the German Marshall Fund, to discuss the growing momentum in EU-India relations ahead of an upcoming summit and potential trade agreement. Dhruva and Rachel also dig into the latest developments between Trump and Greenland, as well as the sudden resurrection of the U.K.–Mauritius Chagos Islands deal.

Available on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Transcript Available SOon

Image: FellowNeko, via Shutterstock.

Image: 111176. PM meeting the President of the European Commission, Ms. Ursula Von Der Leyen, in New Delhi on April 25, 2022. Courtesy of the Government of India Press Information Bureau, via pib.gov.in.

Image: Copernicus Sentinel-2 data 2021, ESA / CNES, via Wikimedia Commons.

Season 2 Episode 2 : Iran Protests, Germany-India Ties, U.S. Fed Tensions

January 16, 2026 — In this week’s episode of Around the World, Dhruva Jaishankar and Rachel Rizzo dive into the resurgence of protests in Iran and what it means for the country’s economic and political future. They also unpack German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s visit to India and the growing tensions between the Trump administration and the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Available on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Transcript Available SOon

Image: Tasnim News Agency, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Image: 200886. PM and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, participates in the International Kite Festival at the Sabarmati Riverfront at Ahmedabad, in Gujarat on January 12, 2026. Courtesy of the Government of India Press Information Bureau, via pib.gov.in.

Image: DSC_0454. Chair Powell answers reporters’ questions at the FOMC press conference on December 10, 2025. Courtesy of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, via Flickr.

Season 2 Episode 1 : Venezuela Operations, Greenland Tensions, and Recognition of Somaliland

January 9, 2026 — To kick off Season 2 of Around the World, hosts Dhruva Jaishankar and Rachel Rizzo recap what went down in Venezuela and the U.S. military’s capture of Nicolás Maduro and his wife. They also discuss the revived tensions between the United States and Greenland, and touch on Israel’s recent recognition of Somaliland as an independent state. 

Available on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Transcript Available SOon

Image: SWinxy, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Image: www.horndiplomat, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Episode 8 : U.S. National Security Strategy, Thailand-Cambodia Dispute

December 12, 2025 — In this week's episode of Around the World, hosts Dhruva Jaishankar and Rachel Rizzo break down the newly released U.S. National Security Strategy, highlighting its differences from past strategies in terms of structure and priorities. They also touch on renewed tensions between Thailand and Cambodia, exploring the historical roots of the border dispute, domestic political drivers in both countries, and ASEAN’s role.

Available on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Transcript Available SOon

Episode 7 : Ukraine Negotiations, Putin in India, Honduras Elections

December 5, 2025 — In this week's episode of Around the World, hosts Dhruva Jaishankar and Rachel Rizzo discuss the latest status of the Ukraine negotiations, which have been revised from a 28-point plan to a 19-point plan. They also touch on Putin’s visit to India and its impact on the future of India-Russia relations, as well as Trump’s influence in the recent Honduras elections. 

Available on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Transcript Available SOon

Episode 6 : China's Political Purges, Saudi-U.S. Ties, Russia Oil Sanctions

November 21, 2025 — In this week's episode of Around the World, hosts Dhruva Jaishankar and Rachel Rizzo speak with Neil Thomas, Chinese Politics Fellow at Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis, who breaks down China's domestic politics and Xi Jinping's consolidation of power. Later on, Dhruva and Rachel discuss Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's recent visit to the White House and the global impact of Russian oil sanctions.

Available on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Sneak Peek

Neil Thomas: We already know what Xi wants to see in the plan. And the big takeaway there is that self-reliance in technology and building a complete industrial system remain the top priorities. So Xi is basically doubling down on his existing set of policy agendas around making China the world's innovation powerhouse.

Rachel Rizzo: Trump approved a major defense sales package to Saudi Arabia that includes future deliveries of F-35s. This is subject to Congress, obviously. 300 tanks. This is a really significant upgrade to Saudi's military capabilities and builds upon this $142 billion arms package that was announced during Trump's visit to Riyadh in May of this year.

Dhruva Jaishankar: After November 21st, let's see, I say three things. One, what is the impact on global energy prices, if at all?

Rachel Rizzo: Okay.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Second, what, if any, effect is this going to have on Russia's approach to the war? And then three, what does it mean, I think, the second order effects for US relations with China, India, Turkey, Europe, and others who are still to varying degrees dependent on sourcing Russian energy, oil and gas, particularly from Russia? And so how will it affect their relations?

Welcome to Around the World

Dhruva Jaishankar: Hi, I'm Dhruva Jaishankar.

Rachel Rizzo: And I'm Rachel Rizzo. Welcome to the Around the World podcast. Your essential guide to understanding the forces shaping our world today. Every week, we cut through the noise to bring you clear, insightful analysis of the most important developments in geopolitics.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Whether it's security challenges across Europe, power dynamics in Asia, domestic updates from the United States, or regional updates in Latin America or the Middle East, we make sure you're up to speed on what's happening and more importantly, why it matters.

Rachel Rizzo: Thanks for tuning in. And be sure to like and subscribe to the Around the World podcast on both Youtube and Spotify. We are now also on Apple Podcasts. And now onto the show.

Chinese Domestic Politics with Neil Thomas

Episode 5 : U.S. Shutdown Ends, Pakistan Army Leadership, Al-Sharaa in Syria

November 14, 2025 — In this week’s episode of Around the World, hosts Dhruva Jaishankar and Rachel Rizzo recap the longest government shutdown in U.S. history and its implications for both domestic and international politics. They also cover Pakistan's passing of its 27th constitutional amendment — effectively boosting Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir’s power — as well as Syria’s future with its new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, and his most recent visit to Washington.

Available on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Sneak Peak

Rachel Rizzo: I think we're gonna be having this conversation again in January because really what this comes down to is this fight for extending healthcare subsidies, which sounds like a domestic issue, but as we've seen the last couple of weeks, it has reverberations far beyond that.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Pakistan is a nuclear power. I think this has quite sweeping potential ramifications because Pakistan, mostly because of Pakistan's geography, right? This could lead to greater conflict, not less with India over the next few years. For Middle East security more broadly, this could have ramifications. And also the Pakistan-China relationship.

Rachel Rizzo: It's a fascinating background and I think this is really where it gets interesting. So for years, he was only known as this fighter named Abu Mohammed al-Julani and the leader of Syria's al-Qaeda branch. He had a $10 million US bounty on his head.

Welcome to around the world

Dhruva Jaishankar: Hi, I'm Dhruva Jaishankar.

Rachel Rizzo: And I'm Rachel Rizzo. Welcome to the Around the World podcast, your essential guide to understanding the forces shaping our world today. Every week, we cut through the noise to bring you clear, insightful analysis on some of the most important developments in geopolitics.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Whether it's security challenges across Europe, shifting power dynamics in Asia, domestic updates from the United States, or regional developments in Latin America or the Middle East, we make sure you're up to speed on what's happening and more importantly, why it matters.

Rachel Rizzo: Thanks for tuning in and be sure to like and subscribe the Around the World podcast on Spotify and YouTube.

Rachel Rizzo: Happy Friday, everyone.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Happy Friday, Rachel. Where are you speaking from?

Rachel Rizzo: I'm in Washington and you are in New Delhi? Yeah, how is everything?

Dhruva Jaishankar: And I'm in New Delhi this week. Great, we'll talk about it just a bit, but later in the show, I guess we'll be talking about the end, hopefully, of the US government shutdown,

Rachel Rizzo: Yep. Mm-hmm.

Dhruva Jaishankar: : Which has been 40 plus days, one of the longest shutdowns in recent history. Pakistan's constitutional amendment, what's happening there, why it matters, it actually has pretty sweeping ramifications.

Rachel Rizzo: Mm-hmm.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Trump also hosts Syria's new leader and why that's important. that's later in the show. But briefly, I've been in India. It's been pretty dramatic here. There was a terrorist attack a few days ago. In fact, I was little horrified to find out that the car explosion was actually not too far from where I was earlier that afternoon. I was meeting somebody not too far away, but fortunately it was very far away when the explosion did occur.

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah.

Dhruva Jaishankar: So initially there was some confusion about whether it was actually intentional, whether it was a terrorist attack. It now appears as if it was, and it was a cell that had been mostly captured. It was a group of mostly doctors..

Rachel Rizzo: Oh wow.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Who had stockpiled some explosive material. They'd been mostly detained and captured, but one, it appears as if one of the perpetrators that slipped through and was able to detonate. had over eight to ten people killed. The explosion took place very close to one of the most popular tourist sites in New Delhi.

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah, by the Red Fort, right? Yeah.

Dhruva Jaishankar: By the Red For yeah. We've also, this week in Delhi, had a really horrible pollution. It's led to protests. There weren't none today. A few days ago there were some public protests. So we had really high AQI. It's led to some partial school closures. And in fact, some policies like certain cars are not being allowed on the road, older vehicles, diesel vehicles, non-essential construction, mining, and other activities have also been suspended.

Rachel Rizzo: Mm-hmm.

Dhruva Jaishankar: So that's also it's been like the worst year possibly since the pandemic.

Rachel Rizzo: Wow.

Dhruva Jaishankar: So return yeah, so return to so that that's facing firsthand a few of the stories just to watch and I'm curious what else you've been interested in China formally launched a new aircraft carrier this week a few other developments in China. We've been seen a bit of a China Japan spat over comments made by the new Prime Minister in Japan on Taiwan. We had the Consul General in Osaka Chinese Consul General in Osaka, Japan, making a statement where he seemed to imply that people who stuck their noses into things would be beheaded and that's caused a lot of controversy because people are implying that it was in poor taste.

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Another recent development has been a new study that shows that US investment in Africa now exceeds Chinese investment in Africa.

Rachel Rizzo: Oh, that's actually huge, because that has not been the case since, I think, like 2013 or something.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Yeah, this is from 2023 data.

Rachel Rizzo: Ok.

Dhruva Jaishankar: It may have changed since then, but even that fact is quite significant. At the same time, China is making a major investment in Guinea in a major iron mine, which could really have some strong geopolitical ramifications. This is a high quality iron ore mine. I think it's the most expensive mining project ever I think, we're talking 23 plus billion dollars.

Rachel Rizzo: Oh wow.

Dhruva Jaishankar: And China’s got a piece of that now and again, people are watching that to see if that shifts some of the balance in the iron ore markets away from Australia and Brazil and some of the other traditional heavyweights. Last thing I'd mention, Thailand has suspended its peace agreement with Cambodia. This was the thing that Trump sort of claimed to have brokered. And there was an incident where some Thai soldiers stepped on a landmine, led to some injuries, and it's led to a bit of a deterioration in relations again.

Rachel Rizzo: Okay, so we'll probably dive into that at some point, because I don't think that's something that we've talked about.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Yeah.

Rachel Rizzo: Probably be worth it to do an episode where we get someone who's an expert on like mining and critical minerals.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Yeah.

Rachel Rizzo: So that's something for us to watch closely as well.

U.S. Government Shutdown Over...For Now

Dhruva Jaishankar: So, turning to you, what's happened with the government shutdown?

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah, so this is the big news story in the US this week. It's been the biggest news story, I would say, for the last 41 days, which is how long the government shutdown lasted. It was officially the longest one in history. Just a couple of days ago, a bipartisan Senate deal was reached to fund the government through January 30th and to set a vote on an Affordable Care Act bill in December. There were eight Democrats who defected to come over to the other side to make sure that this went through. Obviously, it's caused a lot of complaints and frustration among the Democrats because it seemed as though when you looked at polling, Republicans were actually the ones that were being blamed for this shutdown. And so a lot of people feel like the Democrats sort of fell over and kind of gave in to Republican demands. We'll see how this plays out. The final version extends government funding through January 2026. So it's looking like there's a chance we could be doing this all over again in just a couple of months.

Dhruva Jaishankar: So just kicks the can down the road. Briefly, if I can ask you, what are the potential international implications? I mean why should people outside of the US care what has come back online that wasn't functioning over the past 41 days?

Rachel Rizzo: I mean, look, I think what ends up happening when you have a government shutdown is all non-essential employees go home because there is no money to fund their work. There's no money to fund their salaries. In fact, essential employees that go to work are ending up having to get back pay. And so what we started seeing in the US was major flight cancellations. The first day of flight cancellations was last week and it started at 4%. Then it went up to 7, 8, almost 10 % this week. And so what that does, I think internationally is it really shows that the United States is in a somewhat of a dysfunctioning state, certainly a highly polarized state, but things like international visits, many of those got cut. Same with international visits here to the United States,. Non-essential employees in places like the State Department, the Pentagon, Commerce, Energy, all of the major departments in the US weren't working. And so this really does have broader reverberations beyond just the United States and beyond just the dysfunction that it represents. So let's see how long we can keep this settled for. But certainly I think we're gonna be having this conversation again in January because really what this comes down to is this fight for extending healthcare subsidies, which sounds like a domestic issue, but as we've seen the last couple of weeks, it has reverberations far beyond that. And then one other thing I would say is that healthcare is the big issue right now, but I think if there was another president in place, say it was like a Nikki Haley or someone else who wasn't seen as such an authoritarian figure by the Democrats, I really wonder whether or not they would have decided to shut down the government. Ezra Klein actually at the New York Times did a really good podcast on this the other day, kind of asking this exact question. I think it'd be worth going back to listen to. So this has stuff to do with just Trump in general as well. So we'll watch this closely and tackle it again in January if we have to.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Right.

Pakistan's 27th Constitutional Amendment

Rachel Rizzo: And then on your end, shifting it far away from the United States going to the international community, you mentioned that in Pakistan, Munir has kind of consolidated power through this constitutional amendment. Tell us a little bit about what is going on there.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Yeah so just a little bit background on that. So, you know, if we'd been having this conversation on Pakistan nine months ago, this was a country that was looking very inward at that time, and it had sort of a triple crisis on its hands. There was real political polarization, largely because of the immense popularity on the streets of Imran Khan, the former prime minister who's been jailed. And really, you have a sort of a coalition of everybody else, actors, the army, various political parties and others who have very little in common otherwise, but were all interested in keeping Iran Khan out of power essentially. So there was that tension that was there domestically. They were facing difficulties on their Western border, particularly in Balochistan, province of Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with Pashtuns on the West. So there was some internal security challenges they were facing, and the economy was looking in pretty bad shape. Now, what happened was in May, as you may recall, there was this three, four day conflict between India and Pakistan. And as one of the consequences of that was that Aasim Munir, the chief of army staff, was really able to consolidate power. It was sort of rallying around the flag in Pakistan. You know, it sort of bolstered the military's popularity. And he promoted himself to field marshal and really kind of consolidated himself politically.

Rachel Rizzo: Mm-hmm.

Dhruva Jaishankar: And so what we're seeing in some ways is a consequence of that. There's a 27th constitutional amendment that was passed by both the Senate and the lower house of parliament. This gives him effective command over all the other services. He was only chief of army staff. It's basically done away with the chairman joined chiefs staff, which is more of a ceremonial position in Pakistan, but he's become chief of defense staff more broadly. It consolidates his term. He has legal immunity for life, which is quite significant.

Rachel Rizzo: Hmm, yeah.

Dhruva Jaishankar: And he also has command over the strategic nuclear forces. So this gives him pretty sweeping powers. He's probably now the most powerful general in Pakistan since Musharraf, who became president, what, some 20 years ago. So this is really quite consequential for that reason. It's coincided, I think, two other things just to keep in mind. One is, Munir has able to consolidate relations with certain key external actors over the past few months. China, notably.

Rachel Rizzo: Mm-hmm.

Pakistan is the largest recipient of Chinese arms. Turkey and Azerbaijan, these three countries, Pakistan, Turkey and Azerbaijan call themselves the three brothers.

Rachel Rizzo: Oh didn't know that. Okay.

Dhruva Jaishankar: They have a very close relationship. Saudi Arabia, so they announced a mutual defense treaty, although the exact terms of that treaty are a bit vague. There's lot of speculation, is it sort of a de facto extension of Pakistan's nuclear deterrent? But again, that's subject to some interpretation. And also with the United States. So in some ways, Munir has been able to consolidate relations with some of these key actors. At the same time, he does continue to face domestic challenges. The economy isn't great. Inflation has come down, but the economy isn't in great shape. They may have to go back to the IMF for bailouts in the future. There's been another conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan, the Taliban and Afghanistan now on the West. So both India and Afghanistan, they're facing very direct security challenges. And India has also put in abeyance the Indus Waters Treaty, which guaranteed the flow of some waters from India to Pakistan, which may have some impact for farmers as well.

Rachel Rizzo: Okay.

Dhruva Jaishankar: You know, it's a kind of precarious situation we're in right now, where you have a very powerful leader who is quite ideologically motivated. He gives a very controversial speech in April or so of this year before the conflict with India, or was a little earlier in the year, which was quite, in India was seen as quite alarming and quite divisive. So he's quite ideologically motivated. He's got more political power than again, almost any military leader in Pakistan in two decades. And again, is not risk averse.

Rachel Rizzo: Okay.

Dhruva Jaishankar: And so the combination of feeling emboldened from these diplomatic relationships that he is managed to forge, also kind of cornered by India and Afghanistan could have some consequences.

Rachel Rizzo: So I'll ask you the same question that you asked me. What do these domestic developments mean for the international community and mean for Pakistan's role both in the region and as a global player? Or is it more consolidated within the country and we'll have to see what happens there first?

Dhruva Jaishankar: No so I think this has quite sweeping potential ramifications because Pakistan, mostly because of Pakistan's geography, right?

Rachel Rizzo: Mm-hmm.

Dhruva Jaishankar: So again, this could be lead to greater conflict, not less with India over the next few years. You know, the situation I outlined doesn't inspire lot of confidence for stability in the region.

Rachel Rizzo: No.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Pakistan is a nuclear power. It has a role, it is trying to play a role in the Middle East of various kinds, whether it's providing access to airspace for Iran related contingencies, whether it's security in Saudi Arabia, whether it's the proposed peacekeepers to Gaza as part of the settlement plan. So, Pakistan is trying to fashion itself as a sub-regional player for better, worse, you know, it could have a blowback effect. For example, there were Pakistani soldiers a few years ago captured in Yemen who were fighting on behalf of the Saudis and that had, again, some. So for Middle East security more broadly, this could have ramifications. And also the Pakistan-China relationship. We're seeing Pakistan becoming in some ways a test bed for Chinese weapon systems. And more than that, Chinese doctrine and practices, which they're emulating more what China is doing. Recently in August of this year, Pakistan unveiled a new rocket forces, US-50 rocket forces, which is modeled in part on China's. So I think again, this isn't just a domestic issue. It has implications for India, the United States, for nuclear stability for the Middle East and for China.

Rachel Rizzo: Okay, lots of ramifications there.

A New Leader for Syria

Dhruva Jaishankar: Mm-hmm. Yeah. Lastly, turn to you. We had a really interesting, unusual visit by Syria's new leader to Washington. Tell us about it.

Rachel Rizzo: I mean, unusual is a good way to describe it. Unprecedented, historic. These are also words that we could use. Ahmed al-Sharaa, it was his first visit to Washington, the first visit to the White House by a Syrian head of state since Syria gained its independence from France in 1946. So I think it's really important to get some context here. So this is the 43-year-old leader who led the rebel forces that toppled former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad last December. He then went ahead and appointed himself as president of Syria back in January. This is his 20th trip as leader, as he really tries to reverse what has been decades of Syrian isolation on the world stage. And he's really trying to reinvent his country diplomatically, not just within the Middle East, but globally as well.

Dhruva Jaishankar: And what is his, I mean, he has really interesting background. Tell us a little bit about his background.

Rachel Rizzo: It's a fascinating background and I think this is really where it gets interesting. So back in the early 2000s, he joined the Islamist insurgents who were at the time battling US forces in Iraq. He was then captured by US forces in 2006 and then jailed for five years, released in 2011, crossed the border into Syria, and when he got to Syria established an al-Qaeda backed rebel army to fight against the forces who were loyal to the then president Assad. So for years, he was only known as this fighter named Abu Mohammad al-Julani and the leader of Syria's al-Qaeda branch. He had a $10 million US bounty on his head. What ended up happening then is that he divorced himself from al-Qaeda. And then ended up leading the forces who toppled Assad. And interestingly enough, the US sent a delegation back in December to meet with him for the first time. And that is when they ended up removing the $10 million bounty. This is not his first trip to the United States.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Yeah.

Rachel Rizzo: He came to the US for UN meetings back in September. And it was a super fascinating moment because he was on stage at the Concordia Summit next to David Petraeus who interviewed him. And this was the general who commanded US forces during their invasion of Iraq, the exact forces who captured Al-Sharah and imprisoned him for five years. So just an immensely fascinating turnaround for this person.

Dhruva Jaishankar: I was in New York actually when that happened and it was all these conspiracy theories floating about of like having a former CIA director..

Rachel Rizzo: Really?

Dhruva Jaishankar: With the jailer and the jailee, you know the person he jailed on stage together.

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah, the captor and the captive. Yeah, so many things. Yep.

Dhruva Jaishankar: But there were all these online, there were all these conspiracy theories floating about that as well. So anyway, so what now? What came out of his meeting with Trump? By the way, just a funny thing, he has a sort of weird dynamic or some interesting dynamic with Trump, like Trump jokes with him when he meets him and he's like, he asked him like, how many wives do you have? And things like that.

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah, he's a very strong man. he's, yeah, and this was like all the months he's been saying these things.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Yeah. I think the first time Trump met him at some summit, he was like, he's really handsome. He's a good looking guy and stuff like that.

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah, exactly. That's right.

Dhruva Jaishankar: : Yeah. Sorry. So what came out of their White House meeting?

Rachel Rizzo: So what now? I mean, look, he announced that Syria is going to join the global coalition to defeat ISIS. That's a huge deal. This makes Syria the 90th member of that coalition. He's also looking to repeal what's called the Caesar Act. And this is a series of sanctions that the US applied to Syria in 2019 during Assad's rule because of gross human rights abuses. So Trump has lifted sanctions and the US extended its paws on most of the other sanctions for another 180 days, but before repealing them fully, which requires an act of Congress, that's where you get into the politics now in the US, the domestic politics. Some foreign policy hawks, notably Lindsey Graham, really want to put requirements in place to review every six months before those sanctions are fully repealed. So that's something to watch. Also, the World Bank estimates that Syria is going to need $216 billion for reconstruction. So a lot of things happening at the same time here for al-Sharaa to both deal with at home and abroad. And I think this is just the beginning of a very long story. Something that I'm sure that we'll talk about again at some point.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Yeah, know, a few other things with the caveat. Syria is not a place I follow that closely, but just a few other things that would be interesting to watch going forward. Israel made gains beyond the Golan Heights into Syria. It'd be interesting to see the future of the Israeli presence, including whether it's a control over airspace, but also land as well beyond the Golan Heights. Two, Russia had established a base there in Latakia in Syria.

Rachel Rizzo: Mm-hmm.

Dhruva Jaishankar: And I think the future of the Russian presence in the Middle East also sort of hangs in the balance. And then a third thing is there have been some interest in including Syria now in IMEC proposals, so India, Middle East, Europe corridor, just having more lines of communication, whether it's ground or port access on the Mediterranean, just given the uncertainties in Israel. And so it's interesting how this sort of political reconfiguration in Syria could have, again, the spillover effect beyond that.

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah, absolutely. This is not just related to Syria. It goes far beyond, has reverberations for trade, for security, for many other topics. But as always, Dhruva and I will be keeping an eye on all of these developments and more and making sure we're keeping you, our listeners, up to date on the latest happenings in geopolitics. So as we mentioned, make sure to tune in every Friday for new episodes. And as I mentioned at the beginning, be sure to like and subscribe to the Around the World podcast on Spotify and on YouTube.

Dhruva Jaishankar: And if there are any topics you'd like us to discuss or go into in more detail, feel free to add them in the comments, particularly in YouTube. We'll try and keep track of that. But as always, thank you for joining us on the Around the World podcast. We'll see you next week.

Episode 4 : Sudan Civil War, Dutch Elections, New Nuclear Age

November 7, 2025 — In this week’s episode of Around the World, hosts Dhruva Jaishankar and Rachel Rizzo unpack Sudan’s escalating civil war and its geopolitical implications for nations such as Eritrea, Djibouti, and Somaliland. They also recap the Netherlands’ latest elections and the potential return to nuclear testing following Trump’s recent announcement.

Available on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

SNEAK PEAK

Dhruva Jaishankar: Russia, interestingly, has been interested in a port at Port Sudan since at least 2017. And this would be its first base if they were able to establish a military base there in Africa. And it's been complicated by, again, the civil war and the changing geopolitics

Rachel Rizzo: I hit translate, and there seems to be an issue with the Instagram translate function because it translated it into the prime minister of the underworld instead of the prime minister of the Netherlands. And that went totally and it went totally viral in the Netherlands

Dhruva Jaishankar: In summary, we're now in for a new nuclear age, which has some exciting and some terrifying potential, both for energy and for security.

Welcome to around the world

Dhruva Jaishankar: Hi, I'm Dhruva Jaishankar.

Rachel Rizzo: And I'm Rachel Rizzo. Welcome to the Around the World podcast, your essential guide to understanding the forces shaping our world today. Every week, we cut through the noise to bring you clear, insightful analysis on some of the most important developments in geopolitics.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Whether it's security challenges across Europe, shifting power dynamics in Asia, domestic updates from the United States, or regional developments in Latin America or the Middle East, we make sure you're up to speed on what's happening and more importantly, why it matters.

Rachel Rizzo: Thanks for tuning in and be sure to like and subscribe the Around the World podcast on Spotify and YouTube.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Hi, Rachel. How are things with you? Where are you in, where you speaking from today?

Rachel Rizzo: I'm in Salt Lake City, Utah, my hometown, hanging out with my parents, doing yard work. Lots of fall leaves to rake up.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Good good. And as usual, again, a lot going on. think this week we will discuss Sudan's civil war, which has been in the news the last few weeks. Elections in the Netherlands I'd love to hear your take on that and what it means for Europe. And Donald Trump has suggested, hinted at a possible resumption of nuclear testing and why that matters and what that means. So those are some big topics to go into, but a lot of other stories in the news of what have been a few things you've been watching.

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah, I mean, obviously, it was a big election week here in the United States. It was a good week for Democrats in that sense. You had a Democrat win the New Jersey gubernatorial race, the Virginia gubernatorial race. You also had Zohran Mamdani,a self proclaimed, self proclaimed democratic socialist, win the New York City race for mayor. So a lot going on. There's a lot of hot takes on the internet at the moment.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Yeah. What's your hot take?

Rachel Rizzo: I mean, my hot take, there's a couple things. I mean, it seems like when Donald Trump isn't on the ballot, Democrats seem to do better. There wasn't really like a MAGA adjacent candidate, even in New York City. I mean, you had a Republican running, but it was a little bit muddy in that way. And so I think before we give the hot takes, I think we have to see what happens in terms of Zohran being able to govern in New York. But it does seem like maybe people are ready for less spicy politics at the moment. Things have been pretty polarized for a while. So we'll see how it goes. What have you been watching? Yeah.

Dhruva Jaishankar: So my two cents on that is I wouldn't put too much stock into Mamdani's victory. I mean, at least in terms of the national implications of that

Rachel Rizzo: I think that's right, yeah.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Or Spanberger even in Virginia, both were running against pretty unpopular candidates on the Republican side. The ones that were more interesting for me to watch, one was the New Jersey gubernatorial elections where it was more the margin of victory, which was quite surprising for Mikie Sherrill. Two actually the Virginia Attorney General race was actually really interesting because again, it was a popular incumbent, Republican incumbent against a somewhat controversial candidate on the Democratic side, yet the Democrats won. And then Mississippi as well, actually, again, a very red state where essentially the Republicans lost the super majority there. those to me are more indicative of the at least popular discomfort with parts of the GOP. And again, I'm hesitant about reading too much into it as I'm seeing a lot of analysis doing.

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah, I mean, it does seem like it's hard to take, especially the Mamdani win in New York City and have a situation where the Democrats say, okay, now we need to run this type of candidate in other states around the US. I think this is a very New York specific election. And so we'll see what the lessons learned look like. But what else have you been watching this week?

Dhruva Jaishankar: So three, four other things, interesting thing to watch. Former US Vice President Dick Cheney passed away. He has, was somebody who left a big foreign policy legacy, for better or for worse, controversial in many quarters, but also indicative of how quickly and how much the Republican Party of the US has moved on from, in some ways, his legacy.

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah, it has.

Dhruva Jaishankar: And then looking around the world, we had the Philippines and the UAE's join or apply to join CPTPP, the trade deal. This is a mega trade agreement involving several countries, including Japan, Australia, several Southeast Asian countries, Canada. The United States was part of the negotiations with them withdrew under in the Trump's first term.

Rachel Rizzo: Okay.

Dhruva Jaishankar: But now we have countries like the Philippines and UAE wanting to join that. Again, that's indicative of in some ways, the changing trade order. We have the US Supreme Court hearing arguments this week about the legality of Trump's tariffs. Some of the conservative judges seem to express some skepticism, and we may have a judgment on that in January next year or possibly in the summer, maybe extended to the summer. A few other things, Pakistan has, it might be passing a constitutional amendment law of speculation about what that means. Could it mean more power for the Chief of Army staff there. So another thing to just keep an eye on. One other more random thing, a former UK Deputy Prime Minister, Nick Clegg, who then subsequently joined Metta Facebook.

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah, it was a big wig at Meta, yeah.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Yeah, he, and again, was one time sort of seen as a future Prime Minister. Well, his wife is, who's Spanish, is starting a new political party in Spain. We’ll see where that goes. So some interesting things happening around the world. Yeah.

Sudan’s Civil war

Rachel Rizzo: Interesting. Okay, and we'll get into European political parties in a few minutes here. You know, but first I want to get us to the topics du jour. We've talked a lot about the Indo-Pacific, we've talked about South America, we haven't talked about Africa as much in our first few episodes. And we wanted to tackle that today because if you've been watching the news, you've heard a lot of what's going on in Sudan. And so I wanted to talk to you a little bit about what is going on there. So our listeners have, have a sense of how things are developing and where this all came from.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Yeah, so Sudan is back in the front pages because we saw the fall of a town called El-Fasher, which is in Darfur, a region now, we'll into a little bit more why some people maybe are familiar with Darfur, which is in Western Sudan, to a militia called the RSF which used to be part of the government, but is now engaged in a civil war with the army in Sudan.

Rachel Rizzo: Mm-hmm.

There's been a media blackout in El-Fasher, so there's been very trickles of information coming out, but just reports of horrifying violence, large numbers of civilians killed. The satellite imagery issuing bodies piling up.

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah, it's pretty gruesome.

Dhruva Jaishankar: So there are indications, despite the media blackout, that it's quite horrifying violence.

Rachel Rizzo: So why now? mean, why is Sudan back in the news now? Why did this all come to a head at this particular moment?

Dhruva Jaishankar: Yeah, so Sudan, you know, was quite conflict ridden for a while until 2019, the country was led by Omar al-Bashir in Khartoum and you had different overlapping conflicts, one in the south where you had a Christian, I mean, again, it's a multi ethnic country, but in the south, have a Christian majority of countries that were seeking independence or autonomy. And it's again, a very mineral rich part of the country. And then on the in the west, you have a sort of Arab versus non Arab kind of sectarian tensions, including in Darfur. And this eventually resulted in Omar al-Bashir being toppled in 2019 in a coup, a kind of a unity, some interim government being formed by a former army and former militia. So there was a militia called the Janjaweed, which were sort of at the forefront of the violence in Darfur. They kind of became incorporated into, they evolved into what's the RSF, the Rapid Support Forces, and there was kind of a power sharing arrangement after between 2019 and 2023 that was kind of uneasily brokered. And then South Sudan, of course, became independent. So that's kind of what happened. And that interim government lasted for a few years. And then in April 2023, very suddenly, there was a falling out between the army led by Al-Burhan, who's the general in charge of the army and rapid support forces led by a man popularly known as Hemedti. And this, know, people who spoke to people who were in Khartoum at the time. And it was like one day life was going on as normal. The next day suddenly there was just like a gunfire everywhere. It was like chaos on streets.

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah.

Dhruva Jaishankar: So it erupted very suddenly. And we've been locked in this civil war for about two and a half years between the army, supported by a bunch of external actors and the RSF mostly supported, at least it's indicated that a lot of the support is coming from the United Arab Emirates in particular for the RSF.

Rachel Rizzo: Mm-hmm.

Dhruva Jaishankar: There has been the involvement of other external parties for a while. The Wagner group, is a Russian mercenary group, was involved. Ethiopia, Egypt, Libyan mercenaries have all been in various ways involved, either as mediators or supporting one, potential mediators or supporting one side or the other. And then earlier this year, saw essentially Khartoum, the capital shift and the army take it back. And Borheim sort of reappeared in Khartoum. They got the airport again. This was sort of a big deal in the shifting balance there.

Rachel Rizzo: Okay, and so now are things getting worse? Are things stabilizing? It seems like they're getting worse. I mean, just based on reading the news.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Right. So again, shifted a little part. know, it has now moved. The conflict has moved more to the western parts of the country, to Darfur, which is the western region of the country.

Rachel Rizzo: Okay.

Dhruva Jaishankar: The latest violence is really going to draw a lot of attention to it, global attention. There's already been criticism of the UAE, particularly for its support for RSF. But I mean, it remains to be seen whether this gets worse. But it's sort of moved away from... Khartoum was quite divided for a while the capital.

Rachel Rizzo: Okay, and then is there stuff that you can sort of extrapolate from this in terms of what it means for region-wide geopolitics?

Dhruva Jaishankar: Yeah, so Sudan had been, after 2019, kind of slowly moving towards a sort of reintegration with the of the international community in many ways. There was even talk of sort of a move towards a more democratic representative government to Sudan joining the Abraham Accords, which would mean recognizing Israel. And it kind of had started to move past the sub-Darfur violence of the early 2000s and the independence of South Sudan. We've now kind of seen with the return of the civil war sort of relapse, if you will. But this is part of the broader reshaping of East Africa that is underway. And the key question is in some ways competition for access to the Red Sea.

Rachel Rizzo: Of course.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Because you have a bunch of landlocked countries, Ethiopia being perhaps the largest of them. And there's a kind of race for who can offer and enable access to various key Red Sea ports, which are important for global shipping. It's a major waterway as we all know. And so you have Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, and Somaliland, Somalia, part of Somalia, which are all kind of in the mix there. Russia, interestingly, has been interested in a port at Port Sudan since at least 2017. And this would be its first base if they were able to establish a military base there in Africa. And it's been complicated by, again, the civil war and the changing geopolitics there. And it's faced with number of challenges. And at the moment, Djibouti kind of has a virtual monopoly on that and has essentially hosting US, Chinese, French, and Japanese bases in Djibouti right now. At the same time, again, there's a push for others to explore you know Russia has been looking at Port Sudan. There's also been a push led by the UAE to recognize Somaliland.

Rachel Rizzo: Mm-hmm.

Dhruva Jaishankar: This is the northern part of Somalia that had sort of a slightly separate colonial history. It was a British colony rather Italian one, and has its own government. It's been functionally independent for a while, but has not been recognized by the international community as independent. And there's now a bit of sort of renewed push to do that. The future of all of this is now kind of, this turmoil is sort of shaping all of this, again, the future of Sudan, the question of access to the Red Sea, and the role of external actors is all being shaped by this.

Rachel Rizzo: Okay. I mean, I do think it'd be interesting to have a broader conversation at some point about the role of the Wagner group. This is obviously, as you mentioned, the Russian mercenary group, Yevgeny Progozin used to be the head of it. He was obviously taken out by Putin a year and a half ago, a couple of years ago at this point.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Yeah the plane crash.

Rachel Rizzo: He had a quote unquote plane crash as they all do. And so that might be something worth chatting about at some point. But you also had a tweet from, I think it was Rubio, Marco Rubio talking about potential military force in Nigeria, US military force. It's not the only thing happening in Africa at the moment. Yep.

Dhruva Jaishankar: So yeah, it's not the only conflict in Africa. Yeah, certainly this seemed to come a little bit out of the blue, you know, again, Nigeria has a very large Christian population, particularly in the South, Muslim majority population mostly in the North and Northeast. And for a variety of reasons, it seems like the religious tensions there have suggested that. And it isn't just Rubio, I saw another US Senator who's on a particular committee, a relevant committee, also reinforce, you well, maybe this is not out of the realm of possibility. At the same time, Trump has downplayed that as well, military involvement. So it’s been interesting to see again, who would have thought a few years ago, that a year ago that it's actually in Africa and Latin America that the U.S. under Trump might be more willing to use force. mean, the focus have been in Europe and Asia and the Middle East. But again, these things seem to be coming a little out of the blue.

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah. We'll watch it closely.

Tight race in the netherlands

Dhruva Jaishankar: Shifting northwards a little bit. We had elections in the Netherlands. So start us off. What happened there?

Rachel Rizzo: We did. So to paint a clear picture of what just happened in the Netherlands, you really have to go back to October of 2023. And this is when a man named Geert Wilders, he's the head of a far right Dutch party called the Party for Freedom, the PVV. He won a victory during that election with 37 seats in parliament. And that made him and his party, the largest party in the Netherlands for the first time. This was described as one of the biggest political upsets in Dutch politics since World War II, having really a far right party win a, not an absolute majority in parliament, but a clear majority. And then he joined a coalition with three other parties at the time. Interestingly enough though, even though his party was the most popular, he did not become the prime minister.

Dhruva Jaishankar: And why was that? Again, generally by convention, the party that finishes largest has an ability to form government or coalition. So, yeah.

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah, absolutely. That's usually what happens. But there just wasn't enough support around his specific candidacy for prime minister. And these debates went on for months. So at some point, it just became clear he wasn't going to have the votes. And so this man named Dick Schoof, who was an unelected career bureaucrat.

Dhruva Jaishankar: He's a former intelligence officer, he?

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah, he was just like a Dutch, know, sort of like an FSO, or Foreign Service Officer in the US. He emerged as this compromise candidate. And so this was a first in Dutch politics. Basically what had happened is Geert Wilders had been quote firewalled because of his extreme views. And so he finally relented and after 11 months, this government that Dick Schoof was leading ended up collapsing in June of this year because of disagreements over migration policy. And it was actually the PVV, Geert Wilder's party, that ended up leaving the coalition and causing it to co-op. So that's why we had an election last week.

Dhruva Jaishankar: So what happened in the election?

Rachel Rizzo: So basically just days before the election, it looked like the PVV was going to perform well yet again, maybe not as good as they did in 2023, but they were gonna perform well. And it looked like it was gonna be a close three way race between the Greens, the Centrist Party, the D66 and the PVV. What ended up happening is the D66 led by Jetten won the most votes. They narrowly eked out a win over the PVV. So now what ends up happening is, as we all know in parliamentary politics, the hard work of forming a coalition begins. During the campaign, this new incoming, presumably incoming PM talked a lot about forming a progressive government, focusing on things like green energy, looking at affordable housing, health care, focusing on more humane aspects of immigration policy. And at this point, there's basically no way anyone is going to invite the PVV into a coalition again. So it looks like this far right party is out of government, at least for now.

Dhruva Jaishankar: So, Geert Wilder’s out. And I don't know if you saw, he's become infamous for a tweet that he did, which is in Dutch, but it's basically, if you understand English, you can understand all of it, which is it's, have a serious problem. And it's become sort of a running joke. You didn't know that? Okay. All right. Okay.

Rachel Rizzo: I don't think I knew that. I also have a funny Netherlands story, I will tell you after Ifinish explaining what's going on with Dutch politics.

Dhruva Jaishankar: A lot of us have funny Netherlands stories, but so okay. Now I'm always again cautious about sort of taking one election like this, like we talked about the US election and sort of reading too much into it. But what do think the implications are for right-wing parties around Europe?

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah. So you're right, it's hard to extrapolate something broader from this. So right now we have right wing parties heading the governments of four EU member states - Belgium, Italy, Hungary. They're part of coalitions in places like Finland and Slovakia and Sweden. On top of that, the AFD in Germany, the Alternative for Deutschland, the far right party in Germany is super popular. They're up above 20 % in the polls, but they still aren't in government because of this firewall that I talked about. That is in the Netherlands. It's obviously in Germany too. The National Rally Party in France is still super popular, even though Marine Le Pen has been barred from running for public office because of fraud. Her co-leader of the party, Jordan Bardella, young guy, right wing, really popular. So when you talk to analysts about this, mean, it looks like this isn't really a short term trend. This is a political movement that's been building around the continent for a couple of decades now. And this is driven by voters who in the United States too, we can have this conversation, who feel neglected, who have expressed concerns on things like immigration. And what we have seen as a result of this is centrist mainstream parties in Europe have begun adopting more hardline policies and talking points, especially on migration, because they see those messages resonating. And at the same time, this political firewall that has thus far kept far right parties out of governing coalitions is really increasingly difficult to maintain because their electoral success keeps growing. At the same time, looking at the Dutch elections just now, you had the PVV collapse from 37 seats in 2023 down to 26 seats after just 11 months in a coalition. So that actually suggests they might lose support when they actually have to govern and make compromises.

Dhruva Jaishankar: And do you think any lessons to be learned here for center-right, center-left parties that have been sort of on the back foot in many European, particularly Western European countries over the past decade or so?

Rachel Rizzo: I think so. And I think those lessons are beginning to be learned and discussed. First of all, I think these parties need to find a way to talk about hot button issues in a way that acknowledges voters concerns. This is things like immigration, like I mentioned before, things like defense spending, climate policies. Back in 2015, Angela Merkel, the former German chancellor, had this famous phrase, wir schaffen das, which basically means we'll manage this. And it was in reference to the immigration crisis that was facing Europe back in 2015. And clearly that message didn't end up resonating because this is the issue that so many voters are flocking to the AFD over. And so I think they'll need to figure out what to do about that. They'll also need to figure out what to do about this political firewall, keeping far right parties out of governance, because ultimately I think voters will feel like their voices are not being heard. This does not mean I am saying that they should invite far right parties into coalitions, not at all. That's not what I'm saying, but it does mean that they have to figure out a way to contend with this. And I think that this is a live issue, it's a live wire. There's not a clear sense of what to do on that front quite yet. But no, I want to tell you my funny Netherlands story really quickly. So a few years ago, the Greek prime minister visited the prime minister of the Netherlands. Yeah, I think it was. Or maybe it was the other way around. Maybe it was the Dutch prime minister visiting Greece. Anyways, there was a post about it on Instagram, like a government post, a very well-followed account. But the message was written in Greek. And so I hit translate, and there seems to be an issue with the Instagram translate function because it translated it into the prime minister of the underworld instead of the prime minister of the Netherlands. And that went totally and it went totally viral in the Netherlands because I put it on I put it on Twitter and I was like, wow, Instagram needs to work on it needs to work on its translation function because it's a literal it's a literal translation, but it said the prime minister of the underworld.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Yeah, but I mean, it's a literal translation, but like nether, nether, nether land.

Rachel Rizzo: So I thought it was really funny and everyone else did, too. Anyway, so so moving on kind of back to the US a little bit, we'll obviously keep following far right politics in Europe, but heading back to the US.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Right, right, okay, okay.

Return to nuclear

Rachel Rizzo: There seems to be some discussion about a resumption of nuclear testing. That's something we should discuss probably.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Yeah, so you know nuclear testing the testing of nuclear weapons has been somewhat taboo since the 1990s France did a round of tests in the South Pacific in the 90s which were quite controversial then India and Pakistan did tests in 1998, but really haven't done any tests since then it's been 27 years So it's really only in North Korea that has done five I believe now is five or six tests and again There is a particular unique context around that. It's a lot of it is about the signaling aspect of it as well. Now Trump has now seemed to say like what's wrong with now resuming for the United States resuming nuclear testing. China and Russia have been doing it. He said, Pakistan, North Korea have been doing it. And at first again, they got a lot of pushback. are like, wait, Russian China haven't done it for a while now. But CIA Director John Ratcliffe kind of backed him up and said that there been reports even from before the Trump administration that China and Russia were kind of skirting some of their obligations in terms of doing things just short of a sort of major nuclear test. Trump said very specifically that, you know, they're doing a deep underground, we don't feel it, which is, it would be noticed. It's very hard to get away with doing a serious explosion. But anyway, so he got a little bit of backup from the CIA on. that

Rachel Rizzo: Okay, and then the energy secretary, Chris Wright, said it actually may not even require explosions.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Yeah, so again, there's a little bit of confusion. It could be that Trump is kind of conflating two or three different things here. So one is, in many of the cases he seemed to cite, they were actually conducting tests of nuclear capable delivery systems like missiles, which they're doing. And everyone is doing that. Everyone is modernizing their nuclear arsenals. China is, Russia is, India, Pakistan, Israel, everyone's doing it. The other thing is he could be talking about non-explosive testing. And that is done sort of periodically to update and to you know, that is done even by the United States. So there is a bit of that. And in some cases, they seem to be referring to test pretty Pakistan, North Korea that we're done. But it's been a little while, but again, the case of Pakistan. So it could have been conflating a little bit of all of that. But the fact is we are in the midst of a global renewal of nuclear armament.

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah

Dhruva Jaishankar: It is happening and it is largely driven by China's rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal. For many years, China's had nuclear capability since 1964, it kept a pretty small arsenal on purpose. And now in the past, for reasons that are not entirely clear, they're rapidly expanding their nuclear arsenal. And so others are following, including now, again, the US might be doing so, Russia. And then others are just investing more in sophisticated delivery systems, longer ranges, more precise missiles. different platforms. China did a test of orbital glide vehicles, which are meant to circumvent a lot of traditional ballistic missile defense systems.

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah, I remember that.

Dhruva Jaishankar: You're seeing new sea and submarine launch capabilities. And then, again, three years ago, we had a pretty serious scare of Russia threatening and coming very close to using a tactical nuclear weapon in the context of the Ukraine War, quite possibly as a warning shot in the Black Sea or something more. But it was very serious and one day the book will be written on how close the world got to the first use of a nuclear weapon since Nagasaki, at least in the conflict time. So all in all, we've come a long way from talk about nuclear disarmament. You may remember in 2008 Barack Obama became president and he made this famous speech in Prague, think in 2009, I think.

Rachel Rizzo: Mm-hmm.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Where he talked about a world without nuclear weapons. And yet he ended up, by the end of his presidency, ordering one of the largest modernization programs of the US nuclear weapon arsenal. So we've come a long way since then.

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah, it doesn't seem like there's gonna be a decrease in nuclear weapons anytime soon. But it's also related to nuclear energy a little bit.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Yeah, yeah, absolutely. So this new nuclear age that we're in is in the military realm is also coming at a time of something of a civilian nuclear, civilian nuclear energy renaissance. And nuclear energy had long been seen by publics in many places as dangerous because of accidents in Chernobyl in the 1980s, in Fukushima in 2011.

Rachel Rizzo: Mm-hmm.

Dhruva Jaishankar: And so we saw a lot of countries, Germany most noticeably sort of essentially doing away with nuclear energy. But those two accidents particularly happened under very unusual circumstances. And now, particularly with climate change pressures, cost as well, nuclear energy is now being seen as a cheaper, more energy secure, and in some cases, a cleaner alternative to fossil fuels. So even Germany is now considering reinvesting in nuclear energy. And countries like the UAE certainly are, which is sitting on a lot of oil riches. Even they have a pretty advanced nuclear program. There have also been some new technological breakthroughs. And one is the development of what are called small modular reactors, SMRs, which are underway. China and Russia are somewhat leading in that game, but there's several private US companies now sort of trying to go into that area. It is still more useful and practical in theory than in practice. So we'll see how cost effective some of them are. A lot of data centers are looking at these small modular reactors to power the power data centers. Another new development somewhat is nuclear fusion, which has long been seen as the holy grail for clean energy. This is essentially the same similar reaction to what powers the sun. But there's some hints that a breakthrough is in sight that the technological problem is still to this day, more energy is required to go in to create that catalytic process.

Rachel Rizzo: Yep.

Dhruva Jaishankar: So you know, so it's a net loss, an energy loss. So hold your breath on that. But in summary, we're now in for a new nuclear age, which has some exciting and some terrifying potential, both for energy and for security.

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah, absolutely. And I know this is a hot topic in Europe as well in terms of the discussion around nuclear energy. It's been such a politically salient discussion for decades, especially with, you know, political parties like the Greens in places like Germany. So something to watch, something to discuss. As always, we'll be keeping an eye on these developments and more, and we'll make sure we're keeping you, our listeners, up to date on all the latest happenings. Again, be sure to tune in every Friday for the latest episodes. And if you haven't already, like and subscribe to the Around the World podcast on Spotify and YouTube. Thanks so much, Druva. We'll see everyone next week.

Episode 3 : U.S.-China Truce, Frozen Russian Assets, Venezuela Tensions

October 31, 2025 — Hosts Dhruva Jaishankar and Rachel Rizzo cover Trump's Asia tour, the complexities surrounding frozen Russian assets in Europe, and the escalating situation in Venezuela amidst recent U.S. involvement in this week’s episode of Around the World.

Available on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

TRANSCRIPT

Sneak Peek

Dhruva Jaishankar: Essentially, this is a truce. This is a one-year trade truce between the United States and China. There's still a question. Markets are going to welcome this, but there's still a question about will this hold.

Rachel Rizzo: There is this principle of sovereign immunity which protects state assets from seizure by other countries. Otherwise, we'd be doing this all the time.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Venezuela has made claims to a very large section of neighboring Guyana. It's a region called Essequibo, because it's a sparsely populated and oil-rich region. And if you look on a map, it's a pretty big chunk of the country.

Rachel Rizzo: Mm-hmm.

Welcome to Around the World

Dhruva Jaishankar: Hi, I'm Dhruva Jaishankar.

Rachel Rizzo: And I'm Rachel Rizzo. Welcome to the Around the World podcast. Your essential guide to understanding the forces shaping our world today. Every week, we cut through the noise to bring you clear, insightful analysis of the most important developments in geopolitics.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Whether it's security challenges across Europe, shifting power dynamics in Asia, domestic updates from the United States, or regional updates from Latin America or the Middle East, we make sure you're up to speed on what's happening and more importantly, why it matters.

Rachel Rizzo: Thanks for tuning in.

Rachel Rizzo: Dhruva, happy Friday. How was your week?

Dhruva Jaishankar: Happy Friday. Interesting, good. We had a conference on US-China relations this week. A lot happening around the world, so a pretty eventful week.

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah, as we said last week, it's Newsy, Newsy as usual. On the topic of Asia, that is one of the topics we are going to be chatting about today. We have a full docket. We're going to chat about Trump's Asia trip. We are going to talk about what is going on with these discussions about frozen Russian assets in Europe. We kind of mentioned this on the show last week, so we'll do a little bit more of a deep dive today. And then we are going to go down to South America and talk about what is happening with the US and Venezuela.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Yeah, yes.

Trump's Asia TRIP

Rachel Rizzo: So to get us started, let us start in the Indo-Pacific region. Trump, big Asia trip. What have you been watching? Is there a deal? What should we be looking at here?

Dhruva Jaishankar: Yeah, so US President Donald Trump went to Asia this week, his first major trip to Asia in his second term. The stops included Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, for the ASEAN and East Asia Summit meetings. He oversaw the agreement between Thailand and Cambodia. There had been fighting between the two countries. This is actually a case where ASEAN, an organization that has been in for lot of criticism, actually helped broker an agreement at the end, but the United States, Trump wants to see himself again as the peacemaker. And so there was a little bit of like, well, let's pretend to give him some greater credit than is perhaps due for this. The original agreement was signed a little while ago in the presence of Chinese and US officials. Certainly, so that was one thing there. Then he goes to Japan. The Japanese lay out the red carpet for him. It's his first meeting with the new prime minister of Japan, Sanae Takaichi.

Rachel Rizzo: Okay. Yep.

Dhruva Jaishankar: We spoke about this a little bit last week that this was going be a test for her, it seemed to have really rolled out the red carpet for him. He seemed really pleased. They did a deal on rare earths, which seems to be kind of a standard practice nowadays in all of Trump's negotiations. But then what everyone was paying attention to was him going for this APEC summit to Seoul, to South Korea. And this is the first meeting of Trump and Xi Jinping, China's leader, in Trump's second term, first face-to-face meeting. They've spoken on the phone before.

Dhruva Jaishankar: And what everyone was looking for was, was there going to be a trade deal between the United States and China, the world's two largest economies.

Rachel Rizzo: Mm-hmm. Okay.

Dhruva Jaishankar: At periods of time, they had over 140 % tariffs on Chinese goods to the United States earlier this year. They've since come down.

Rachel Rizzo: That's all we've been talking about it seems like.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Yeah. So the short version is we got a ceasfire.

Rachel Rizzo: On trade you mean?

Dhruva Jaishankar: Yes we got a U.S.-China ceasefire on trade when Xi and Trump met. This was hammered out by negotiators in Kuala Lumpur just a few days before the meet. Now, a few things. Briefly, what the US gets and what Trump gets out of this is a resumption by China, a commitment to resume rare earth magnet exports.

Rachel Rizzo: Ok.

Dhruva Jaishankar: And to crack down on fentanyl and a commitment to buy soybeans and other agricultural products from the United States. Now, these are all important because these really advance, the rare earths are really needed at this point. China has the United States over a barrel on that issue. But the others are kind of more politically oriented. Before the midterms next year, Trump wants to make sure that there's an increase in exports of American agricultural goods because that matters. China in turn gets tariffs reduced a little bit to about 47%, I think we're looking at. So the fentanyl tax essentially, 20%, has been dropped to 10%.

Rachel Rizzo: Ok.

Dhruva Jaishankar: And a delay on American export restrictions. And possibly, although there's some mixed reporting coming out now, continued access to advanced AI chips. So this is kind of what both sides get out of the deal. A few things though to keep in mind. Nothing as yet has been signed.

Rachel Rizzo: Oh it hasn't. So we're still waiting for...

Dhruva Jaishankar: No. They've announced an agreement, but so far no pen to paper. Again, this may change in the next few hours or days.

Rachel Rizzo: Okay, could there be some changes in between the discussion and what's signed?

Dhruva Jaishankar It's unclear why, but we'll see. Nothing has been signed yet, again, as of this recording but that could change. But essentially, this is a truce. This is a one-year trade truce between the United States and China. there's still question. Markets are going to welcome this, but there's still a question about will this hold? And we've seen, again, evidence, whether it's with the US and Canada or others, where some of these things, or the US and China in 2017, where some of these agreements haven't really held. Both are going to try and seek advantages in these few areas over the next year as well.

Rachel Rizzo: So Trump went to the Indo-Pacific, obviously the meeting with the new Japanese Prime Minister was on the top of the agenda, obviously this meeting with Xi. One term I did not hear you use in this discussion was the Quad. Was there anything, any discussion on the Quad during this visit or is that sort of maybe for other times, other issues, other people?

Dhruva Jaishankar: I think that's a good question. I think it remains to be seen. There was an opportunity. India is not a member of APEC.

Rachel Rizzo: There you go, okay.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Last year, the Commerce Minister participated in the APEC summit, but India is not a regular attendee. The occasion that would have been the occasion is the East Asia Summit in Malaysia. And India's Prime Minister Modi decided not to go, partly because there hadn't been sufficient progress on a US-India trade deal.

Rachel Rizzo: That makes sense. Okay.

Dhruva Jaishankar: So you had the Japanese Auralian U.S. leaders there, but no Indian. And so there was no opportunity for a Quad, like a side meeting, which in the past, it would have been something like that quite possibly. There's some talk, mean, Prime Minister Modi did speak to the Japanese Prime Minister a couple of days ago, and in the Japanese readout, they mentioned the Quad as well. There's some talk about a meeting in India in early 2026. But again, it'll come down to whether there's progress on a trade deal, whether their political appetite is there and whether schedules align.

Rachel Rizzo: Okay, so we'll watch this closely and we'll probably do a deep dive at some point.

Dhruva Jaishankar: One small thing that's happening though, there is a US-India Air Force exercise and at least it's been reported that Japanese and Australian participants will be there. So it's kind of a quad air force exercise that may happen next week or in two weeks time.

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah. Where? Where's that?

Dhruva Jaishankar: I think it'll be in India this time, Cope India exercises. So again, there's some sort of very regular stuff happening, day-to-day stuff happening between the militaries, the foreign ministries, the four governments. But there's not yet a summit in sight, possibly early 2026.

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah. Yeah.Okay, good to know. We'll keep our eye on it.

Frozen Russian Assets

Dhruva Jaishankar: Moving a little bit to Europe. So after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, there was this question of Russian central bank reserves that were in European banks.

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah. Yeah.

Dhruva Jaishankar: And there's been this ongoing debate about what to do about it. So maybe start talking, talk us through where that debate stands right now and what might change.

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah, absolutely. So for anyone listening who has been following the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine and maybe how the U.S. and Europe can keep supporting Ukraine, you have definitely heard about the potential to use frozen Russian assets to support the Ukrainians. And I think it deserves a little bit of a breakdown because it's kind of a confusing financial mechanism. So after Russia's invasion in February of 2022, Western countries went ahead and froze about $300 billion worth of Russian central bank reserves. 185 billion euros of these are held at what's called EuroClear, and this is a Belgium-based central securities deposit. And in early 2024, you had the G7 countries finalize a $50 billion loan to Ukraine, and this was backed by interest generated from the frozen assets. You kept hearing these words, this phrase, windfall profits. And so that was that discussion about a year and a half ago. But interest payments are declining, which means that you can't get as much money from them anymore. And Ukraine still needs funding. So the question is, you have 185 billion euros sitting in this Belgian bank, sitting in Euroclear. Can the EU use this in some way to support Ukraine?

Dhruva Jaishankar: So that is the question, can they use this in some way? And so can they?

Rachel Rizzo: It's super complicated. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, she proposed what they're calling a reparations loan of up to 140 billion euros that would basically use the frozen Russian assets as collateral rather than relying on the actual assets. And so they're not gonna use the actual assets and there are reasons for that.

Dhruva Jaishankar: So what are some of the reasons?

Rachel Rizzo: So under international law, a sovereign country's assets can't just simply be confiscated. There is this principle of sovereign immunity which protects state assets from seizure by other countries. Otherwise, we'd be doing this all the time. Markets would be a mess. It would undermine the international financial system, risk retaliation, create legal problems. So the EU, what they're doing, they've had to find a workaround to this.

Dhruva Jaishankar: So what's the workaround?

Rachel Rizzo: So basically the plan as of now is that the EU would lend Ukraine up to 140 billion euros at 0% interest. And this would only need to be repaid by Ukraine if Russia pays Ukraine reparations. So we have sort of a triangular financial trick going on there, sort of a round robin as we used to call it in the finance industry. The loan would be guaranteed by the EU's next long-term budget or by individual member states. So they can give the Ukrainians the loan and if Russia doesn't pay reparations, which I don't think it is anytime soon, the loan is guaranteed by European funds. Obviously, because EuroClear is based in Belgium, Belgium has been super on the fence about this. They want guarantees that the risk is going to be shared with other European countries. And obviously national parliaments are going to need to agree on this, which makes it pretty complicated. So what we're now looking at, you had the EU Council Summit last week where they discussed this. They punted it until the next EU Council Summit in December. And at that point, they will discuss it further. They'll talk about what's feasible. And then hopefully we will have a clear answer by early 2026. But something that is not going to be solved in the next couple of weeks or couple of months. I think we're looking at a pretty long-term discussion here.

Dhruva Jaishankar: So we're looking at some pretty complicated and layered financial kind of mechanisms that are being used to generate so without actually touching the reserves because it's a sovereign issue. But I was talking to some Belgian officials a few weeks ago and they said one of the other concerns is just like they're worried about the precedent it might set, right?

Rachel Rizzo: Totally yeah.

Dhruva Jaishankar: And that basically Europe as a whole and Belgium in particular would lose some of its credibility. And this is in their view that it would lose its credibility as a financial, a trusted financial partner essentially. And so how much do think that that sort of stuff will weigh?

Rachel Rizzo: I think it weighs hugely on not only the Belgians, but other European countries as well. When you set precedent like this, it means that when you seize another country's assets, no assets are safe. And as I sort of mentioned before, we don't know what that would mean for European or for international financial markets, but it would certainly undermine them. So this is sort of a way to get around confiscating the actual assets, but using them in a way that is sort of financially mechanized and creative so that the Europeans aren't actually seizing the assets. My colleague actually at the Atlantic Council, Charles Litchfield, he's in our geo-economics team, he's super interesting on this, worth reading if you haven't. But as I mentioned, we will watch this closely and give you all updates as they come available.

Tensions in Venezuela and U.S. Involvement

Rachel Rizzo: And so on that, kind of wrapping up, wrapping up our round robin of a discussion, heading down to South America. The other thing that you've probably been paying attention to, if you've been watching the news here in the US, is the fact that we seem to be going down to Venezuela and bombing boats or shooting boats down. Can you tell us what's going on down there so that we have, I'm not even sure what's going on.

Dhruva Jaishankar: A little bit. And with the caveat that this is not an area I follow that closely, but it has some interesting spillover effects in others, which is partly why it is of interest to people who don't follow the region. Essentially, the Western Hemisphere at writ large has been a central focus of the second Trump administration. One thing there's actually been some consistency about there is that the senior Trump administration officials have focused a lot on the Western Hemisphere.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Whether it was sort of on concerns about the Panama Canal or Greenland early on and some of the statements that came out on that. But whether it's Marco Rubio himself, who is the Secretary of State, Chris Landau, the Deputy Secretary State, is a former ambassador to Mexico. This is a very Latin America-heavy focused administration. Now, one thing they've done is using the US military to do these strikes against targets, boats, which are carrying they say are carrying drugs, weapons and other illicit activity.

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah.

Dhruva Jaishankar: There have been at least 10 strikes on vessels embarking from Venezuela and Colombia, and that has led to casualties. And it's led to questions about how much of this is a Coast Guard issue, how much of this is a US military issue. So that’s really, we've seen a drumbeat of that building up. Last week, exactly a week ago, Trump ordered aircraft carrier battle group to Gerald Ford to actually go off Venezuela.

Rachel Rizzo: That’s a pretty big deal. Yeah.

Dhruva Jaishankar: That scene is sort of escalation because the Carrier Battle Group is like a floating military base. I mean its huge.

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah, I mean it's huge, yeah.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Yeah and with all the support around it. So a lot of it, the ostensible reason is to counter this, there's much more going on.

Rachel Rizzo: So it's not just about drugs. I mean, there's something obviously bigger going on here.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Yeah, a little bit background. So Venezuela in particular, Venezuela is sitting on the largest proven oil reserves of any country. It's massive, more than Saudi Arabia. And for many years it was led by Hugo Chavez, who is a sort of charismatic, sort of left-leaning populist leader. And it's just interesting to see, Venezuela a while ago was the richest country in South America per capita. It is now one of the poorest countries. And it's really a testament to the economic mismanagement of that country.

Rachel Rizzo: Wow.

Dhruva Jaishankar: It's led to a big outflow of migrants, many of whom have come to the United States. Venezuelan Americans, like Cuban Americans, tend to be pretty right-wing and supportive of the Republican Party. There's a domestic political component to it here in the United States as well. There's been this migration outflow. It has been tied into this war on drugs as well, although that's mostly been focused on Colombia. There's been this issue about whether Chavez who was succeeded by his vice president Maduro, who is now the leader and has been for some time now, successive U.S. governments have to different degrees supported opposition leaders and opposition parties to the Chavez regime, including inviting them to United States. At one of the State of the Union addresses you had Juan Guaidó, who was at that time the opposition leader. You had another opposition leader, María Corina Machado, win the Nobel Peace Prize this year that drew more attention to that.

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah.

Dhruva Jaishankar: So there's been this disputed election last year, a sizable opposition movement, and yet that has remained. So the real question that is on people's mind is, this really aggressive steps towards some kind of regime change or attempt at bringing toppling the Maduro government there?

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah, it kind of seems like everyone's wondering if we're going to try to do a coup, which goes against the peace-loving president that Donald Trump and his team have said that they are. I don't think that's, you know, that's not what I think is happening here. But it's a really big question on people's minds, it seems like.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Yeah, I think this is part of a trend that we're going to see of, in some ways, geopolitics returning to Latin America after a sort of 25, 30 year hiatus, really since the end of the Cold War. And there are a few layers to this. One, China is playing a bigger role.

Rachel Rizzo: Huge roll. Yep.

Dhruva Jaishankar: They've invested in Peru. Many countries in Latin America don't see China as a geopolitical challenge in the way that many in Asia and Europe do. It's going to be mostly on economic issues. The politics has become very polarized in Latin America. So you have these right-wing leaders like Milei in Argentina, Bukele in El Salvador, who tie their political fortunes quite closely to a self-Trumpist movement in the United States. And then you have the opposite of that. So Lula in Brazil, he's worried about the resurgence of Bolsonaro, who is seen as a self-Trumpist-like figure. So this kind of interesting set of alliances, if you will, political alliances is also emerging in Latin America with political parties in each country, arrayed on both sides of that divide. And then a couple of other interesting things changing this up. Venezuela has made claims to a very large section of neighboring Guyana. It's a region called Essequibo, because it's a sparsely populated and oil-rich region. And if you look on a map, it's a pretty big chunk of the country. And that's led to, Guyana is now a new oil exporter, a major oil exporter. suddenly again, you've had this geopolitical tensions coming in. Weirdly, Guyana has a very large Indian population.

Rachel Rizzo: Oh interesting.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Yeah, about more than 30 % of the current leader is of Indian origin. So there's now been this sort of, again, the interesting geopolitics of this, where countries are backing one side or the other. There are other countries, including the Caribbean, who are trying to broker an agreement between Guyana and Venezuela on this. So it is heating up in a slow way and a place to watch over the next few years, but has become a pretty central focus of the Trump administration.

Rachel Rizzo: And then just to close on that, what are you going to be looking at next in terms of how the United States is approaching this? It's obviously a priority for Rubio. What's he doing? Who else is looking at this closely?

Dhruva Jaishankar: So it is there. Again, let's see where this goes. And again, it's being caught in a combination of domestic political divisions, both in the United States and across Latin America, also again, the geopolitical. But you know strange things are happening. So in the middle of all of this, early in January, Rick Grinnell, who is Trump's special envoy for a multitude of issues, he actually flew in, I think, in late January, early February to Venezuela, negotiated the release of some Americans there, and met with Maduro personally. So again, all of that is happening at the same time as there seem to be these attempts at the very least sort of pushing back very aggressively on the Maduro government.

Rachel Rizzo: Okay, gosh, Rick Grinnell, super interesting character, former Trump ambassador to Germany. He's been all over the place, someone to watch closely. And obviously, you know, we'll be keeping an eye on all of these developments and we'll make sure we're keeping you, our listeners, up to date on the latest happenings in geopolitics. Be sure to tune in every Friday for the latest episodes and as I mentioned in our intro, like and subscribe to our podcast both on Spotify and on YouTube

Dhruva Jaishankar: As always, thank you for joining us on the Around the World podcast and we'll see you next week.

Rachel Rizzo: See you.

Episode 2 : Ukraine Talks, Japan's New Prime Minister, U.S.-Australia Ties

October 24, 2025— Hosts Dhruva Jaishankar and Rachel Rizzo delve into the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, highlighting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's recent visit to D.C. and Putin-Trump talks. They also cover the recent election of Japan's first female Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, and U.S.-Australia relations with focuses on rare earth agreements and the AUKUS pact.

Available on Spotify and Apple Podcasts

Transcript

Sneak Peek

Rachel Rizzo: I think this created a situation where Putin really blinked and got on the phone with Trump and there was some discussion about the two sides potentially meeting in Budapest, but that meeting has been scrapped for now.

Dhruva Jaishankar: So you've had now the past few years a series of short-lived prime ministers, each of whom who has been quite unpopular. But the opposition parties are even more so and don't have enough the numbers to actually form a credible opposition.

Rachel Rizzo: Keeping it in the Indo-Pacific, but moving it south a little bit, we had a major visit this week with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. So were you watching that? How did that go? What was the point of this visit? I didn't even know he was in town. I don't think a lot of people did.

Welcome to Around The World

Dhruva Jaishankar: Hi, I'm Dhruva Jaishankar.

Rachel Rizzo: And I'm Rachel Rizzo. Welcome to the Around the World podcast. Your essential guide to understanding the forces shaping our world today. Every week, we cut through the noise to bring you clear, insightful analysis of the most important developments in geopolitics.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Whether it's security challenges across Europe, shifting power dynamics in Asia, domestic updates from the United States, or regional updates from Latin America or the Middle East, we make sure you're up to speed on what's happening and more importantly, why it matters.

Rachel Rizzo: Thanks for tuning in.

Dhruva Jaishankar: It's been an interesting week as usual. We've had a burglary in the Louvre, which is something out of Ocean's Eleven. Iceland recorded its first mosquitoes, a sign of global warming. RIP D'Angelo,

Rachel Rizzo: Super newsy stuff. Lots of lots going on.

Zelensky Comes to Town

Dhruva Jaishankar: Yes, yes, yes, so a lot of important things, but let's bring it to something that's on a lot of people's minds is a war still going on in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Zelensky was in Washington, D.C. he met with President Trump. How did that go?

Rachel Rizzo: So there's a couple things here. First, the meeting was not as a much of a public disaster as the meeting between Zelensky and Trump in November. Remember that one took place in the Oval Office. It was super public. It devolved really quickly. This one was behind closed doors and reports indicate that it got just as contentious, especially because Zelensky is hoping to get more support from the United States on the ongoing war. And again, this meeting devolved into like map throwing and some arguments between both negotiating sides and Zelensky walked away with nothing yet again. So not great, but not as bad as the meeting went back in February. So at least that's a positive development. Pretty low bar, unfortunately, yeah.

Dhruva Jaishankar: That's a very low bar.

Rachel Rizzo: Pretty low bar unfortunately, yeah.

Dhruva Jaishankar: What do you think is animating Trump's... What are the major points of disagreement here?

Rachel Rizzo: OK, so there are a few things here. The first is that you talk to a lot of people who focus on Europe, who focus on Ukraine, and they'll say that Trump is always flip-flopping on his position with Ukraine. And I actually don't think that's true. The one consistent thing about Trump is that I don't think he really cares whether or not Ukraine specifically wins this war. What he cares about is that his team is able to get a win for his administration. Now this meeting with Zelensky came on the heels of a couple things. The first was, as we talked about last week, this ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, which is tenuous at best. But it also came on the heels of a two hour phone conversation with Putin. Now a couple weeks ago, there were discussions being floated about potentially having the United States send long range Tomahawk missiles to the Ukrainians and letting them use them. And I think this created a situation where Putin really blinked and got on the phone with Trump and there was some discussion about the two sides potentially meeting in Budapest, but that meeting has been scrapped for now. So there's just a lot of, this is a quick moving conflict. It's still going on. Russia continues to bombard Ukraine and it still shows an unseriousness or an unwillingness to really come to the table.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Yeah, so they spoke, Putin and Trump spoke about a potential meeting in Budapest. It was announced Trump kind of announced it. There's some significance to Budapest being a European Union country, Hungary being a European Union country, a NATO member. But Viktor Orban, the leader of Hungary, has been more sympathetic than most European and EU and NATO countries and NATO leaders to Russia, right? So there was a self-significance of where they met. But why did that meeting get scrapped then?

Rachel Rizzo: So it seems as though the meeting got scrapped because there were not really going to be any deliverables in this meeting because there is still too much daylight between Ukraine and Russia in terms of what both sides are looking to get out of a potential ceasefire negotiation and where the two sides actually are. So I think Donald Trump and his team wanted to avoid an Alaska 2.0. Now, Alaska was, course, where Putin and Trump met a couple of months ago. And it was this, you know, he literally rolled out the red carpet for Putin thinking that they were going to walk away with some sort of negotiation or some sort of settlement and instead walked away with nothing. And I think you can blame that on a few things. The first is just, as I said before, Putin doesn't want to negotiate. This war gets to the heart of like Russian identity for him and his legacy and the legacy of like Russian imperialism. The second is that I think Steve Witkoff and his negotiating team kind of oversold to Trump what the Russians were willing to come to the table with in August. And so instead ahead of this potential meeting, Trump and his team sent Marco Rubio to talk to Lavrov, and I think out of that meeting it became very clear that there really is nowhere to go as of now. So what happens now? The US sanctioned two major Russian oil companies today, Luke Oil and Rosneft. So that's good. It still isn't sending Tomahawk missiles, although I don't think that's totally off the table. There's a big question about whether Europe will be able to use these frozen Russian assets that they're holding in a Belgian bank to provide loans to Ukraine for its recovery. So lots of big questions and stuff that we will cover in, I'm sure, the coming weeks and months because unfortunately I don't think this war is going anywhere anytime soon.

Dhruva Jaishankar: And those sanctions that were rolled out are going to have effects on the global oil markets. In fact, it's something being watched in India as well because there will be some potential spillover effects for global oil prices and for India as well.

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah, and I think there's been obviously frustration in India because as we remember, when this full-scale invasion happened in 2022, there was a push by the West to have India purchase Russian oil to keep global oil markets stable as other entities like the EU weaned themselves off of Russian oil. So it puts India in a difficult spot. But again, I'm sure that there will be plenty to talk about on this front for the time to come.

Japan Elects a New PM

Rachel Rizzo: And then I wanted to turn to you to look even further east than Ukraine and Russia, kind of focusing on the Indo-Pacific a little bit this week.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Yep.

Rachel Rizzo: And there's two major developments. The first is that there is a new Japanese prime minister. Tell us about her.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Mm-hmm. Yep. Yeah, so the Japan elected this week its first female prime minister, Sanae Takaichi. This is actually her third bid for a leadership position for leadership of her party, the LDP, and consequently the prime ministership. This made her the first female and a lot of the commentary is focused on a few things. One, her being the first female. Two, her being very conservative and three, some of the personal quirks in her personality. But just a little bit of background on this. So the Liberal Democratic Party, the LDP, has pretty much had a lock on politics in Japan for the past 70 years or so. And what ended up happening while it consistently formed the government, it was basically a series of factions within the LDP that kind of jostled for power. And they had a sort of informal system of rotating the leadership amongst these factions. And so if you had enough of the factions aligned on something, they would help appoint the new leader. This kind of got disrupted. There were a couple of sort of interregnums in between short periods when non-LDP coalitions formed but they were short lived. Then over the past two decades, two figures kind of came to dominate Japanese politics. First Junichiro Koizumi who was prime minister for quite a while, very popular, and then Shinzo Abe, who really sort of dominated Japanese politics. And the sort of faction system kind of broke down a little bit. Now, with Abe's assassination, he was assassinated shortly after he stepped down as prime minister. There were number of scandals that the LDP was involved in, including one involving the universal church and funding around this, which made the LDP really unpopular. And so you've had now the past few years a series of short-lived prime ministers, each of whom who has been quite unpopular. But the opposition parties are even more so, and don't have enough the numbers to actually form a credible opposition. I would just put Takaichi in as part of a series of likely short-lived prime ministers in this very unusual political terrain where the LDP is deeply unpopular and yet the opposition is too weak to actually provide a credible alternative.

Rachel Rizzo: Is it sort of like in the US where in 2016 we had Hillary Clinton running against Donald Trump and a lot of people voted for Donald Trump not because they liked him but because they really didn't like Hillary Clinton and there weren't any other options? Could you kind of compare it to that a little bit or is it just a different political system?

Dhruva Jaishankar: You know, I think it's a parliamentary system, so it's very difficult. I think the US politics won't offer an easy analogy where you have, again, a dominant incumbent party that is so unpopular and yet, again, no credible, serious opposition that's likely to form a true alternative for the long run. So I'm not sure there's a good US analogy to it, but I'm sure you can find something in British or some other politics. Actually, maybe British politics today offers something of a parallel.

Rachel Rizzo: Well, yeah. It could and so I also kind of road tested this comparison earlier with one of my friends who works on Asia and works on Japan and it seems like maybe you could sort of compare this new prime minister. She's sort of like maybe a Japanese Meloni where Meloni is like right wing and some might say far right. She is like very traditional in her values but is also kind of liberal internationalist in her approach. Like she's supported Ukraine, supports NATO and the EU. So, you know, there's this comparison that people draw between like what a prime minister does at home and how right-wing they might be and how that translates to what kind of policies they stand for on the world stage. So I wonder if that's maybe something to watch for.

Dhruva Jaishankar: So we'll see about that. I mean, at least Meloni is quite popular now at home in the sense that she's got enough of a mandate now that she's going to be a figure and she's not in a precarious position. We still have to see about Takaichi now. A couple of things on that front, though. One is she'll have an early opportunity to meet Trump. Trump is going to Japan as part of his Asian swing. He's going to Seoul. He'll likely meet Xi Jinping there, amongst others, for the APEC summit. So he is doing an early visit to Japan. And so an early test of the new prime minister will be this visit on the diplomatic side. There will be security and trade issues on the agenda when they meet. And so she will be tested quite early and her ultimately her management of the economy and this of tricky diplomacy will be this early test. Another thing to watch out for just on the domestic side, her biggest challenger is Shinjirō Koizumi who is the son of Junichiro Koizumi, who I mentioned earlier, who was very popular prime minister. And he is sort of like the first, might be the first millennial leader of Japan. He's kind of been groomed for this. He's made two or three bids now for the leadership position and fallen just short, but he's taking over the portfolio of defense minister.

Rachel Rizzo: Oh interesting.

Dhruva Jaishankar: And that's a sort of really interesting you know, particularly at this time where there's this emphasis on defense spending, moving him to a serious portfolio. And he was again, the most likely credible challenger to Takaichi. That's a space to watch.

Rachel Rizzo: And then of course, another issue to watch is Japan-Korea relations.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Yeah, so that'll be another test of Takaichi. So interesting thing has happened. Korea recently elected a new president, Lee Jae-Myung. He's a really interesting character. He came from a very humble background, union leader. He's with the Democratic Party of Korea. And this has historically been a faction that has been more skeptical of the US alliance, but also more skeptical of relations with Japan. And these issues, these historical issues between Japan and Korea have often bubbled up to the surface under this dispensation. In theory, a sort of center-left leader in Korea, a right wing leader in Japan might be the kind of combination that would lead to a resurfacing of some of these issues that many had thought had been put to bed. again, there's something the Biden administration did a lot. They held a trilateral summit in Camp David- US, Japan, Korea. And that was really an attempt of putting to bed a lot of the historical distrust between Japan and Korea. So one of the things to look forward to now you have new governments in the United States, Japan, Korea. Different parties in all these places, not in Japan, but different parties in the other two.

Rachel Rizzo: Mm-hmm.

Dhruva Jaishankar: How much can this hold? The early signs are actually quite positive for the Japan-Korea relationship. One of the first places the new Korean President Lee visited was Japan. He then came to the United States, had a relatively good meeting with President Trump. One thing, however, while they may be able to manage those historical differences, other factors have now come into play. Tariffs, of course, being one, but also the arrest of these Korean workers at a factory in the United States, which is still dominating headlines in Korea.

Rachel Rizzo: Oh yeah.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Anyway, all of this means that we're in a very interesting place to watch as Trump goes to Japan first and then goes on to Korea.

A Bit More South of the Indo-Pacific

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah, and obviously with this administration, the Indo-Pacific and the states within it are both a geographical focus, but also a bilateral focus for them as well. you know, keeping it in the Indo-Pacific, but moving it south a little bit, we had a major visit this week with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. So were you watching that? How did that go? What was the point of this visit? I didn't even know he was in town. I don't think a lot of people did.

Dhruva Jaishankar: I did because I actually got stuck behind his motorcade at one point.

Rachel Rizzo: Okay, fair.

Dhruva Jaishankar: So I was late to something because I saw this Australian motorcade go by. So I did actually know he was in town. It also got overshadowed by another thing, which is Trump went after Australia's ambassador to the United States, former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd. And we had a slightly Zelensky-like moment in the White House where he said, I know you said bad things about me. And it led to a little bit of tension that's been all over the Australian press. But the two important reasons, one is there's a feeling in Australia that the United States under Trump in the second term is really not paying enough attention to them. There's a little bit of so they're hoping to get some of that back. But two things to look out for. One, there was an agreement on rare earths, which is one thing that really animates this White House. They care for some reasonable, you know, well, good reason in some ways because of the China concerns. They care about rare earths. So they’ve reached an agreement. Australia has more active rare earth exploration projects than any other country. So a lot of potential.

Rachel Rizzo: Mm-hmm.

Dhruva Jaishankar: So they've agreed to a smallish, significant but still small capital infusion to invest, but more importantly, a sort of price management mechanism to counter Chinese dumping because essentially what China has been doing is flooding the market at certain times to undercut and essentially make it financially not viable to invest in rare earths. So that's one of the things that there is now some coordination mechanism for managing prices for rare earths. And the other significant thing about this visit was Trump essentially seemed to greenlight AUKUS. And this is an agreement, a US-Australia-UK agreement that was signed under the Biden administration. It has survived changes in government in both Australia and the UK. And it's a somewhat controversial project, mostly for the expense, to do two things. One, help Australia acquire nuclear-powered submarines. This is called Pillar 1 of AUKUS.

Rachel Rizzo: Yep.

Dhruva Jaishankar: And this would give their submarines reach into the Northern Pacific in a way that they can't currently achieve that. And the second aspect is to collaborate in certain critical technologies and that's already starting to reap some dividends. So that's essentially the green light on AUKUS, which the Trump administration had been reviewing and this rare earth agreements were two of the highlights of this visit.

Rachel Rizzo: Ok, and I think probably at some point it would be worth it for us to do a deep dive on AUKUS because this was such a huge part of the Biden administration. I remember when this was announced a few years ago, how upset the French were.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Yes.

Rachel Rizzo: They were so upset, actually, that the French ambassador to the US canceled a major party at his house, which is like everyone looks forward to this and everyone was so upset about it. And so, I think for our listeners and people who tune in who don't know the background on AUKUS, we'll do a deep dive in that sometime soon. obviously lots of stuff to keep watching here. We also have a major high level EU summit happening in Brussels next Tuesday. So we'll be watching that really closely and can give you some updates next Friday on what comes out of that meeting. Our listeners will keep you up to date on the latest happenings on this in geopolitics. Be sure to tune in every Friday, especially next Friday for the latest episodes.

Dhruva Jaishankar: As always, thank you for joining us on the Around the World podcast and we'll see you next week.

Episode 1 : Gaza Hostage Deal, U.S.-China Trade War, French PM

October 17, 2025 — Hosts Dhruva Jaishankar and Rachel Rizzo discuss the recent ceasefire agreement in the Middle East, the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, and political turmoil in France in the premiere episode of Around the World with Dhruva Jaishankar and Rachel Rizzo.

Available on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Transcript

Sneak Peek

Rachel Rizzo: I think that there's two sides here. There's this question of Hamas disarming, whether it's willing to do that or not, big questions about the political future of Gaza, rival factions within the Gaza Strip, and also how Israel decides to respond to this and how the United States decides to respond as well.

Welcome to Around the World

Dhruva Jaishankar: Hi, I'm Dhruva Jaishankar.

Rachel Rizzo: And I'm Rachel Rizzo. Welcome to the Around the World podcast. Your essential guide to understanding the forces shaping our world today. Every week, we cut through the noise to bring you clear, insightful analysis of the most important developments in geopolitics.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Whether it's security challenges across Europe, shifting power dynamics in Asia, domestic updates from the United States, or regional updates from Latin America or the Middle East, we make sure you're up to speed on what's happening and more importantly, why it matters.

Rachel Rizzo: Thanks for tuning in.

Recent Developments in the Middle East

Dhruva Jaishankar: The big news story over the past seven days or so has been President Trump's whirlwind trip to the Middle East and a landmark announcement which he made.

Rachel Rizzo: Yep.

Dhruva Jaishankar: This is the first step towards what seems to be something much more broad, a sort more durable solution to what has been a two-year conflict. Maybe to start us off by talking about what exactly we saw happen between Hamas and Israel, a really quite significant development over the past few days.

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah, I mean, it's hugely significant, but I think we have to give it some time to see actually how it develops. Now, of course, Trump is already taking a huge victory lap saying things like this is transformative and it's a new dawn for the Middle East. But, you know, he's not the first president to say this about the region. And so I think we have to just take that in stride. But you're totally right. It's been a big week. There was a ceasefire agreement brokered by Trump in Egypt. He's declared that the war is over. And on Monday, the final 20 living Israeli hostages that were held by Hamas since October 7th, 2023 were released and returned to Israeli medical staff. And in exchange for the hostages, Israel released about 1,700 Palestinian detainees held without charge and about 250 Palestinian prisoners. So big developments here, but I think there's still — It's still tenuous and we're not exactly sure where it's gonna go.

Dhruva Jaishankar: And that's actually interesting. On the one hand, it was really significant just seeing the footage and the videos of families being reunited on both sides. This has obviously been a really terrible few years for them. But yet, I think there are still a lot of questions that remain, including about still the continuing exchange of those hostages. There's still, I think, a few who haven't been identified and some bodies that are difficult to reclaim.

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah, and this is where we're already starting to see the potential fractures in this very delicate ceasefire. Hamas was supposed to return all living and deceased hostages within the first 72 hours, but they've handed over only about a third of the remaining 28 deceased hostages at this time. And basically Hamas is saying that it needs special equipment to access the remaining remains because they're buried under rubble. And you can already see the Israelis starting to say that this is Hamas trying to sidestep the ceasefire agreement. At the same time, what we've also seen is Israel restricting humanitarian aid entering Gaza. So there's only about 300 aid trucks entering instead of the agreed upon 600 and the Rafah border with Egypt remains closed due to the dispute over deceased hostages.

Dhruva Jaishankar: So, still, I mean, already a few challenges. And it seems like in Gaza, there's been some violence not involving Israel that has erupted between different factions. The Israeli military preparations also seem to be continuing. Is that correct?

Rachel Rizzo: Yeah, it is. And I think this is something to watch really closely. I mean, part of this 20-point plan that Donald Trump and his team, Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff came up with, one of the points of that was that Hamas has to de-arm itself. And now I think the big question is, is it willing to do that? Who else would be the governing body in Gaza if not Hamas?

If they did de-arm, who would they de-arm to? I mean, where are all these weapons going to go? And what is really the driving force behind Hamas making that decision? And so I think there's a lot of questions that are left on the table. President Trump has also said that Israeli forces could resume fighting in Gaza, “soon as he says the word”, if Hamas doesn't uphold the ceasefire.

So I think that there's two sides here. There's this question of Hamas disarming, whether it's willing to do that or not, big questions about the political future of Gaza, rival factions within the Gaza Strip, and also how Israel decides to respond to this and how the United States decides to respond as well. So I think that we can have delicate celebrations at the moment, but understand that this is just the start of a very long road ahead.

Dhruva Jaishankar: And what are we to make of the meeting, I think it was in Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt, where Netanyahu wasn't there. Trump presided over a number of leaders, European leaders - Macron, Keir Starmer came for that. A number of Arab leaders came for that. And what are we to make of that ceremony as well?

Rachel Rizzo: Well, I think, you know, we're on the heels of a major meeting in September, which was the UN General Assembly. And we have seen multiple European countries recognize Palestinian statehood. This has been a huge, not just geopolitical issue, but it has stepped into domestic politics around Europe as well. So we see a lot of support from leaders like Macron, like Keir Starmer, like Friedrich Merz in Germany, who really want to be a part of this potential ceasefire and potential future peace for this region. Now, again, I think that Donald Trump really sees himself as the center of these discussions. And in many ways, I think he is. I think that he and his team deserve credit here. But again, as I've said before, this is only the framework. This is only the start. And it's going to take agreements and it's going to take effort on many sides, not just Israel and Gaza, but the U.S. and European leaders as well to really bring this forward so lots to watch and we'll keep an eye on it over certainly the next few weeks and the next few months.

U.S.-China Trade War: Economic Implications

But another, you know, shifting the topic a little bit - that's sort of what's going on in the Middle East and it's taking up a lot of the new space. But we're here based in Washington and a big conversation for us has also been on the economic front. All these geopolitical developments in the Middle East are happening at the same time as this U.S.-China trade war seems to be resuming. So maybe we can shift gears a little bit and extrapolate sort of what those geopolitical tensions have meant for this U.S.-China trade war and what you're watching on that front economically.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Yeah, the two conflicts obviously that have continued to preoccupy a lot of people's time and attention, which is the Middle East war between Israel Gaza. But that has now spread across the region in various ways, affecting Israeli strikes on Iran and Yemen, and has had wider implications. And then, of course, the Ukraine war that continues. But I think the big geostrategic trend to be watching, which doesn't get the front pages, obviously, is really what's taking place between the United States and China.

The two largest economies, largest militaries, or most potent militaries in some ways around the world, that are jostling for power internationally. And yet, what's somewhat ironic is that the bilateral trade volume between the United States and China is huge. It's a trillion dollars, massive bilateral trade. It is also very unbalanced trade. And this is important because this is something that Trump has really made an issue, which is the United States has a large trade deficit, goods trade deficit with China.

Because of the competition between them, growing competition between them, both are trying to, in their own ways, decouple from each other and de-risk in critical areas where they realize that they have vulnerabilities on each other. China has certain vulnerabilities. They need certain items from the United States. They need market access in certain areas. And then similarly, the United States has some critical vulnerabilities. And just to give a sense of how complex these interdependencies are, the integrated supply chains: You buy an electronic item in the United States or anywhere in the world today, or advanced machinery of any kind, and it's quite likely, just to give examples, that this has been precision manufactured in or assembled in a place like Taiwan or Korea, which in turn is based on equipment made in Germany or the Netherlands or Japan, which in turn relies on raw materials that are processed in China or Ukraine or the United States, but which is then mined in Chile or Congo or Japan or China. And all of this relies on software that's sometimes designed by U.S. headquartered firms or encoded by coders in India. So this is a very complex integrated global supply chain that results in certain items that are critically needed, whether it's an average consumer or whether it's a sort of advanced military or otherwise sensitive equipment. So this is, I think, the backdrop to the decoupling we're starting to see.

Rachel Rizzo: Well, just to follow up on that, I think it was Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week who was doing an interview. Obviously, it's the IMF-World Bank annual meetings here in D.C. this week, and he was doing an interview. And he said this economic competition is not China versus the United States or the United States versus China. This is China against the world. Is that accurate or like how are you viewing comments like that that are coming out of the Trump administration?

Dhruva Jaishankar: Well, you know, Bessent’s comment represent a slight change in tenor over what we've seen over the past few months, which is in some ways the United States was trying to take on the world. But I'm just going try and contextualize this a little bit. In some ways, what he says is right, which is China today has the manufacturing power, which is disproportionate to its share of the global economy. It is in many ways the factory of the world. So many supply chains run at least partially through China today that it's very hard for anyone, not just the United States, to disentangle themselves. With the exception of some component manufacturers in East Asia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and raw material exporters, almost every other major economy has a massive trade deficit with China. So in that sense, he's not off. Let me just take this back. When the Trump administration came in earlier this year, they decided to use a pretty blunt instrument, tariffs, to try and renegotiate economic terms of engagement with much of the world.

At one point in time, tariffs on China exceeded 100%. Now, China did something quite clever in some ways, which is they decided to cut off supplies for rare earths, or threatened to cut off supplies. That led to a reconsideration within Trump's economic team, where they realized that certain critical items that they were really operating, they had a few weeks of supply, and in certain really crucial areas. They realized there was this really key vulnerability that China was exploiting and using as leverage. There were then talks in the spring and summer between U.S and Chinese delegations at the cabinet level in Geneva, in London, in Stockholm, extending into the summer. And the tariffs came down as part of these negotiations, the tariffs came down, U.S tariffs on China, to 30 % average. The United States also resumed advanced semiconductor exports to China, which was something that was quite controversial, even amongst many Republicans in the United States.

In September, there were a round of talks in Madrid, and what appears to have happened is the two sides agreed to a kind of ceasefire until Trump and Xi met in person, and they were expected to meet in Seoul on the sidelines of the APEC summit that's coming up soon. And the two sides appeared to believe that they had an understanding on a few critical areas of contention, on rare earth exports from China, on advanced chips from the United States, on the sale of TikTok in the United States, and on tariffs. China was hoping for this pause until Xi and Trump met. And then a couple of things happened quickly, which was one, the U.S. Commerce Department expanded its entity list, which is a list of countries that require license for export companies. Then the other thing is they separately, they were looking at increasing and applying this fee on Chinese ships docking at U.S. ports. China believes that this was kind of a violation of this understanding that they had brokered and has now tried to exert leverage on rare earths and pretty sweeping potential restrictions. So Beijing believes it has the upper hand here and this is, I think why tensions have kind of escalated in the past week or so.

Rachel Rizzo: So just to bring us back to basics for a little bit for those who might be listening that don't follow the economic relationship between China and the United States as closely as you've been following it. These debates around tariffs, around the Chinese export of rare earths, decreasing those exports. I mean, does this all just come down to who has the ability to make the most powerful semiconductors, which then go into making the most powerful technologies, which in turn feed into this global so-called competition between the United States and China. Like, is that really what we're talking about here? Is it that easy or is it a little bit more complicated than that?

Dhruva Jaishankar: So I think semiconductors are the most visible and immediate area of contention. It's something that is really so integral to your smartphone, laptop, television. It's integral to military applications. Any advanced military equipment has chips in them. It's integral to AI and growth and competition in the AI sector. I think that that's one that just speaks to a lot of people it is so. But it is actually representative of a deeper, more underlying issue, which is to what extent and what ways can the United States continue to depend on Chinese manufacturing and supply chain - it's completely down the supply chain in certain areas, there are these vulnerabilities. And similarly, China is asking the same question, where are we vulnerable to the United States? And so the challenge is that de-risking and, de-risking is, there's a slight nuance here, de-risking would involve identifying certain key areas and focusing on them, whereas decoupling is a sort of more ambitious widespread not trading with each other in various ways. And I think now there's a realization that de-risking is more probable. Both sides are going to be much more focused rather than trying to completely decouple from each other. But doing it isn't sometimes much harder because it requires very high capital costs that somebody has to front. The United States is sitting on a lot of rare earths, but processing it requires environmental clearances. It requires buyers to commit to buying beforehand. It requires very high capital costs and is therefore very risky for an investor, a private investor. So it's much easier said than done and that's what I think everyone's finding.

Rachel Rizzo: Before we move on to the next topic, I mean, it's interesting to have watched this debate develop over the last 10 or so years in Washington, you know? The big pivot to Asia was a huge part of the Obama administration and every administration since then. Trump 1, Biden, Trump 2, has really focused on China and the Indo-Pacific and has culminated in this real geo-economic competition between the two sides. And Europe is also at the center of it because they rely so much on Chinese exports. They rely on exporting to China as part of their markets. Germany's car industry, for example, is a huge part of this. So I think it's something that we'll obviously be watching closely, talking about more in depth in the coming months. It's an issue that is at the center stage of U.S politics and European politics as well.

French Political Turmoil

Dhruva Jaishankar: And actually, just to wrap up - a quick question for you on European politics. We've seen some turmoil in France, particularly, where you had a prime minister resign and then get reappointed, it appears, and then barely survive and no confidence vote. What's going on there?

Rachel Rizzo: Okay, so French politics are messy, so we can just like lay that down as the baseline. The French government has fallen a couple times in the last year or so, and this all stems from this decision back in summer of 2024, where Macron decided to dissolve parliament. And this was after a really poor showing of his party in the European parliamentary election. So he thought he wanted to dissolve Parliament and give voters a chance to make their voices heard, potentially put the far right into Parliament and see if they could govern. This has really backfired because it's just created an era of instability for Macron and for the government. So Sébastien Lecornu, who was the prime minister, his government fell. He was reappointed as prime minister by President Macron just days after resigning. He unveiled yet another cabinet on October 12th. This is France's fifth prime minister in under two years. I mean, it's pretty crazy. But I think what we need to watch closely going forward is does this government hold, does the cabinet hold? They're supposed to be presenting a 2026 draft budget next week.

Let's see if that goes forward. And let's see how the fractured parliament split between three ideological blocks holds over the coming weeks and months. It’s probably worth like a full episode. It's probably worth a full deep dive sometime in the next couple of weeks. But something worth watching and we'll be taking a close look at it in the next few days to see what happens with this new government and whether it holds or not.

Dhruva Jaishankar: Thanks again, Rachel. It was great talking to you and thanks for joining us on Around the World this week.

Rachel Rizzo: Absolutely. Thanks, Dhruva, and thanks to all of our listeners. See you next week.