Job Losses and Gains in India’s Energy Transition

By: Caroline Arkalji

As India transitions to green energy to meet its commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2070, various workforce challenges are emerging across different sectors. The country heavily relies on carbon-intensive industries, with fossil fuel sales contributing 17.1 % of national and subnational government tax revenues. However, as the country shifts to renewable energy, firms like Coal India Limited — the world’s largest government-owned coal producer — may need to cut approximately 73,800 jobs by 2050.

Most of the envisioned job losses will affect low-skilled workers in poor socioeconomic conditions who will require substantial training and reskilling to benefit from the 3.7 million new green jobs expected in India by 2025, with the potential for as many as 35 million jobs by 2047. For a just transition that ensures that new job opportunities are accessible to all workers, policymakers must prioritize capacity building, upskilling, reskilling, and provide technological guidance.

This will not be easy. For one thing, the coal sector employs many workers from marginalized classes and castes, many of whom lack education or arable land that makes upskilling particularly challenging. Coal-dependent states — Odisha, Jharkhand, and Chhattisgarh — will have to improve higher education enrollment and catch up with other states. Jharkhand has 46%, and Odisha has 44%, compared to the national average of 58%. In 2015, the Indian government launched the Skill Council for Green Jobs (SCGJ), promoting skills for green business industries and integrating environmental awareness into job training programs across all skilling initiatives. In Odisha, the government has implemented the “Skilled in Odisha” program, collaborating with private sector and industry leaders to implement skilling projects at the grassroots level.

Indias coal-producing states also lag in basic infrastructure, such as communication systems and roads. Concerning the state government's per capita expenditure in 2022-23 on transport and communication, Odisha had an expenditure of $47 per person per year, which falls notably above the national rate of $26. Meanwhile, Jharkhand has spent below $16 per person annually on transport and communications. In terms of state highway development, both Jharkhand and Odisha fall significantly below the national average. Odisha has only 99 kilometers of state highways per million people while Jharkhand has an even lower figure of just 37 kilometers.

A further problem for India’s leading coal-producing states is that they will be disproportionately affected by declining revenues from fossil fuels. Jharkhand relies heavily on coal-generated revenue, accounting for 16% of the state’s revenue, while Chhattisgarh’s dependence is around 8%. In contrast, despite its high coal production, Odisha has a lower reliance on coal, contributing only 3% to its revenue. As states derive part of their revenues from fossil fuel sales, they will face budgetary constraints amid a rapid transition.

To support India's energy transition, early economic diversification away from fossil fuel-dependent sectors could provide alternative livelihoods for workers. However, for this shift to succeed, immediate steps must be taken to allocate fiscal resources and prioritize public spending, ensuring a just and inclusive climate transition. This requires mobilizing additional revenue, strengthening government capabilities to create innovative financial tools, and developing an expenditure framework focusing on high-impact investments in emerging sectors.

Increased public investment in essential economic and social services will be vital for fostering inclusivity and sustainability as India undergoes a monumental energy transition. Despite the challenges ahead, India's leadership in climate action — merging innovation with adaptability — can inspire other developing nations facing similar climate issues.

Caroline Arkalji is a Research Assistant for the Global Economics and Development and Energy and Climate Policy programs at ORF America.