By: Sunaina Kumar, Soumya Bhowmick, Anasua Basu Ray Chaudhury, Arpan Tulsyan, and Manish Vaidya
The following excerpt is from Chapter 6 — Education, Skills, Labor, and Immigration of ORF Global Quarterly: Navigating Megatrends for 2026.
Education, skills, labor, and immigration have historically functioned as critical drivers of economic growth, productivity, social development, and innovation. These domains are closely interlinked and their evolution and prospects should therefore be assessed in relation to one another.
Looking ahead to 2026, geopolitical fragmentation, economic uncertainty, climate crisis, and technological disruption, which have generated global instability, are expected to have long-term consequences for the future of these critical domains. Escalating crises and tectonic shifts threaten progress in human capital development worldwide. Advancements in technology, the advent of artificial intelligence (AI), the climate crisis, and the energy transition are reshaping labor markets, creating both redundancies and opportunities. Meanwhile, the rise of anti-immigration populism, stricter compliance frameworks, alongside a growing demand for highly-skilled migrants is collectively transforming international mobility patterns.
The stakes are higher for the Global South, with its large youth populations and significant gaps in education, skills, and employment. Data from the World Economic Forum (2025) shows that rates of youth not in employment, education, or training (NEET) range between 25 to 27 percent in low and middle-income economies compared to 10 to 17 percent in high and upper-middle-income economies. Countries of the Global South are source economies for outward migration and depend on labor mobility for remittances, skills flows, household welfare, and public finances.
In the midst of rising uncertainty, Global South countries are pursuing their own pathways, seeking to transform risks into opportunities. For example, in education, countries are rapidly embracing AI to leapfrog traditional barriers in access, quality, and personalization. Similarly, they are investing in green skills; from solar panel installation to conservation management, so that workforces can seize new opportunities in the green transition. Countries such as India, Vietnam, and Bangladesh have begun converting demographic potential into productivity gains through export diversification and industrial upgrading. They are harnessing multilateral forums to voice their concerns, like the G20 Labour and Employment Minster’ Declaration 2025, under the South African presidency, which calls for stronger labor mobility partnerships between surplus and ageing economies to address demographic asymmetries.
Faced with greater challenges, the Global South is turning to newer models of South–South collaboration and regional partnerships, which are increasingly recognized as strategic mechanisms to jointly address challenges. These models tend to be financially prudent, contextually relevant and culturally adapted, and crucially, they help diversify options rather than relying predominantly on Western approaches.
1. DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY AND AI WILL EXPAND ACCESS TO EDUCATION
By 2033, the Global South is projected to account for 1.2 billion youths aged 15–24, yet only 480 million are projected to be enrolled in school, and about 420 million to secure employment, leaving nearly 300 million young people facing severely constrained opportunities. Equipping them with quality education and relevant skills is crucial. Driven by the rapid expansion of internet access and smartphones, the rise of digital public infrastructure, and post-pandemic shifts in learning, countries across the Global South are utilizing technology to address education gaps.
Reports released in 2025 by UNESCO and Microsoft highlight sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and South Asia as key regions where AI-driven learning platforms are being expanded to address fundamental gaps in teacher capacity, instructional materials, and student engagement. Joint declarations by forums such as BRICS and ASEAN identify teacher training and ethical use of AI as strategic goals. Given the persistent digital divides across regions, ensuring that digital and AI solutions in education systems remain locally adapted and community-rooted will be crucial.
Four megatrends will define education, skills, labor, and immigration in 2026 — this is just one. Discover the other three in ORF Global Quarterly: Navigating Megatrends for 2026.