ORF Global Quarterly

Building a Resilient Trade Architecture in the Global South

Building a Resilient Trade Architecture in the Global South

By Jhanvi Tripathi and Samriddhi Vij

Countries in the Global South are the fastest growing consumer markets with their growing and increasingly aspirational populations. Fulfilling this potential requires addressing deep connectivity gaps that have implications for the speed and cost of doing business.

Global South in the Crossfire: Strategic Competition and Managed Interdependence

Global South in the Crossfire: Strategic Competition and Managed Interdependence

By Soumya Bhowmick and Arya Roy Bardhan

For countries across Asia, Africa, and Latin America, the challenge is no longer simply how to engage Washington or Beijing diplomatically, but how to preserve developmental autonomy in an environment where great-power competition is restructuring markets, supply chains, and industrial choices.

Russia-China Defence and Security Partnership: Intensification Amid Constraints

Russia-China Defence and Security Partnership: Intensification Amid Constraints

By Aleksei Zakharov

China is carefully balancing its position on the war in Ukraine, offering Russia targeted support while avoiding direct military involvement in the form of supplying lethal weapons or deploying troops. Similarly, Moscow would like to avoid getting entangled in China’s conflicting relations with India, Japan, Vietnam, or the United States. This cautious approach on both sides imposes a clear ceiling on their engagement and leaves limited prospects for an alliance-like partnership in the future.

Latin America: Navigating the Turbulence

Latin America: Navigating the Turbulence

By Vasabjit Banerjee

China’s economic and military presence in Latin America is expanding, prompting the United States to pursue countermeasures. Other extra-regional actors, ranging from the European Union to countries such as India, are simultaneously deepening their engagement with the region. The United States could strategically leverage these relationships to reinforce its own position.

Building in the Rupture: The World’s New Alignments

Building in the Rupture: The World’s New Alignments

By Clemens Chay

The reality is that “America First” under the Trump administration has functioned as a structural force rather than empty rhetoric — one that has prompted state actors to exercise agency by prioritizing their own national interests.

New Arenas of Great-Power Competition

New Arenas of Great-Power Competition

By Rachel Rizzo

As the Arctic region, ocean floor, and space emerge as the new theaters of great-power competition, how major powers navigate this moment, and whether multilateral institutions created in a different era can adapt to the new one, will be the defining questions in the years ahead.

Education, Skills, Labor, and Immigration: Turning Risks Into Opportunities

Education, Skills, Labor, and Immigration: Turning Risks Into Opportunities

By Sunaina Kumar, Soumya Bhowmick, Anasua Basu Ray Chaudhury, Arpan Tulsyan, and Manish Vaidya

By 2033, the Global South is projected to account for 1.2 billion youths aged 15–24, yet only 480 million are projected to be enrolled in school, and about 420 million to secure employment, leaving nearly 300 million young people facing severely constrained opportunities. Equipping them with quality education and relevant skills is crucial.

Agriculture, Health, and Urbanization: Convergence of Transitions

Agriculture, Health, and Urbanization: Convergence of Transitions

By Nilanjan Ghosh, Ramanath Jha, Oommen C. Kurian, Soma Sarkar, and Shoba Suri

A distinctive feature of the year 2026 is the convergence of several transitions: food systems are being reshaped by regenerative practices and digital technologies, health governance is undergoing reform within a post-pandemic framework, and cities are simultaneously sites of vulnerability and centers of innovation.

Climate and Energy Transitions: Hanging in the Balance

Climate and Energy Transitions: Hanging in the Balance

By Mannat Jaspal, Parul Bakshi, Cauvery Ganapathy, Lydia Powell, and Piyush Verma

As we enter 2026, climate and energy policies are being shaped not only by decarbonization imperatives. Geopolitical upheaval, technological competition, economic transformation, supply chain resilience, and national security concerns are exerting influence over the future of energy and climate policies worldwide.

Technology: Brave New World

Technology: Brave New World

By Anirban Sarma with Sauradeep Bag, Anulekha Nandi, Prateek Tripathi, and Siddharth Yadav

The year 2025 saw several disruptive and emerging technologies advance from rhetoric, and experimentation, into ongoing expansion, to an accelerated phase of growth. At the same time, there emerged a rising sense of urgency about the need for digital sovereignty. Taken together, AI, quantum computing, digital currencies, and nanotechnology represent a frontier where technology, power, and the political economy increasingly converge.

Geoeconomics and Trade: A Year of Rebalancing

Geoeconomics and Trade: A Year of Rebalancing

By Anit Mukherjee with Dhruba Purkayastha, Arya Roy Bardhan, Srijan Shukla, and Jhanvi Tripathi

The “reciprocal tariffs” announced by the United States in early April disrupted the global trade flows and unsettled the multilateral system built over several decades. As a result, global players are adjusting to this new reality and altering their behavior beyond tariff measures to safeguard their own interests.

Geopolitics, Defense, and Security: Turbulence Ahead

Geopolitics, Defense, and Security: Turbulence Ahead

By Dhruva Jaishankar with Pratnashree Basu, Kartik Bommakanti, Lindsey Ford, and Kabir Taneja

The re-election of Donald Trump in the United States (US) has introduced a wave of turbulence to the international system, reversing certain pre-existing trends while accelerating others. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine continues to contribute to Europe’s rearmament. Israel’s strikes in Iran, Syria, Qatar, and Yemen reflect broader upheaval spreading across the Middle East and beyond. China’s competition with the US persists, extending across multiple domains and regions. Amid this backdrop, at least five major geopolitical megatrends are likely to unfold.