Beyond ASML: Japan-South Korea-UAE-India Cooperation on Semiconductor Sovereignty

Beyond ASML: Japan-South Korea-UAE-India Cooperation on Semiconductor Sovereignty

By Siddharth Yadav and Khush Advani

As AI reshapes economies, militaries, and societies, the nations that control the hardware pipeline will shape the rules of the emerging order. At present, that pipeline runs through a single bottleneck in Veldhoven, Netherlands. For middle powers, the choice is to either accept permanent dependency on a supply chain governed by the strategic priorities of others, or invest collectively in an alternative.

Beyond Oil: How the Hormuz Closure Affects Defense Industries, Data Centers, Critical Minerals, and More

Beyond Oil: How the Hormuz Closure Affects Defense Industries, Data Centers, Critical Minerals, and More

By Cauvery Ganapathy

Disruptions triggered by the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have interrupted global efforts at industrial reshoring, data center-led digitization, electrification, and the reinforcement of defense production lines, while also posing risks to global food security.

An Unstructured U.S. Critical Mineral Strategy Takes Shape

An Unstructured U.S. Critical Mineral Strategy Takes Shape

By Jeffrey D. Bean

If the U.S. government can facilitate practical, targeted bilateral engagements for mining and processing under the banner of Pax Silica and FORGE, these could support derisking semiconductor, AI, and critical mineral supply chains provided key Global South actors are engaged effectively and equitably.

The UAE, Bahrain, and the Security of the Strait of Hormuz

The UAE, Bahrain, and the Security of the Strait of Hormuz

By Mahdi Ghuloom and Cauvery Ganapathy

What is noteworthy is that the UAE and Bahrain, two countries which have consistently advocated for a diplomatic resolution to the dispute, have now been forced to pivot towards seeking a more proactive approach aimed at securing the Strait under a UN-supported coalition.

The Iran War's Impact on Food, Fertilizers, and Water

The Iran War's Impact on Food, Fertilizers, and Water

By Arnold Musungu, Leigh Mante, and Reem Sagahyroon

The ensuing crisis in the Middle East is intensifying food and water insecurity, climate systems, and agricultural production. The Climate and Energy program from ORF Middle East provides concise analysis of these impacts and reflections on potential pathways forward. 

AI Deployment By Cities Carries Benefits, But Needs Safeguards

AI Deployment By Cities Carries Benefits, But Needs Safeguards

By Manish Thakre

As local governments increasingly rely on private vendors, building institutional capacity is essential to ensure AI technologies serve the public interest. Decisions about what AI systems to buy, and under what conditions, determine to what extent these systems benefit citizens or produce harmful outcomes.

India’s Navy Is Already Supporting Regional Security Around the Strait of Hormuz

India’s Navy Is Already Supporting Regional Security Around the Strait of Hormuz

By Ammar Nainar

Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz resulting from the conflict between the United States and Israel, on the one hand, and Iran on the other, threaten to create another global energy crisis. India has many reasons to proactively take such action: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz risks exacerbating the country’s energy shortages and food insecurity.

What Venezuela Could Learn from Iraq's Oil Export Challenges

What Venezuela Could Learn from Iraq's Oil Export Challenges

By Cauvery Ganapathy

In Venezuela’s case, as was the case with Iraq, it is the systematic domestic mismanagement of its resources coupled with inequities of political agency that diminished the value of its natural wealth. American engagement in Venezuela’s oil sector may soon demonstrate, like it did in the United States’ Iraqi sojourn, how deep-rooted these structural fractures are.

The Iran War's Implications for the Gulf: Three Expert Perspectives

The Iran War's Implications for the Gulf: Three Expert Perspectives

By Samriddhi Vij, Kabir Taneja, and Akram Zaoui

Ten days into the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, the conflict has entered a more entrenched phase. With air and maritime connectivity significantly disrupted and President Trump maintaining uncompromising rhetoric, Gulf leaderships find themselves navigating a precarious balance between containment and active self-defense. ORF Middle East experts offer their concise analysis on the latest developments.

Impact, Development, and Deployment: A Grounded View of India’s AI Impact Summit

Impact, Development, and Deployment: A Grounded View of India’s AI Impact Summit

By Jeffrey D. Bean

The AI Impact Summit underscored India’s commitment to be seen as a leader for technology deployment to the Global South. In this way, India is attempting to serve as a bridge between the leading technology manufacturing countries and the societies where applied technology may have the biggest impact on quality of life, in areas like healthcare, education, and agriculture

Assessing Strategic Intent in a Widening Middle East Conflict

Assessing Strategic Intent in a Widening Middle East Conflict

By Dhruva Jaishankar

With ongoing strikes in the Middle East, the strategic intentions of Israel, the United States, Iran, and the Gulf Arab states are worth examining, for they will shape the intensity and scope of the war — as well as the long-term repercussions regardless of the outcome. 

Closed Networks, Open Risks: The Politics of Encrypted Messaging Apps

Closed Networks, Open Risks: The Politics of Encrypted Messaging Apps

By Priyasha Chakravarti

Political parties can use EMAs to more easily campaign and effectively target voters, plan party operations, and rally their supporters, free of outside interference. At the same time, unverified information and hate speech can circulate largely undetected, particularly in countries with limited oversight and regulatory capacity.

After Supreme Court Ruling, Trump Tariffs Continue with More Constraints

After Supreme Court Ruling, Trump Tariffs Continue with More Constraints

By Marta Bengoa

Using outdated balance-of-payments provisions designed for fixed exchange rates makes no sense under current monetary arrangements. Trump can continue imposing tariffs within constitutional boundaries, but the constraints now bind more tightly. Whether this leads to a more sensible trade policy or simply shifts chaos to different legal authorities remains to be seen.

India and Brazil: Translating Multilateral Cooperation into Robust Bilateral Ties

India and Brazil: Translating Multilateral Cooperation into Robust Bilateral Ties

By Anit Mukherjee

Lula’s state visit to India will underscore the important role of Brazil and India as leaders of the Global South helping countries navigate geopolitical uncertainty, rebalanced global trade and supply chains, rapid diffusion of transformational technologies, and accelerating impact of a changing climate. With the United States hosting the G20 this year, a strong relationship between the two countries will be critical to consolidate the achievements and keep the priorities of the Global South on the agenda.

Greenland’s Mineral Promise Is Limited by Geological Impediments

Greenland’s Mineral Promise Is Limited by Geological Impediments

By Sarah Salah

There is no question that Greenland holds substantial mineral wealth. Most mining exploration sites in Greenland are located along the coast, making port infrastructure essential for transporting heavy equipment and extracted materials. Yet declining sea levels threaten the long-term viability of deep-water ports built today, potentially rendering them too shallow within decades.

India’s Evolving Approach to Finance in its Trade Agreements

India’s Evolving Approach to Finance in its Trade Agreements

By Udaibir Das

When finance is discussed in the context of India’s trade agreements, the debate polarizes: either India is genuinely opening, or it remains stuck in defensive regulation. But neither captures what is happening: India is selectively binding regulatory discretion, exporting specific platforms, and keeping control over balance-sheet risks.