By: Nilanjan Ghosh, Ramanath Jha, Oommen C. Kurian, Soma Sarkar, and Shoba Suri
The following excerpt is from Chapter 5 — Agriculture, Health, and Urbanization of ORF Global Quarterly: Navigating Megatrends for 2026.
The pursuit of the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030 underscores the growing interlinkages of food, health, and urban systems that are increasingly recognized as a defining megatrend for 2026. These systems can be conceptualized as an intricately connected living infrastructure for life and livelihoods in an era of polycrisis. For the Global South, the complexity is heightened by the interaction of climate change, rapid urbanization, evolving consumption patterns, and emerging health concerns that raise critical questions regarding the sustainability of the business-as-usual developmental pathways. A distinctive feature of the year 2026 is the convergence of several transitions: food systems are being reshaped by regenerative practices and digital technologies, health governance is undergoing reform within a post-pandemic framework, and cities are simultaneously sites of vulnerability and centers of innovation.
1. TRANSITION FROM EXTRACTION TO REGENERATION
Agriculture in 2026 is expected to be reshaped by the ongoing shift from an extractive, yield-maximizing paradigm to a regenerative, resilience-focused approach that seeks to address the present-day challenges of climate change, soil health degradation, and rising input costs. This trend is reflected in the G20 Agriculture Ministers' Declarations of Brazil (2024) and South Africa (2025) which emphasize increasing food and nutrition security, climate resilience, and empowerment of smallholders. Impacts of climate change, characterized by rising temperatures, erratic precipitation, and extreme weather events, are now recognized as critical stressors affecting agricultural productivity, food prices, and rural livelihoods across tropical regions, particularly in Africa and South Asia, where smallholders dominate production. The situation has been exacerbated by decades of unsustainable soil and water management practices.
Climate-smart and precision agriculture have emerged as response mechanisms to these stressors and are expected to occupy a more prominent role in 2026. Internet of Things (IoT) sensors, drones, and AI-driven analytics are being deployed to optimize input use and adapt to microclimatic variation. The global precision farming market is projected to exceed USD 21 billion by 2032, signalling the rapid diffusion of digital technologies into agriculture. This technological transformation, however, may widen disparities between capital-intensive and smallholder systems unless accompanied by inclusive access to finance and digital infrastructure.
The rise of regenerative agriculture is associated with practices such as cover cropping, reduced tillage, and carbon-sequestering soil management. Consumer demand for low-carbon food systems, corporate commitments to net-zero supply chains, and policy incentives are driving this shift.
Dietary transitions constitute another prominent dimension. With urbanization and rising incomes, protein-rich and plant-based diets; ranging from labgrown meat to insect-based proteins, are reshaping markets. These trends, though initially driven by the Global North, are becoming prominent in middle-income economies, contributing to food systems diversification. The overarching megatrend is climate-resilient diversification, moving from crop monocultures towards polycultures of practices, technologies, and diets.
Three megatrends will define agriculture, health, and urbanization in 2026 — this is just one. Discover the other two in ORF Global Quarterly: Navigating Megatrends for 2026.