On November 14, ORF America hosted a roundtable with the Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI), the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA), and the Embassy of India in Brazil in advance of the meeting of the leaders of India, Brazil and South Africa during the G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro. The conversation identified common ground among the IBSA troika and recommended action plans reflecting the voice of the Global South in four areas:

(i) Agreeing on the pathway for the reform of global Institutions to achieve SDGs;
(ii) Strengthening the Global Alliance against Hunger and Poverty and Mission LiFE;
(iii) Accelerating energy transition with social justice; and
(iv) Promoting Inclusive and equitable digital transformation.

There was wide consensus that IBSA can play an important role to amplify voices of the Global South and focus on the development agenda both within G20 and in other multilateral groupings. The consecutive presidencies of India and Brazil followed by South Africa in 2025 is an opportune moment to delineate common positions on issues such as addressing the debt crisis, financing energy transition, addressing poverty and inequality, and accelerate the progress towards the SDGs. The roundtable participants also emphasized that IBSA is well positioned to guide the post-SDG development agenda and restructure the COP climate negotiation process, especially with Brazil hosting the COP30 in Bélem in 2025. 

Just over two decades after its formation, there is an opportunity to revive IBSA as a force for peace and development in an increasingly turbulent world. However, this would require increased political commitment among the leaders of the three countries than has been the case over the past decade. This needs to be backed by a commitment to invest resources and create concrete programs for collaboration among the three countries, something that has been an impediment to IBSA's influence until now.

Speakers:

• Marianna Albuquerque, Senior Fellow, CEBRI

• Pamla Gopaul, Senior Research Fellow, African Union Development Agency

  (AUDA-NEPAD)

• Feliciano Guimarães, Senior Fellow, CEBRI

• Dhruva Jaishankar, Executive Director, ORF America

• Amitabh Kant, G20 Sherpa, India

• Matsosha Mnguni, G20 Coordinator, Director General of International Relations and

  Cooperation (DIRCO), Government of South Africa

• Anit Mukherjee, Senior Fellow, ORF America

• Antonio Patriota, Ambassador of Brazil to the United Kingdom

• Suresh Reddy, Ambassador of India to Brazil

• Fabio Veras Soares, Director of International Studies, Instituto de Pesquisa

  Economia Aplicada (IPEA)

On October 16, ORF America hosted a private lunch with Nihal Chauhan, Non-Resident Fellow at ORF America and the Chief Executive Officer of Indo-Pacific Advisory, a Singapore-based strategic consultancy firm. The conversation explored business and commercial perspectives on India’s engagement with Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia.

As India attempts to strengthen strategic and economic ties with countries in the Indo-Pacific, a number of trends are emerging — the significance of industrial policy in the aftermath of global financial crises and the Covid-19 pandemic, increasing alignment between government priorities and business interests, and re-alignments of supply chains. Participants discussed the potential implications of U.S.-China competition and the upcoming U.S. presidential election on India’s relations with the Indo-Pacific.

The lunch was attended by U.S. government officials from the White House and Congress, along with representatives from the diplomatic corps, business groups, think tanks, and strategic consultancy firms.

Speakers:

• Nihal Chauhan, Non-Resident Fellow, ORF America

• Moderator: Dhruva Jaishankar, Executive Director, ORF America

During the 2024 edition of India Day @ UNGA, Dhruva Jaishankar, Executive Director, ORF America, moderated a session titled “To the Lighthouse? Promises and Pathways for the Rising South."  The discussion explored how countries in the Global South are helping to craft a collective South-led vision for sustainable development. 

Speakers:

• Aude Darnal, Research Analyst and Project Manager, Stimson Center 

• Udaibir Saran Das, Distinguished Fellow, ORF America

• Gargee Ghosh, President, Global Policy & Advocacy, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

• Daniel Seymour, Director, Strategic Partnerships, UN Women

• Moderator: Dhruva Jaishankar, Executive Director, ORF America

On September 16, ORF America hosted a conversation with Smriti Zubin Irani, a notable Indian public figure who served as a Cabinet Minister from 2014 to 2024. During this time, she oversaw various portfolios including Women and Child Development; Education; Minority Affairs; Textiles; and Information and Broadcasting. She was the first woman to hold office as Cabinet Minister for Education and as Minister of Textiles.

The conversation revolved around the changing nature of politics in India, focusing on the role of women in India’s economy and society. How are more women integral to India’s political discourse today? How are women participating in India’s competitive democracy after the unanimous passage of the Women’s Reservation Bill in 2023, which required that the Lok Sabha reserve at least 33 percent of seats for women?

Many women working in informal sectors are not recognized for their economic contributions. The 15.5 million women-owned businesses in India generate significant employment, but their impact is often undercounted. Irani, however, mentioned that there is a growing recognition of women's importance in the workforce. Introducing financial inclusion initiatives, such as opening bank accounts for women, has led to significant economic benefits, with women generating 12% higher revenue than men.

Yet challenges remain. Access to technology needs to be more affordable and accessible, especially given language barriers in India, which sometimes make access to innovative payment methods and other technological tools challenging. While the number of women pursuing STEM degrees and PhDs has increased by 100 percent, there needs to be a greater focus on helping them monetize their education, as well as increasing women's leadership roles in academia and beyond.

Speaker:

• Smriti Irani, former Indian Cabinet Minister for Education; Women & Child Development; Information and Broadcasting; Textiles; and Minority Affairs

• Moderator: Dhruva Jaishankar, Executive Director, ORF America

ORF America, in collaboration with the City Government of Belém, launched the Rede Belém Aberta on the sidelines of the G20 Sustainable Finance Working Group meeting held in the city. The event was attended by the Mayor of Belém, Mr. Edmilson Rodriguez, senior members of his cabinet, and other policymakers, researchers, and practitioners from the government, academia, civil society, and the private sector.

Rede Belém Aberta, or Open Belém Network, is a city-wide digital public infrastructure (DPI) based on the philosophy of an open, protocol-based network that is designed to be inclusive and support innovation in the digital economy. The project is an outcome of a year-long collaborative effort between technology pioneers in Brazil and India, especially Jambu Tecnologia and the Foundation for Interoperability in the Digital Economy (FIDE), facilitated by ORF America and supported by the local government. In the lead up to COP30, which will be held in Belém in 2025, the Rede Belém Aberta will focus on human resource needs such as skilling and employment, access to clean energy, delivery of digital public services and creating the digital backbone for nature-based solutions and the bioeconomy.

With Brazil and India supporting the DPI approach within the G20 and through bilateral engagements, there is an opportunity to shape the future course of digital transformation to one that reflects the priorities of the Global South, tailored to national, regional, and local needs such as job creation, upgrading of skills, clean energy and nature-based solutions, that in turn will support sustainable economic development over the long run. The event featured the following speakers:

Speakers

• Antônio Abelém, Professor, Department of Computer Science, Federal University of Para, Belém

• João Arroyo, Secretary of Planning and Management, City Government of Belém

• Julia Gorayeb, Secretary of Tourism, City Government of Belém

• Anit Mukherjee, Senior Fellow, ORF America

• Marcelo Sá, Founder and President, Jambu Tecnologia, Belém

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil | April 19, 2024

ORF America and ORF, in collaboration with the City Hall of Rio de Janeiro, organized a one-day conference on Digital Inclusion: From Ideas to Action. The event brought together policy makers, researchers and practitioners from the government, academia, research institutions, civil society and the private sector to reflect on the challenges and outline strategies to bridge the inclusion gap in the Global South.

The discussions brought out clearly the need to focus on ‘meaningful inclusion’ in the context of the ongoing digital transformation. Even with the rapid diffusion of digital technologies such as cellphone networks and digital payments, gaps in connectivity, financial inclusion and digital skills still exist, both within countries and across much of the Global South. These gaps are strongly correlated with poverty, remoteness and social exclusion, and therefore need to be urgently addressed as a development challenge more broadly.

The speakers emphasized the importance of solutions to promote digital inclusion emerging from the Global South through effective exchange of knowledge and practice. This is especially critical in the context of new technologies such as artificial intelligence. Countries of the Global South are often passive consumers and not proactive participants in innovating and regulating these emerging technologies. With Brazil and India taking the lead within G20, there is an opportunity to shape the future course of digital transformation to one that reflects the priorities and addresses the needs of the Global South, and accelerates progress towards achieving the SDGs.  

Speakers:

• Ramiro Albreu, Principal Researcher, South American Network of Applied Economics (Rede Sur), Argentina

• Juliana Moura Bouno, Manager, Public Policy and Government Affairs, Google, Brazil

• Fabricio de Paula, Founder, AmazoniaLab, Brazil

• Denise Direito, Researcher, Institute of Applied Economic Research, Brazil

• Paula Guedes, Researcher, DataPrivacy.br, Brazil

• Luisa Cruz Lobato, Adjunct Professor and Coordinator of the Digital Humanities Laboratory, PUC-Rio

• Rajeesh Menon, Head of Strategy, Foundation for Interoperability in the Digital Economy (FIDE), India

• Cristina Kiomi Mori, Vice Minister, Ministry of Management and Innovation in Public Services, Federal Government of Brazil

• Lucas Padilha, Head of International Relations and Cooperation, Rio de Janeiro City Hall

• Lorrayne Porciuncula, Co-Founder and Executive Director, Datasphere Initiative, Brazil/Europe

• Raphaël Pouyé, Lecturer, SciencePo, France

Background

As part of the third Raisina Dialogue DC, the Observer Research Foundation America (ORF America) hosted a panel discussion on “Competing on Connectivity: A Strategy for Infrastructure Investment”. The discussion highlighted U.S., Japan, and Indian perspectives on development finance initiatives, overseas infrastructure including connectivity projects, and the scope for multilateral coordination between like-minded partners.

Speakers

• Tomoyuki Hirata: Chief Representative (Washington, D.C.), Japan Bank for International Cooperation

• Naz El-Khatib: Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy, U.S. International Development Finance Corporation

• Tanvi Madan: Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Brookings Institution

• Dhruva Jaishankar (moderator): Executive Director, ORF America

Event Summary

The panelists described the mandates of the Japan Bank of International Cooperation (JBIC) and the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), and provided sectoral and geographic examples of their overseas investments. Tanvi Madan of the Brookings Institution described India’s evolving approach to development finance and unpacked initiatives like the Export-Import Bank of India’s (EXIM Bank) concessional Lines of Credit. The speakers also underlined the importance of international collaboration and coordination between like-minded partners like the United States, Japan, India, Australia, South Korea, Israel, Germany, France, etc. The discussion was attended by representatives from the U.S. government, embassies, private sector, think tanks, academia, and media.

Despite recovering from the lows of the pandemic years, the global economy continues to face significant structural challenges emanating from climate change, geoeconomic fragmentation, and stretched public finances. The resulting debt crisis is particularly becoming a critical challenge for policymakers in the Global South and needs urgent attention. As the fifth largest economy, India’s macroeconomic performance is critical for global stability and therefore of considerable interest for policymakers, analysts and investors around the world.  

To understand India’s current macro-fiscal outlook, ORF America’s Global Economics and Development program hosted Dr. Poonam Gupta, Director General of the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), India’s premier economic research institution, to present the Mid-term Review of the Indian Economy, an independent assessment of India’s economic performance at the half-way mark during the current fiscal year (2023-24). 

An analysis of the data on the national accounts, public finance, balance of payments and nearly 50 high frequency economic indicators suggests that the Indian economy has been doing relatively well compared with other emerging market and developing economies. It is projected to grow at 6.5 percent this year with an inflation rate of 6 percent, a current account deficit of 1.5 percent of GDP, and a comfortable level of foreign reserves of nearly $600 billion. The overall assessment is one of macro-fiscal stability underpinned by an enabling policy regime that should minimize the downside risks even as the global economy faces significant uncertainty in the coming years. 

One area of concern is India’s high debt-to-GDP ratio, which now stands at nearly 90 percent. This is possibly due to the lingering effects of the fiscal stimulus provided during the global pandemic. While there are valid arguments to bring it down, Dr. Gupta highlighted that the composition of India’s public debt mitigates the risk of fiscal instability. It is held mostly domestically with only 5 percent in foreign currency, the portfolio consists largely of long-term fixed rate government securities issued by the Reserve Bank of India, and the demand for bonds remains high. India’s public debt, therefore, is qualitatively different from other countries facing a debt crisis brought about by predatory lending, short term maturity and exposure to foreign exchange and interest rate risks. 

Following the presentation, there was a lively discussion with the attendees which included economists, policy experts, donor organizations and the private sector. It highlighted other challenges such as the underperforming manufacturing sector, the slow growth in revenue share in GDP, the potential global headwinds for the Indian economy including high oil prices, long-term elevated interest rates especially in the US, and climate related disruption that can affect agricultural output and consequently, food security. The overall assessment was that India’s macro-fiscal performance is a beacon of stability in a turbulent world economy but policymakers need to remain vigilant to stem any threats from the uncertain global scenario.  

Speakers: 

• Dr. Poonam Gupta, Director General, National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER)

• Moderator: Anit Mukherje, Senior Fellow in Global Economics & Development, ORF America

Background

On September 5, ORF America hosted a roundtable on the G20 Legacy, featuring policy and non-policy stakeholders from foundations, think tanks, embassies, media, and private sector representatives in New Delhi. The roundtable showcased ORF America’s research and convening relating to India’s G20 agenda including on multilateral development bank reforms, climate finance, and digital public infrastructure in the Global South. The discussion also focused on the significance of India hosting the G20 summit and concluded with remarks from H.E. Kenneth da Nobrega, the Brazil Ambassador to India, who spoke on Brazil’s upcoming G20 presidency and their priorities.

Summary

In a more contested geopolitical environment, how can developing countries achieve progress on sustainable development goals and shape the future of global governance? India’s G20 climate priorities include energy efficiency, hydrogen, biofuels, and clean energy supply chains. Countries including India are viewing clean energy transitions through the lens of economic competitiveness. Participants discussed the international implications of India’s carbon market, costs of diversifying solar supply chains, and international coordination in “green subsidies”. The G20 could be a vital forum for North-South cooperation on exchanging information and minimizing tensions relating to “green subsidies”.

Another G20 priority is digital infrastructure. Participants deliberated on how digital infrastructure can have “spillover effects” for any developing country to achieve its development goals. India sees the importance of digital infrastructure for better targeting and implementation of welfare schemes; this was especially useful during the covid-19 pandemic. In future, digital infrastructure must be “designed” to work for a larger population scale and how India can enable this adoption with other developing countries based on the principles of openness and interoperability. One potential partner in this realm would be Brazil and they will hold the G20 presidency for 2023-24. Brazil expects to portray a similar “level of ambition”—like India—in crafting a G20 agenda that elevates issues of importance to developing countries. To that end, some potential agenda items include development finance, climate change, women empowerment, and reform of multilateral trade laws.

The pandemic has uncovered grave vulnerabilities in production networks of essential commodities. There is consensus that nations have to focus on foreign trade policy with the specific mandate of addressing vulnerabilities, managing disruptions, and reducing concentration. India has a unique chance to leverage these developments to attract global value chains, especially by exploring partnerships with strategically and geopolitically aligned nations such as the US and the Quad. This will require India to streamline its regulations and design a policy environment that attracts and supports multinationals wishing to establish India as a base, for serving India’s market and the Asian and global market at large.

On January 21, 2022, the Observer Research Foundation, in collaboration with the Confederation of Indian Industry and ORF America hosted a closed-door virtual roundtable on India’s Foreign Trade Policy: imperatives for Indian Industry. The session brought together representatives from Indian industry to get a first hand account of barriers to India’s GVC aspirations. The purpose of the session was to explore the imperatives for global integration for the Indian industry and seek inputs on specific measures the Indian industry needs to take for better global integration.

The roundtable shed light on the regulatory changes necessary to aid India’s integration into GVCs. The most pressing issues industry highlighted included firstly the need for revising the rates of the Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products (RoDTEP) to rates similar to the old Merchandise Exports from India Scheme (MEIS). This was a common concern between both domestic industry as well as foreign companies manufacturing and exporting out of India. Secondly, a need was felt to revisit India’s Free Trade Agreements (FTA’s) to fix the inverted duty structures that put Indian manufacturers and exporters at a disadvantage. A third recurring concern was the need for Mutual Recognition Agreements (MRA’s) for Indian quality certifications and licenses which are equivalent to foreign markets or vice versa to decrease red tape. Fourthly, a need was expressed for stability in tariff rules to make them more predictable. It was noted that to help foreign companies relocate manufacturing to India, an ecosystem needs to be created in a phased manner through sustained government policy – through for example incentive schemes such as the PLIs. India needs to lay out a plan that will allow investment to bring in GVCs. This will help drive manufacturing in India.

The session was conducted as part of an ongoing project undertaken by ORF on India's GVC integration. In the coming months, there will be continued interaction with other stakeholders including academics and policy makers to map the policy choices available to India to better its GVC participation. ORF’s research will culminate in a report later in 2022.

Nikhila Natarajan of ORF America talks to Dr. Alexis Crow who leads the geopolitical investing practice at PwC, US.