Rio de Janeiro, Brazil | April 19, 2024

ORF America and ORF, in collaboration with the City Hall of Rio de Janeiro, organized a one-day conference on Digital Inclusion: From Ideas to Action. The event brought together policy makers, researchers and practitioners from the government, academia, research institutions, civil society and the private sector to reflect on the challenges and outline strategies to bridge the inclusion gap in the Global South.

The discussions brought out clearly the need to focus on ‘meaningful inclusion’ in the context of the ongoing digital transformation. Even with the rapid diffusion of digital technologies such as cellphone networks and digital payments, gaps in connectivity, financial inclusion and digital skills still exist, both within countries and across much of the Global South. These gaps are strongly correlated with poverty, remoteness and social exclusion, and therefore need to be urgently addressed as a development challenge more broadly.

The speakers emphasized the importance of solutions to promote digital inclusion emerging from the Global South through effective exchange of knowledge and practice. This is especially critical in the context of new technologies such as artificial intelligence. Countries of the Global South are often passive consumers and not pro-active participants in innovating and regulating these emerging technologies. With Brazil and India taking the lead within G20, there is an opportunity to shape the future course of digital transformation to one that reflects the priorities and addresses the needs of the Global South, and accelerates progress towards achieving the SDGs.  

Speakers:

• Cristina Kiomi Mori, Vice Minister, Ministry of Management and Innovation in Public Services, Federal Government of Brazil

• Lucas Padilha, Head of International Relations and Cooperation, Rio de Janeiro City Hall

• Luisa Cruz Lobato, Adjunct Professor and Coordinator of the Digital Humanities Laboratory, PUC-Rio

• Denise Direito, Researcher, Institute of Applied Economic Research, Brazil

• Ramiro Albreu, Principal Researcher, South American Network of Applied Economics (Rede Sur), Argentina

• Lorrayne Porciuncula, Co-Founder and Executive Director, Datasphere Initiative, Brazil/Europe

• Paula Guedes, Researcher, DataPrivacy.br, Brazil

• Juliana Moura Bouno, Manager, Public Policy and Government Affairs, Google, Brazil

• Raphaël Pouyé, Lecturer, SciencePo, France

• Rajeesh Menon, Head of Strategy, Foundation for Interoperability in the Digital Economy (FIDE), India

• Fabricio de Paula, Founder, AmazoniaLab, Brazil

Background

As part of the third Raisina Dialogue DC, the Observer Research Foundation America (ORF America) hosted a panel discussion on “Competing on Connectivity: A Strategy for Infrastructure Investment”. The discussion highlighted U.S., Japan, and Indian perspectives on development finance initiatives, overseas infrastructure including connectivity projects, and the scope for multilateral coordination between like-minded partners.

Speakers

• Tomoyuki Hirata: Chief Representative (Washington, D.C.), Japan Bank for International Cooperation

• Naz El-Khatib: Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy, U.S. International Development Finance Corporation

• Tanvi Madan: Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Brookings Institution

• Dhruva Jaishankar (moderator): Executive Director, ORF America

Event Summary

The panelists described the mandates of the Japan Bank of International Cooperation (JBIC) and the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), and provided sectoral and geographic examples of their overseas investments. Tanvi Madan of the Brookings Institution described India’s evolving approach to development finance and unpacked initiatives like the Export-Import Bank of India’s (EXIM Bank) concessional Lines of Credit. The speakers also underlined the importance of international collaboration and coordination between like-minded partners like the United States, Japan, India, Australia, South Korea, Israel, Germany, France, etc. The discussion was attended by representatives from the U.S. government, embassies, private sector, think tanks, academia, and media.

Despite recovering from the lows of the pandemic years, the global economy continues to face significant structural challenges emanating from climate change, geoeconomic fragmentation, and stretched public finances. The resulting debt crisis is particularly becoming a critical challenge for policymakers in the Global South and needs urgent attention. As the fifth largest economy, India’s macroeconomic performance is critical for global stability and therefore of considerable interest for policymakers, analysts and investors around the world.  

To understand India’s current macro-fiscal outlook, ORF America’s Global Economics and Development program hosted Dr. Poonam Gupta, Director General of the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), India’s premier economic research institution, to present the Mid-term Review of the Indian Economy, an independent assessment of India’s economic performance at the half-way mark during the current fiscal year (2023-24). 

An analysis of the data on the national accounts, public finance, balance of payments and nearly 50 high frequency economic indicators suggests that the Indian economy has been doing relatively well compared with other emerging market and developing economies. It is projected to grow at 6.5 percent this year with an inflation rate of 6 percent, a current account deficit of 1.5 percent of GDP, and a comfortable level of foreign reserves of nearly $600 billion. The overall assessment is one of macro-fiscal stability underpinned by an enabling policy regime that should minimize the downside risks even as the global economy faces significant uncertainty in the coming years. 

One area of concern is India’s high debt-to-GDP ratio, which now stands at nearly 90 percent. This is possibly due to the lingering effects of the fiscal stimulus provided during the global pandemic. While there are valid arguments to bring it down, Dr. Gupta highlighted that the composition of India’s public debt mitigates the risk of fiscal instability. It is held mostly domestically with only 5 percent in foreign currency, the portfolio consists largely of long-term fixed rate government securities issued by the Reserve Bank of India, and the demand for bonds remains high. India’s public debt, therefore, is qualitatively different from other countries facing a debt crisis brought about by predatory lending, short term maturity and exposure to foreign exchange and interest rate risks. 

Following the presentation, there was a lively discussion with the attendees which included economists, policy experts, donor organizations and the private sector. It highlighted other challenges such as the underperforming manufacturing sector, the slow growth in revenue share in GDP, the potential global headwinds for the Indian economy including high oil prices, long-term elevated interest rates especially in the US, and climate related disruption that can affect agricultural output and consequently, food security. The overall assessment was that India’s macro-fiscal performance is a beacon of stability in a turbulent world economy but policymakers need to remain vigilant to stem any threats from the uncertain global scenario.  

Speakers: 

• Dr. Poonam Gupta, Director General, National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER)

• Moderator: Anit Mukherje, Senior Fellow in Global Economics & Development, ORF America

Abu Dhabi | November 12th, 2023

Background

On November 12, 2023, ORF America and Observer Research Foundation (ORF), as the Secretariat of the Think20 (T20), in partnership with the Emirates Policy Centre, COP28 UAE, T28, hosted From G20 to COP28: Energy, Climate and Growth in Abu Dhabi, UAE. The conference brought together over 100 delegates from 63 countries to discuss solutions to issues expected to be at the forefront of deliberations at COP28, including energy access, climate and health, climate technology, and climate finance. It identified synergies between the Indian G20 Presidency’s outcomes on climate action and priorities at COP28 with the ultimate goal of formulating a more effective global response to the issues that impede the rapid and equitable progress of climate action.

Speakers included:

• Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, President and Founder, Emirates Policy Center, UAE

• H.E. Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, COP28 President-Designate, UAE Special Envoy for Climate Change, and Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, UAE

• H.E. Omar Sultan Al Olama, Minister of State for Artificial Intelligence, Digital Economy and Remote Work Applications, Director General of the Prime Minister's Office, UAE

• Kate Hampton, CEO, Children’s Investment Fund Foundation

• Samir Saran, Chair, T20 India Secretariat & Member, T20 India Core Group; President, Observer Research Foundation, India

• H.E. Sunjay Sudhir, Ambassador of India to UAE

Background

On September 5, ORF America hosted a roundtable on the G20 Legacy, featuring policy and non-policy stakeholders from foundations, think tanks, embassies, media, and private sector representatives in New Delhi. The roundtable showcased ORF America’s research and convening relating to India’s G20 agenda including on multilateral development bank reforms, climate finance, and digital public infrastructure in the Global South. The discussion also focused on the significance of India hosting the G20 summit and concluded with remarks from H.E. Kenneth da Nobrega, the Brazil Ambassador to India, who spoke on Brazil’s upcoming G20 presidency and their priorities.

Summary

In a more contested geopolitical environment, how can developing countries achieve progress on sustainable development goals and shape the future of global governance? India’s G20 climate priorities include energy efficiency, hydrogen, biofuels, and clean energy supply chains. Countries including India are viewing clean energy transitions through the lens of economic competitiveness. Participants discussed the international implications of India’s carbon market, costs of diversifying solar supply chains, and international coordination in “green subsidies”. The G20 could be a vital forum for North-South cooperation on exchanging information and minimizing tensions relating to “green subsidies”.

Another G20 priority is digital infrastructure. Participants deliberated on how digital infrastructure can have “spillover effects” for any developing country to achieve its development goals. India sees the importance of digital infrastructure for better targeting and implementation of welfare schemes; this was especially useful during the covid-19 pandemic. In future, digital infrastructure must be “designed” to work for a larger population scale and how India can enable this adoption with other developing countries based on the principles of openness and interoperability. One potential partner in this realm would be Brazil and they will hold the G20 presidency for 2023-24. Brazil expects to portray a similar “level of ambition”—like India—in crafting a G20 agenda that elevates issues of importance to developing countries. To that end, some potential agenda items include development finance, climate change, women empowerment, and reform of multilateral trade laws.

Washington DC | April 11, 2023

9:00-10:30 AM EDT

Background

On the occasion of the World Bank – IMF Spring Meetings held in Washington DC, ORF America convened a diverse group of senior policy makers and thought leaders from the government, private sector and civil society to discuss the future roadmap of the multilateral development banks. The discussion focused on the three defining issues facing the MDBs and the broader development finance community: digitalization, climate and the debt crisis.

Discussion

The event featured a keynote from Nandan Nilekani, a technology pioneer and visionary leader of India’s digital transformation, followed by a panel of experts with deep knowledge, experience and insights on the changing needs and roles of the global development finance institutions.

The participants highlighted that development finance institutions are falling behind in addressing the world’s most pressing challenges. The multiple crises affecting countries today – food, energy, climate, debt, as well as human development – require both increased resources and appropriate solutions. From the government’s perspective, prioritizing and balancing investments in health, education, urbanization and public infrastructure – both physical and digital – is becoming increasingly difficult especially with the donors’ emphasis on integrating climate action in the development agenda. Countries need to invest in digital infrastructure financed by both public and private sectors, which are often not harmonized and prioritized.  Apart from the capacity to manage these crises and transitions, there is a tradeoff between more resources from MDBs and the cost at which those resources are made available to developing countries. The participants and interventions from the audience emphasized that a greater focus on borrower needs – and not only donor priorities – has to guide the future MDB agenda.

This in-person program featured the following Speakers:

Welcome Remarks

• Dhruva Jaishankar, Executive Director ORF America

Keynote

• Nandan Nilekani, Co-founder of Infosys and Founding Chairperson of the Unique ID Authority of India (Aadhaar).

Panel Discussion

• Gabriel Yorio, Vice Minister of Finance and Public Credit, Government of Mexico

• Heba Shams, Vice President, Mastercard Policy Center for the Digital Economy

• Claudio Puty, Secretary of Planning and Administration, City of Belem, Brazil

• Scott Morris, Senior Fellow, Center for Global Development

• Anit Mukherjee, Senior Fellow, ORF America (Moderator)

Concluding Remarks 

• Udaibir Das, Distinguished Fellow, ORF America

The pandemic has uncovered grave vulnerabilities in production networks of essential commodities. There is consensus that nations have to focus on foreign trade policy with the specific mandate of addressing vulnerabilities, managing disruptions, and reducing concentration. India has a unique chance to leverage these developments to attract global value chains, especially by exploring partnerships with strategically and geopolitically aligned nations such as the US and the Quad. This will require India to streamline its regulations and design a policy environment that attracts and supports multinationals wishing to establish India as a base, for serving India’s market and the Asian and global market at large.

On January 21, 2022, the Observer Research Foundation, in collaboration with the Confederation of Indian Industry and ORF America hosted a closed-door virtual roundtable on India’s Foreign Trade Policy: imperatives for Indian Industry. The session brought together representatives from Indian industry to get a first hand account of barriers to India’s GVC aspirations. The purpose of the session was to explore the imperatives for global integration for the Indian industry and seek inputs on specific measures the Indian industry needs to take for better global integration.

The roundtable shed light on the regulatory changes necessary to aid India’s integration into GVCs. The most pressing issues industry highlighted included firstly the need for revising the rates of the Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products (RoDTEP) to rates similar to the old Merchandise Exports from India Scheme (MEIS). This was a common concern between both domestic industry as well as foreign companies manufacturing and exporting out of India. Secondly, a need was felt to revisit India’s Free Trade Agreements (FTA’s) to fix the inverted duty structures that put Indian manufacturers and exporters at a disadvantage. A third recurring concern was the need for Mutual Recognition Agreements (MRA’s) for Indian quality certifications and licenses which are equivalent to foreign markets or vice versa to decrease red tape. Fourthly, a need was expressed for stability in tariff rules to make them more predictable. It was noted that to help foreign companies relocate manufacturing to India, an ecosystem needs to be created in a phased manner through sustained government policy – through for example incentive schemes such as the PLIs. India needs to lay out a plan that will allow investment to bring in GVCs. This will help drive manufacturing in India.

The session was conducted as part of an ongoing project undertaken by ORF on India's GVC integration. In the coming months, there will be continued interaction with other stakeholders including academics and policy makers to map the policy choices available to India to better its GVC participation. ORF’s research will culminate in a report later in 2022.

Nikhila Natarajan of ORF America talks to Dr. Alexis Crow who leads the geopolitical investing practice at PwC, US.