Why are the Trump Tariffs Back?
By Marta Bengoa
Using outdated balance-of-payments provisions designed for fixed exchange rates makes no sense under current monetary arrangements. Trump can continue imposing tariffs within constitutional boundaries, but the constraints now bind more tightly. Whether this leads to a more sensible trade policy or simply shifts chaos to different legal authorities remains to be seen.
By Marta Bengoa
Speaking at Davos, Trump first ruled out using military force to acquire Greenland (after weeks of refusing to do so), then hours later announced what he called a "framework of a future deal" with NATO on Arctic security. Whether the framework leads to substantive Arctic security cooperation or remains another example of Trump declaring victory without achieving objectives, the damage to transatlantic economic relations has been done.
By Marta Bengoa
Rather than reviving American manufacturing and boosting employment, the data from Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs tell a story of job losses in manufacturing, stagnant productivity in that sector, higher inflation across the economy, and economic uncertainty on a scale not seen in decades.
By Dhruva Jaishankar
Trump’s April 2 announcement has already roiled financial markets, and the global economy will continue to be adversely affected both by the implementation of tariffs and by uncertainty as negotiations proceed. But while there will be no immediate winners, some parties appear relatively better off.
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Dive deeper with our experts’ analysis
By Dhruva Jaishankar
For countries around the world — whether allies, partners, or competitors of the United States — there are important and immediate questions of how much and to what degree they will accommodate, or hedge against, the United States’ new approach to the world.
Edited Volume
By Dhruva Jaishankar, Anit Mukherjee, Anirban Sarma, Mannat Jaspal, Nilanjan Ghosh, and Sunaina Kumar
Editors: Sharon Stirling and Eszter Karacsony
By Udaibir Das
In dynamic-system terms, the global economy has shifted from a high-integration equilibrium towards a more fragmented state, but the transition path is still in motion. For financial institutions, the challenge is calibrating marginal gain in resilience against the marginal erosion of competitive advantage.
By Marta Bengoa
The current situation demands acknowledgment that trade and monetary policy operate as interconnected systems, not isolated levers that can be pulled independently. A coherent approach would acknowledge that the United States’ economic strength derives from its integration into global supply chains, not isolation from them.
By Marta Bengoa
What began as April's "Liberation Day" announcement has evolved into a complex framework of negotiated settlements that, while avoiding the most severe outcomes initially threatened, creates new economic distortions across multiple trading relationships.
By Marta Bengoa
The most problematic aspect of the newly announced Trump tariffs may be the deliberate ambiguity around how countries might negotiate lower rates.
By Marta Bengoa
The fundamental contradiction in the Trump administration’s approach to trade policy remains unresolved: a strong economy cannot be built on weak economic thinking. Tariffs are not a strategy; they are a symptom of strategic absence.
