By: Dhruva Jaishankar with Pratnashree Basu, Kartik Bommakanti, Lindsey Ford, and Kabir Taneja
The following excerpt is from Chapter 1 — Geopolitics, Defense, and Security of ORF Global Quarterly: Navigating Megatrends for 2026.
The re-election of Donald Trump in the United States (US) has introduced a wave of turbulence to the international system, reversing certain pre-existing trends while accelerating others. Trump’s second term has been marked by the imposition of high tariffs on numerous trade partners, resulting in disruptions to global commercial flows. He has also overseen the US’s retrenchment from various multilateral organizations and arrangements. The US has simultaneously demonstrated a greater willingness to end major conflicts, such as those in Ukraine and Gaza, while exhibiting reduced restraint in its use of force, whether strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities or operations in Latin America. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine continues to contribute to Europe’s rearmament. Israel’s strikes in Iran, Syria, Qatar, and Yemen reflect broader upheaval spreading across the Middle East and beyond. China’s competition with the US persists, extending across multiple domains and regions. Amid this backdrop, at least five major geopolitical megatrends are likely to unfold.
1. CHINA-RUSSIA COOPERATION INTENSIFIES
China and Russia are expected to continue expanding the ‘no limits’ partnership they declared in 2022 through new technological and operational coordination, despite attempts by the Trump administration in the US to engage Beijing and Moscow separately. Following Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s visit to Russia in 2024, Russian reporting announced the two sides agreed to expand military-technical cooperation and joint military exercises. In August 2025, the two sides implemented this commitment with their annual joint sea exercise, which involved a wider geographical remit (including a joint patrol in the Western Pacific) and new capabilities (including an enhanced focus on sub-surface and anti-submarine warfare). Additionally, the two sides participated in their first trilateral exercise with Mongolia, which enabled the three parties to experiment with the use of unmanned systems and robotics for territorial enforcement. There is also evidence of Russia training Chinese paratroopers, suggesting an accelerated timeline for some of China’s military modernization goals.
The broader movement toward China’s accelerated military modernization was on display during its ‘Victory Day’ military parade in September 2025, when a wide variety of emerging military hardware—from unmanned and cyber systems to hypersonic capabilities—was showcased.4 Active Chinese preparations for a Taiwan-related amphibious invasion or blockade remain ongoing, as does China’s increased Coast Guard activity, “swarming” tactics, and use of maritime militia to assert presence near disputed maritime features in the South China Sea. Japan’s 2025 Defence White Paper explicitly highlights China’s use of grey-zone tactics via the China Coast Guard (CCG) and its cooperation with military and paramilitary organs.
The Sino-Russian partnership is likely to affect the two countries’ closest military partners, such as Pakistan, North Korea, Belarus, and possibly Iran. Pakistan’s launch of an Army Rocket Force Command in August 2025, along with other developments in its defense, acquisitions and doctrine indicates much closer military collaboration with China in the years ahead. The China-Russia relationship also has important implications for the war in Ukraine, with China’s foreign minister Wang Yi reportedly telling European diplomats in July that Beijing would not accept Russia losing the war in Ukraine and that such an outcome would allow the US to turn its full attention to China.
Five megatrends will define geopolitics, defense, and security in 2026 — this is just one. Discover the other four in ORF Global Quarterly: Navigating Megatrends for 2026.