By: Andre Nicola
Within weeks of each other, two of South America's most consequential elections delivered remarkably similar outcomes. Colombia and Peru each elected new presidents by razor-thin margins, and both represent a decisive rightward political turn. In Colombia, President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella campaigned on restoring economic growth through expanded oil and gas production. In Peru, Keiko Fujimori, daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori, promised to accelerate mining investment and reduce regulatory barriers. Environmental protection was not absent from either campaign although it was largely presented as an obstacle to development. These elections are not isolated events. They reflect a broader political shift unfolding across South America. Since taking office in 2023, Argentina’s Javier Milei has scaled back environmental protections in the name of economic progress and deregulation. Brazil now heads towards a pivotal election in October that could determine whether recent gains against deforestation endure or are reversed. These developments suggest the region is now entering a new political era in which environmental conservation is increasingly subordinated to economic growth, energy security, and geopolitical competition.
The stakes extend far beyond any one country’s borders. The Amazon rainforest, which spans nine countries but largely sits within Brazil, Colombia, and Peru, is one of the planet’s largest carbon sinks, stores enormous freshwater reserves, and is home to an estimated one-tenth of all known species. According to a study published by Nature, 17% of land has already been degraded due to human activity, such as logging, fires, and under-canopy extraction. The stakes are not limited to the rainforest either. In Argentina, glaciers in the Andes are now being opened to mining under Milei’s rollback of protections. In Argentina, as across the continent, many of the world’s most sensitive environmental areas also sit atop resources that have become indispensable to the global economy, including lithium, copper, gold, oil, and rare earth elements that are increasingly central to manufacturing. As governments compete for investment and seek faster economic growth, these ecosystems are coming under unprecedented pressure.
The sharpest change is taking place in Colombia, where, under President Gustavo Petro, the country made tremendous progress in environmental conservation. Petro positioned Colombia as a global leader on climate policy, opposed fossil fuel expansion, and advocated internationally for accelerated energy transition. His successor De la Espriella has promised a sharp reversal of these policies by expanding oil, gas, and mineral extraction, and reopening discussions around fracking. However his ambitions face meaningful institutional challenges as Colombian courts have repeatedly limited fracking projects and constitutional protections require consultation with indigenous communities prior to expanding land extraction. These protections will likely prevent a wholesale dismantling of Petro’s environmental policies but the new government’s direction is likely to still have consequences.
Peru’s shift has received less international attention but is no less consequential. Fujimori has long championed a mining-led development model and is expected to streamline permitting and encourage new investments. Peru contains the second largest share of the Amazon rainforest and is one of the world’s leading producers of copper, gold, and silver. The country continues to struggle with rampant illegal gold mining, which has already driven widespread deforestation and pollution across the Amazon. The president-elect’s ambitions to expand legal mining may generate economic growth, but it also risks adding further pressure to already strained ecosystems.
Argentina offers a preview of what this governing model will look like in practice. Since taking office in 2023, Milei has both made deep cuts to environmental agencies and aggressively deregulated extractive industries. His administration has labeled climate change as a “socialist lie” and thus has sought to weaken protections on areas such as glaciers while introducing incentives designed to attract investment into the mining sector. Argentina's April 2026 glacier law rollback illustrates the broader mechanism at work across the region.
Possibly the most consequential development lies ahead in Brazil. The country holds more than half of the Amazon rainforest and will likely shape the trajectory of global conservation efforts. Under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Amazon deforestation has reduced dramatically following years of steep increases under his predecessor President Jair Bolsonaro. Under the Bolsonaro government, the Amazon saw a steep increase of deforestation by 75.5% compared to the previous decade driven primarily by clearance for agriculture and cattle. In the upcoming election, Lula faces a challenge from Bolsonaro’s son, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, who has been vocal about his positions to continue his father’s policies favoring mining and agribusiness in Brazil. Thus, the election will determine whether many of the environmental commitments made under Lula’s government will be rolled back, with consequences far beyond South America.
Taken together, these developments reveal a broader regional shift. Across South America, governments are increasingly framing environmental regulation as a constraint on growth, investment, and national competitiveness. The message resonates at a moment when global demand for critical minerals is surging and governments are actively searching for new sources of lithium, copper, rare earths, and energy sources. South America's political direction over the next several years will be an early test of whether economic development can be reconciled with environmental stewardship throughout the region.
Andre Nicola is a Program Coordinator for Latin America at ORF America.