By Udaibir Das
Global financial institutions continue to frame the 2026 outlook for emerging markets through a familiar cyclical lens. The consensus assumes U.S. monetary easing, a softer dollar and a modest global slowdown will favor local-currency assets, credible disinflation paths and balance-sheet repair. This narrative is historically grounded and internally coherent. It is also increasingly insufficient.
By Medha Prasanna
Without intentional strategies to strengthen energy infrastructure, the Global South will remain largely a consumer of AI technologies.
By Brian Webster, Alan Gelb, and Anit Mukherjee
Shifting the payment of social transfers from cash to direct deposit via bank or mobile money accounts can directly improve efficiency for governments and convenience for beneficiaries. It may also produce positive spillovers such as boosting financial inclusion and empowering women. But do these spillovers materialize, and under what circumstances?
By Udaibir Das
The Trevor Manuel G20 Africa Expert Panel Report reframes Africa’s constraints as a single system of mispricing, debt compression and governance asymmetry. Its proposals for refinancing, collective bargaining and International Monetary Fund quota reform mark the first coordinated attempt to shift power within the international financial architecture.
By Udaibir Das
As concessional finance declines, vulnerabilities mount and aid priorities shift, vulnerable low-income countries must increasingly rely on domestic sources of funding. Efficient capital markets are not a luxury – they are foundational infrastructure for economic growth.
By Linda Nhon and Andreas Kuehn
Trump 2.0’s overall policy directions in critical and emerging technologies will likely hew to common expectations. The details, however, of what technologies the new administration will prioritise and how actions, such as tariffs and export controls for example, will affect the United States’ (US) innovation and technology leadership remains underexplored.
By Dhruva Jaishankar
Learnings from Delhi’s past should help in shaping the future as India bets big on new critical technologies.
By Udaibir Das
The key question is not whether the decline in aid and external assistance will push these economies towards more debt – it already does – but rather what kind of debt they will incur and what long-term implications it will bring.
By Dhruva Jaishankar
The EU and India both have apprehensions about China’s economic and manufacturing supremacy threatening employment and businesses at home.
By Dhruva Jaishankar
Trump and Modi announced a wide-ranging agenda to take the bilateral relationship forward. It included efforts that built upon the progress made during the Biden administration, particularly in terms of technology, defense, and regional cooperation.
By Dhruva Jaishankar
Understandably, Germany will be preoccupied in the short term with Europe’s eastern and southern flanks, the transatlantic relationship, and the Middle East, but Berlin has important economic and security interests in the Indo-Pacific.
By Udaibir Das
As AI takes on a greater role in economic analysis and policy, an unsettling question arises: will its ability to recognise systemic risks with historical precedents weaken with a lack of immediate algorithmic reference?
By Udaibir Das
The world’s most populous democracy faces a turbulent landscape of geopolitical rivalries, technological shifts and the urgency of climate action. The question remains: will global economic forces propel India toward leadership or will they impede its ascent?
By Udaibir Das
In 2024, Africa’s economic and political importance grew significantly, laying a strong foundation for 2025 to be a transformative year for the continent.
By Vivek Mishra
Indian leadership must remain cautious as "America First" will loom heavy on Trump's foreign policy. As transfer of technology is of high priority for India in defense collaborations, elements of this sector will likely be at odds with Trump’s agenda.
By Vivek Mishra
As India and CARICOM prepare for the next summit, this partnership promises to be a cornerstone of India’s expanded global engagement in the years to come.
This volume of short working papers is a product of ORF America’s U.S.-India Emerging Climate Leaders as they attempt to develop ideas around climate collaboration and communication for the United States and India.
Special Report
By Abigail Doerr, Amol Kapoor, Bhagyashri Kulkarni, Dhruva Jaishankar, Jonika Rathi, Karan Sinha, Lindsay Maizland, Medha Prasanna, Meenakshi Venkatraman, Miaoru Guan, Mridu Jhangiani, Pankaj Mahalle, Patrick Soltis, Paul Gordon, Perrin Krisko, Sabareesh Suresh, Tanya Kak, Vandita Sariya, Vanshica Kant, and Vedant Patil
Editors: Caroline Arkalji, Jeffrey D. Bean, and Medha Prasanna
By Vivek Mishra
How does the Indian Ocean fits into the United States’ broader assertion as a regional power, especially with the United States shifting to a more collaborative strategy that emphasizes shared leadership?
By Vivek Mishra
As the US judiciary continues to grapple with its internal divisions, the fallout from such cases similar to Gautam Adani’s situation will likely influence not only US-India relations but also the broader dynamics of international investment and diplomacy.
By Vivek Mishra
Trump’s victory potentially marks a shift on multiple fronts as his second administration will be intent on changing the focus of the US both internally and externally.
By Anit Mukherjee
With the Indian prime minister’s and external affairs minister’s recent visits to Latin America, the engagements are a sign of India’s deepening commitment to improve and strengthen strategic and economic ties with the region where it is still playing catch up to China.
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